Rating the Gubernatorial Races

[NHLiberal]

Yes...
1. PA - Corbett (Likely D Pickup)

Likelier than not...
2. ME - LePage (Lean D Pickup)
3. FL - Scott (Lean D Pickup)
4. IL - Quinn (Toss-Up)

Could go either way...
5. KS - Brownback (Toss-Up)
6. CT - Malloy (Toss-Up)
7. AR - OPEN (Toss-Up)
8. MI - Snyder (Toss-Up)
9. GA - Deal (Lean R)

Incumbent party is favored, but a pickup is quite possible
10. WI - Walker (Lean R)
11. AZ - OPEN (Lean R)
12. OH - Kasich (Lean R)
13. SC - Haley (Lean R)
14. HI - Abercrombie  (Likely D)
15. CO - Hickenlooper (Likely D)

Highly improbable...
16. NE - OPEN (Likely R)
17. NM - Martinez (Likely R)
18. IA - Branstad (Likely R)
19. MA - OPEN (Likely D)
20. RI - OPEN (Likely D)
21. OR - Kitzhaber (Safe D)
22. MN - Dayton (Safe D)
23. MD - OPEN (Safe D)

Live boy or dead girl...or a strong challenge from the Progressive Party of Vermont
24. NH - Hassan (Safe D)
25. TX - OPEN (Safe R)
26. NV - Sandoval (Safe R)
27. AK - Parnell (Safe R)
28. OK - Fallin (Safe R)
29. SD - Dauggard (Safe R)
30. TN - Haslam (Safe R)
31. VT - Shumlin (Safe D)

LOL
32. CA - Brown (Safe D)
33. AL - Bentley (Safe R)
34. WY - Mead (Safe R)
35. ID - Otter (Safe R)
36. NY - Cuomo (Safe D)





UPDATES

6/23: Nebraska Safe R ---> Likely R
6/25: Kansas Lean R ---> Toss Up

[NHLiberal]

Lean D
California

...

[NHLiberal]

Somehow, my rankings/analysis on all of these exceeded the character limit (I really should start limiting how much I say from now on lol ), so I'll put them in 2 different posts.

These are from most likely to see a party switch in a seat to least likely:

1) Pennsylvania (Likely D) - Corbett has so much baggage that it will be nearly impossible for him to hold on, but Wolf also has a little baggage from management and racial problems and there's still the lodged fact that he's the incumbent which means he's got a lot to stride on to avoid being the first PA Governor to be defeated.

2) Maine (Lean D) - LePage is really banking way too much on Cutler's impact on the race given all of LePage's constant gaffes. Cutler already said if it became apparent he couldn't win, to vote for Michaud and obviously most of those Cutler defectees will do so. It will be interesting though to see if Collins and Raye have any impact on this race, if any, at all.

3) Arkansas (Lean R) - Beebe might be really popular, but Ross made a rookie mistake in coming out in favor of marijuana legalization. He's socially conservative on a lot of other ends, but AR voters overwhelmingly oppose marijuana and voted against medical marijuana in 2012. I don't think this is the main reason for why Ross out of nowhere is trailing Asa, but it sure doesn't help, either. If he continues to express his Bluedog views though and gets Beebe and Clinton to campaign for him some more, he could potentially turn this around again.

4) Florida (Tossup) - What used to be the 2nd most likely pickup is now the 4th, unfortunately. Crist and the FDP need to step up their game not only in money and ads, but work on trust and turnout among liberal voters especially around Miami. Just amazing how this went from Crist +10 to Scott +2.

5) Wisconsin (Tossup) - A true tossup here. Given how much 2016's at stake here, the RGA will do all in it's power to make sure Walker's re-elected, but with the controversy over voter ID, cutting funding for public schools, refusing to expand Medicaid, union busting, being the new Mr. Ultrasound, and having himself in a scandal, the sympathy voters who opposed the runoff and voted against Barrett won't be voting against Burke this time.

6) Ohio (Tossup) - I did have it before as tossup/tilt R, but Kasich's ad power has worn off and things are starting to look good for OH Dems and awful for the Kasich administration. There's another heavily controversial abortion bill in the legislature now which would ban insurance from covering abortion in all cases which Kasich would likely sign if it makes it to his desk. Kasich also recently signed SB310 which will ultimately raise electricity bills for working and middle class families. There's also new info leaking in Frackinggate with Kasich and then his best bud Josh Mandel is in some heat as well involving illegal campaign contributions which will likely bring Mandel down and subsequently take some votes away from other Republican officials. On our side of the aisle, FitzGerald got the endorsement of a lifetime from President Clinton who said he would vote for FitzGerald based on his resume which might further help FitzGerald around coal country. His new fundraising numbers have increased a little bit, to and we’ll be on the air very, very soon!

