2nd wave of YouGov/CBS News/NYT polls out

[Panda Express]

Difference between the youngest (18-29) and the oldest (65+) voters in the states where there are stats on both:

New Jersey: 72%
Georgia: 63%
Texas: 58%
North Carolina: 55%
Virginia: 53%
South Carolina: 51%
Colorado: 47%
Mississippi: 46%
Illinois: 45%
Idaho: 44%
Oregon: 43%
Iowa: 33%
Louisiana: 32%
Arkansas: 31%
Alaska: 27%
Kentucky: 26%
Massachusetts: 26%
Minnesota: 26%
Michigan: 23%
Delaware: 22%
New Hampshire: 22%
Nebraska: 19%
West Virginia: 16%
New Mexico: 11%
Maine: 7%
Rhode Island: -2%

Some states don't have a sufficiently large sample of 18-29 year olds, so in those cases I can only compare the second youngest demographic (30-44) with the oldest one (65+):

Wyoming: 54%
Hawaii: 38%
Kansas: 31%
South Dakota: 25%
Montana: 23%
Oklahoma: 19%
Tennessee: 5%

I did not include Alabama, since the senator is running unopposed there.

Clearly, Cory Booker has a massive fan base with younger voters! His lead with 18-29 year olds in NJ is a whooping 73-8. And with blacks, it's 87-0.

The median difference between the youngest and the oldest age cohorts is 31.5%. The only state where the old group was just as liberal, or perhaps even slightly more so (although it's way within the margin of error), than the youngest voters, is Rhode Island. In the other 32 states, young voters were always, and usually substantially (with the exceptions of Tennessee and Maine), more Democratic-friendly.

If these stats can tell us something about the bigger political picture in the states surveyed, including something about where the states are headed, partisanly speaking, we can probably expect the following six states to either remain where they are now or head in a more conservative, Republican-friendly direction: Rhode Island, Tennessee, Maine, New Mexico, West Virginia and Nebraska.

On the other hand, the following 13 states will almost certainly drift in a more Democratic direction over the next 5-10-15-20 years: New Jersey, Georgia, Texas, North Carolina, Wyoming, Virginia, South Carolina, Colorado, Mississippi, Illinois, Idaho, Oregon and Hawaii. Notice that 6 of these 13 states are located in the south, clearly the region where Democrats have the most potential of further gains in the future. Also, 7 of the 13 (NC included) are currently Republican states [at the presidential level at least]. The fact that only two states show more potential for Democratic growth than Texas, seems to counteract all the naysayers who keep claiming that there's no way that the Republican advantage in the state will loosen considerably over the next decade (or two). Young voters are already voting Democratic in Texas, at least if we are to believe this YouGov poll.

However it is true, according to the poll, that Georgia has come a much longer way than Texas when it comes to turning into a purple state. There are two main reasons for that. The first, and less important, is that whites in Texas are slightly more Republican-friendly than in Georgia, plus the obvious fact that Hispanics in Texas will never become as Democratic as blacks in Georgia. The more important reason is that the demographic tilt is much younger in Texas than in Georgia. With that I mean that the dividing line seems to be at about 50 years in Georgia. Those older than 50 are usually voting Republican, while those younger are mostly voting Democratic. In Texas, the diving line is a whole 10 years younger, at about 40 years. So those younger than 40 in Texas more often than not vote Democratic. So once Georgia turns in to a battleground, we'd have to expect to wait at least (or about) 10 more years in order to see the same phenomenon happen in Texas.

I wouldn't worry about trying to analyze/draw conclusions from these, dude. These are crappy internet polls.