So, we're trying to find out which seat will be the sixth Republican pickup should that happen in November on election night. I'm going to use Eastern time for every race here.
For starts, Kentucky and Georgia both fully close at 7:00 p.m, but I have my doubts that either race will be called when the polls close. Perdue will probably win sometime before midnight. McConnell might take some time to win, but he should ultimately achieve victory before the sixth Republican pickup.
I think pickup #1 happens in West Virginia at 7:30 p.m.
North Carolina closes at the same time, but I'm expecting that the election will be so close that it won't be called early in the night.
Arkansas closes at 8:30 p.m., and I expect that this race will be called for Cotton at this time or shortly thereafter (pickup #2).
South Dakota fully closes at 9:00 p.m. and is called for Rounds (pickup #3). At the same time, polls in Colorado and Louisiana close. Colorado is too close to call, and it soon becomes clear that Louisiana will be thrown to a December runoff.
Montana closes at 10:00 p.m and is called for Daines (pickup #4). Iowa also closes, but the race is too close to call.
Alaska closes at 12:00 a.m., and is called for Sullivan - who I expect will be the GOP nominee - soon after (pickup #5).
This is where it gets tricky to determine the sixth Republican pickup will come from. North Carolina will probably be taken out of the equation. Similarly, Colorado could take quite some time, possibly being called for either Udall or Gardner on Wednesday morning or evening, or even Thursday. That ultimately ;eaves Iowa as the lynchpin. The race there could very well be called for Ernst and end up as pickup #6 after midnight, at say, 2:00 or 3:00 a.m. On the other hand, if Ernst doesn't win, it could be several days before control of the Senate is determined by either North Carolina or Colorado, most likely North Carolina, but if Democrats win both of those seats, Cris could be right about Louisana being pickup #6.
As I've tried to explain before (
https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=194446.msg4215820#msg4215820), the tipping point state/race is based on margin of victory, not time of call. But I agree with this for the most part, other than Alaska being called shortly after the polls closing.
