Congressional Special Elections Results Thread (OLD, PLEASE UNSTICKY)

[VPH]

For the record, the worst performance I can find for Republicans since they took the seat in 1994 was in 2000, when Todd Tiahrt won by *only* 12 points.

That's true if you only look at Congressional results.

Wasn't 1996 closer than 2000?

Yeah, Rathbun damn near won it in 1996.

[VPH]

I say:
Estes - 53%
Thompson - 43%
Rockhold - 4%

As a Wichitan, I know by any mean this is a hell of an uphill battle. Here's what Thompson has going for him:
-Insane fundraising numbers (for the 4th district)
-Strong grassroots support in Wichita's young professional community (we'll see if there are enough "new Wichitans" to propel him to victory)
-He's strongly pro-gun
-The field operation is incredibly strong, and there are thousands of volunteers on the ground and on the phones
-Estes hasn't really been campaigning much; his office has sat around empty for a while just before the election
-Estes somehow has less energy than Jeb Bush or Ben Carson, the guy is sooooo boring
-Paul Davis only lost the district by a few points, and Estes is strongly linked to unpopular Brownback

Here's what stands in his way though:
-This district bleeds red through and through-most Dems lose by 30
-Ted Cruz remains very popular with the large Evangelical population
-Abortion ads will hit Thompson hard, even though they're false; Abortion is even more of a fault line in Wichita than most places thanks to the Summer of Mercy and then years later, Dr. Tiller's killing
-Estes was the former county treasurer and current state treasurer, so people know him
-Will Black and Latino Democrats in Wichita turn out? There was a big turnout dropoff in 2014 and even from the presidential race to the congressional race in 2016

[VPH]

I say:
Estes - 53%
Thompson - 43%
Rockhold - 4%

As a Wichitan, I know by any mean this is a hell of an uphill battle. Here's what Thompson has going for him:
-Insane fundraising numbers (for the 4th district)
-Strong grassroots support in Wichita's young professional community (we'll see if there are enough "new Wichitans" to propel him to victory)
-He's strongly pro-gun
-The field operation is incredibly strong, and there are thousands of volunteers on the ground and on the phones
-Estes hasn't really been campaigning much; his office has sat around empty for a while just before the election
-Estes somehow has less energy than Jeb Bush or Ben Carson, the guy is sooooo boring
-Paul Davis only lost the district by a few points, and Estes is strongly linked to unpopular Brownback

Here's what stands in his way though:
-This district bleeds red through and through-most Dems lose by 30
-Ted Cruz remains very popular with the large Evangelical population
-Abortion ads will hit Thompson hard, even though they're false; Abortion is even more of a fault line in Wichita than most places thanks to the Summer of Mercy and then years later, Dr. Tiller's killing
-Estes was the former county treasurer and current state treasurer, so people know him
-Will Black and Latino Democrats in Wichita turn out? There was a big turnout dropoff in 2014 and even from the presidential race to the congressional race in 2016

Isn't Wichita the biggest city in Kansas?  I know it's still a medium sized city, but it's a bit odd when the biggest city in a state is heavily Republican.

I think the city of Wichita itself is more of a toss-up city, with the area outside the city which makes up about 25% of the counties population pushes Sedgwick County to be a very reliable Republican County.

City proper of Wichita has a GOP mayor and voted 49-40 for Trump over Hillary.

[VPH]

If the race is within 10, Thompson is probably winning Sedgwick County.

Davis lost by 6 without winning Sedgwick.

[VPH]

Edwards going 74-24 for Estes, with 9/15 in.

Weaker than Paul Davis who got 30% there, but FAR ahead of Hillary.

[VPH]

Honestly it's all about Wichita now. Thompson is not doing as well as he needs to be in rural areas.

[VPH]

I'm increasingly thinking that Estes pulls this one out, but the fact that it's this close is terrifying.

[VPH]

https://twitter.com/pmiller1693/status/851971019657162752

Thompson running well ahead of Davis in Wichita's Davis-Trump precincts. Good sign.

[VPH]

Bummed out because it was *so close* but this really is incredible.

[VPH]

I'm curious to see how Bennett does. He's a character alright, and he has the family name.

[VPH]

Allen doing respectably in Carbon County, which used to be Democratic and she did amazing in Grand County!