Who will win in Iowa?

[NHLiberal]

Iowa was never supposed to be competitive at all, even assuming a good GOP year.  So the fact that a recovering Braley campaign is starting to build a lead isn't really that surprising.  My hunch is that Braley will win, but the building GOP wave might be enough to sweep Ernst into office.

We've explained so many times now that there is NOT a "building GOP wave;" that Democrats are holding their own in the House races and poised to pick up some governorships, and the only reason for a big Senate flip is because we are seeing a reversion to the mean from the major Democratic gains in 2008. What signals are there of a huge GOP wave? Because Republicans picking up seats in heavily red states isn't a GOP wave; that's a return to normalcy. In a GOP wave, Walker, Snyder, Deal, and Brownback would be safe, LePage would be doing better, and Democrats wouldn't stand a chance in the Kentucky, Georgia, or Kansas Senate races (or Arkansas/Louisiana to be honest, where they are currently at a disadvantage but still definitely in the race).

See the links below for further clarification:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=198394.msg4293061#msg4293061
https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=198394.msg4293083#msg4293083
https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=198394.msg4293276#msg4293276
https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=198394.msg4293398#msg4293398
https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=198210.msg4288563#msg4288563
https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=198210.msg4288589#msg4288589
https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=198242.msg4289193#msg4289193

I really don't feel like explaining this again, and I'm sure a lot of the other posters who have been saying the same thing feel the same way.

[NHLiberal]

Iowa was never supposed to be competitive at all, even assuming a good GOP year.  So the fact that a recovering Braley campaign is starting to build a lead isn't really that surprising.  My hunch is that Braley will win, but the building GOP wave might be enough to sweep Ernst into office.

We've explained so many times now that there is NOT a "building GOP wave;" that Democrats are holding their own in the House races and poised to pick up some governorships, and the only reason for a big Senate flip is because we are seeing a reversion to the mean from the major Democratic gains in 2008. What signals are there of a huge GOP wave? Because Republicans picking up seats in heavily red states isn't a GOP wave; that's a return to normalcy. In a GOP wave, Walker, Snyder, Deal, and Brownback would be safe, LePage would be doing better, and Democrats wouldn't stand a chance in the Kentucky, Georgia, or Kansas Senate races (or Arkansas/Louisiana to be honest, where they are currently at a disadvantage but still definitely in the race).

See the links below for further clarification:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=198394.msg4293061#msg4293061
https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=198394.msg4293083#msg4293083
https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=198394.msg4293276#msg4293276
https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=198394.msg4293398#msg4293398
https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=198210.msg4288563#msg4288563
https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=198210.msg4288589#msg4288589
https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=198242.msg4289193#msg4289193

I really don't feel like explaining this again, and I'm sure a lot of the other posters who have been saying the same thing feel the same way.

And, yet, the wave still builds.

How do you define a Republican wave? If you count picking up several seats in heavily Republican states while picking off a few low hanging fruits in the House and losing or barely winning a handful of governorships, then sure, it's a wave. But if you define wave like any political observer, please show me where the wave is building.

You are basically saying "The fact that Republicans might win Iowa shows that a wave is building" while also saying "Since a wave is building, Republicans might win Iowa." That's circular reasoning, and it doesn't work. If you want to say that Republicans might win Iowa because a bigger wave is building, you have to show me where that wave is coming from. But if Republicans don't win Iowa or Colorado and come out neutral/with a small gain in governorships, both of which wouldn't happen if the elections were held today, then that's not a wave.

[NHLiberal]

Saying things like "the building GOP wave" is one of the litany of reasons for why Republicans in general are hard to take seriously these days.

Yeah, I guess I shouldn't be trying to counter his edgy statements with facts and evidence cause he's just doing it to get a rise. Probably not worth my time when you look at his hilarious Colorado predictions from past years.