AZ-PrimR/Magellan (R): Ducey ahead, Jones fading, Smith with the momentum

[NHLiberal]

Do Dems have a chance here?

I think it's pretty universally ranked as "Lean R," mostly because there's been very little polling and the primary is so unclear. It will probably shift one way or another (to toss-up status or stronger Republican advantage) once we know who the Republican nominee is and we get some better polling of the general.