If Cuomo lost the primary...

[Panda Express]

I could see several different scenarios occurring.

1. Teachout, after winning an unexpected primary victory gets a lot more scrutiny cast upon her and her lack of political experience causes her to fizzle out (like Joe Miller in Alaska in 2010). Cuomo ends up winning.

2. Cuomo is able to consolidate a decent chunk of the Republicans, independents and some democrats while Teachout gets the solid progressives. Asteroid ends up collapsing. Cuomo wins in similar fashion to Lieberman over Lamont in 2006.

3. Cuomo, after being embarrassed in the primary, loses party support and voter support and collapses. With Cuomo not taking too much support from her, Teachout wins over Asteroid without too much trouble.  

4. It's 33-33-33 and any one of them ends up winning.