State of the Senate

[NHLiberal]

In a few sentences, how would you sum up the overall state of the battle for control of the Senate from a big-picture perspective?

My answer:

The GOP is a virtual lock to pick up three Senate seats, South Dakota, West Virginia, and Montana, and are modest favorites to pick up two more seats, Arkansas and Louisiana. That said, I am confident that Democrats will manage to prevail in three of the other toss-up races on Election Day: North Carolina, Iowa, and Colorado. As a result, I have Senate control hinging on the notoriously difficult to poll Alaska, the purest of toss-ups. Of course, that would be moot if Democrats are able to pick up one of their three target seats, Kentucky, Georgia, or Kansas, all of which at least tilt Republican but none of which are too far off from toss-up status.

[NHLiberal]

Republicans are strongly favored to pick up three seats in Montana, South Dakota, and West Virginia, and reasonably favored to pick up three more in Alaska, Arkansas, and Louisiana. Four races look like pure tossups, Kansas (actually held by the Republicans), Colorado, Iowa, and North Carolina; KS and NC tilt very slightly Republican, while CO and IA are the opposite, though the Democrats have been a running an inept campaign in Iowa; the Republicans have been doing this in Kansas. Beyond that, Democrats are reasonably favored to hold Michigan and New Hampshire, while Republicans are reasonably favored to hold Georgia and Kentucky, with races beyond that largely safe for both parties. The likeliest result right now is R+7 (a Republican majority of 52-48), but anything between R+3 and R+11 is easy to make a realistic map for, and by including 'safe' races where a slight (say, 1%) chance exists for the other party you can get a result anywhere between D+1 and R+15.

Republicans are mildly favored to take the Senate, in other words, largely on the strength of Romney states, but are having trouble expanding into Obama territory and their takeover of the Senate is as yet by no means guaranteed.

Other than these two, I agree with your assessment. Alaska is a pure toss-up, as is NC (though the tiniest of Dem advantages in the latter).