7) Michigan (Tossup) – Aside from Georgia, the DGA is dumping loads of money into this race and out of all Midwestern Governors, Snyder will probably be the prime target of the unions. All the polling has been terrible here except for PPP who suggest this is really within a few points even with Schauer’s lack of name recognition.

8 ) Illinois (Tossup/Tilt D) - Quinn might be very unpopular and starting to face the proverbial scandal path that IL Gov's are known for, but the popular Durbin will be on the same ballot as him which could boost much needed turnout from the Obama machine in Cook County and elsewhere. Rauner is just like Romney, only instead of flopping to the right, he's flopping to the left and I just don't think Illinois will buy into it. He’s still in trouble, though.

9) Kansas (Tossup/Tilt R) – I’m inclined to partially agree with tmth on this race in that it looks vulnerable, but will start shifting away from us as there gets to be less undecided’s and Paul Davis’ record becomes more well-known among Kansans. Still, Brownback is one of the most unpopular Governors in the country (more unpopular than Corbett, actually) and can still potentially go down.

10) Arizona (Tossup/Tilt R) –   Because it’s Arizona and we don’t have the strongest Democratic candidate that we could have had, this still tilts in the GOP’s favor until we start getting more into the campaign, but with the frontrunners for the GOP nomination being between an anti-Obama, Tea Party-backed ice cream owner and a self-funding, Ted Nugent-like gun supporter, I like our chances.

11) Georgia (Lean R) – I only give GA this rating because people seem to forget that Carter will somehow need to get 50% +1 to avoid a runoff (where he would most likely lose to Deal). Deal is unpopular no doubt, but most Deal haters will just go for the Libertarian as the polls imply and strong campaign or not, Carter can’t seal the deal if he doesn’t get 50% on November 4th.

12) Connecticut (Lean D) – It’s an accepted belief that undecided’s will most likely break for Malloy. Foley has the possibility to make this race close though and there is a spoiler Independent (former Democrat) candidate who might make the ballot.

13) Hawaii (Lean D) – This should be likely D, but Hanneman, a former populist Democrat, is in this race and it’s hard to say right now whether he’ll hurt Abercrombie or Aiona. The current polling is lackluster, but Aiona is a great candidate and if he runs on a more socially liberal record this year, could pull a surprise upset.

14) New Mexico (Lean R) – This is really on the borderline of lean-likely. King’s high name ID should be a problem for Martinez even if King is viewed unfavorably. It’s a low-profile race, but it’s one to watch if Dems are adamant about knocking off a great VP pick for Republicans.

15) Iowa (Lean R) – Like NM, this is really, really close to being likely R. This could have been competitive if a strong Democrat got in, but with a weak candidate like Hatch, most polls show Branstad still up by high single digits. Still, Hatch has a lot of ground he can make up when 60% of Iowa voters have no opinion of him and Branstad’s under 44% approval’s amid scandal.

16) Rhode Island (Likely D) – Given how the Democrats are destroying each other in the primary, RI’s huge unemployment rate, Gov. Chafee’s unpopularity, and the state’s elasticity, this definitely isn’t safe yet. It will be a stretch for Republicans here, but history is at least on their side when it comes to holding the Governorship in modern-day.

17) Nebraska (Likely R) – Ricketts has proven he can somehow manage to lose in landslides in Nebraska. Not that Hassebrook is Nelson by any means, but if you ignore the internal, Rassy still had this race in single digits and it’s because of Ricketts’ unpopularity and Hassebrook actually being a decent candidate who can potentially do well among rural voters. It is Nebraska though so I wouldn’t get our hopes up.

18) South Carolina (Likely R) – Haley’s approvals and the economy are improving, but she isn’t to that safe point, yet. Sheheen’s best shot is if Ervin and the Libertarian can steal enough votes from her.

Who says that?

