The analysis is fair, but the numbers are a joke.
Agreed that this is a joke poll, but coming from someone who thought Foley was going to win and wanted him to win until yesterday, you're going to have to accept that Malloy very well may be up in the next legitimate poll we get. I think Foley's comments were a bigger deal than you're making them out to be.
I think you're wrong -- they've barely got any coverage outside of this forum. NYT/CBS has a poll showing Foley up by 9% ... I can't link, but: WFSB.com and then go to Politics
That was from before the press conference. Like I said, I was fully convinced that Foley would win and certainly wanted him to as well. So this isn't bias talking, it's realism. A gaffe like this matters more in a state where the challenger from the minority party is being given a chance by otherwise majority party voters; they need a lot less of a reason to switch back to who they'd instinctually be supporting in the first place.
Trust me, I still hope Foley is able to win, but I'm a lot less optimistic than before. I had it as a toss-up then, and I'm leaving it as a toss-up, but it definitely goes from a tilting R tossup to a tilting D tossup.