Gun to my head, Malloy loses. CT is a likelier R pickup than Arkansas (both are toss-ups though, and IL is still the likeliest of the R pickups (also a toss-up))

[NHLiberal]

7/12 Updates
FL: Lean D Pickup ---> Toss Up; 3rd likeliest to flip ---> 5th likeliest to flip; "Likelier than not" ---> "Could go either way"
KS: "Could go either way" ---> "Likelier than not ; 5th likeliest to flip ---> 4th likeliest to flip (Still Toss-Up)
GA: Lean R ---> Toss-Up (Still 9th likeliest to flip)
WI: Lean R ---> Toss-Up; "Incumbent party is favored" ---> "Could go either way" (Still 10th likeliest to flip)

SC: 13th likeliest to flip ---> 11th likeliest to flip (Still Lean R)
OH: 12th likeliest to flip ---> 13th likeliest to flip (Still Lean R)
AZ: 11th likeliest to flip ---> 12th likeliest to flip (Still Lean R)

CO: 15th likeliest to flip ---> 14th likeliest to flip; Likely D ---> Lean D
HI: 14th likeliest to flip --->15th likeliest to flip; Likely D ---> Lean D

MA: 19th likeliest to flip ---> 17th likeliest to flip (Still Likely D)
NM: 17th likeliest to flip ---> 19th likeliest to flip (Still Likely R)

MD: 23rd likeliest to flip ---> 21st likeliest to flip (Still Safe D)
OR: 21st likeliest to flip ---> 22nd likeliest to flip (Still Safe D)
MN: 22nd likeliest to flip ---> 23rd likeliest to flip (Still Safe D)

New Ratings
Yes...
1. PA - Corbett (Likely D Pickup)

Likelier than not...
2. ME - LePage (Lean D Pickup)
3. IL - Quinn (Toss-Up)
4. KS - Brownback (Toss-Up)

Could go either way...
5. FL - Scott (Toss-Up)
6. CT - Malloy (Toss-Up)
7. AR - OPEN (Toss-Up)
8. MI - Snyder (Toss-Up)
9. GA - Deal (Toss-Up)
10. WI - Walker (Toss-Up)

Incumbent party is favored, but a pickup is quite possible
11. SC - Haley (Lean R)
12. AZ - OPEN (Lean R)
13. OH - Kasich (Lean R)
14. CO - Hickenlooper  (Lean D)
15. HI - Abercrombie (Lean D)

Highly improbable...
16. NE - OPEN (Likely R)
17. MA - OPEN (Likely D)
18. IA - Branstad (Likely R)
19. NM - Martinez (Likely R)
20. RI - OPEN (Likely D)
21. MD - OPEN (Safe D)
22. OR - Kitzhaber (Safe D)
23. MN - Dayton (Safe D)

Live boy or dead girl...or a strong challenge from the Progressive Party of Vermont
24. NH - Hassan (Safe D)
25. TX - OPEN (Safe R)
26. NV - Sandoval (Safe R)
27. AK - Parnell (Safe R)
28. OK - Fallin (Safe R)
29. SD - Dauggard (Safe R)
30. TN - Haslam (Safe R)
31. VT - Shumlin (Safe D)

LOL
32. CA - Brown (Safe D)
33. AL - Bentley (Safe R)
34. WY - Mead (Safe R)
35. ID - Otter (Safe R)
36. NY - Cuomo (Safe D)

Gun to my head, the first 11 flip for a total net gain of D+5

[NHLiberal]

Current Overall Prediction: PA, AR, IL, ME, and FL all flip (D+1)

Approximate odds of flipping (excluding races safe for the incumbent party):

1. PA (Chance of flipping: 97%) (Corbett should really just concede today)
2. AR (Chance of flipping: 67%)
3. IL (Chance of flipping: 60%)
4. ME (Chance of flipping: 54%)
5. FL (Chance of flipping: 51%)
6. CT (Chance of flipping: 48%)
7. WI (Chance of flipping: 48%)
8. MI (Chance of flipping: 46%)
9. CO (Chance of flipping: 45%)
10. MA (Chance of flipping: 40%)
11. GA (Chance of flipping: 37%)
12. AZ (Chance of flipping: 35%)
13. SC (Chance of flipping: 35%)
14. OH (Chance of flipping: 30%)
15. NM (Chance of flipping: 12%)
16. RI  (Chance of flipping: 12%)
17. IA (Chance of flipping: 10%)
18. MD (Chance of flipping: 10%)
19. MN (Chance of flipping: 7%)

A note about KS, NE, and HI: All of these probably have about a 15-20% chance of flipping, but I don't permit myself to further change the ratings of races I rated safe at an earlier point in the cycle, so all three will remain at Safe D/R.

That's ridiculous. Kansas is honestly a toss-up at this point. I don't know why you have that bizarre policy in place, but it probably should never have been Safe R in the first place.