Honest John

[VPH]

CNN-John Edwards Announces Presidential Campaign

December 28th, 2006:

Today, in New Orleans, Louisiana, still reeling from the tragedy of Hurricane Katrina just last year, North Carolina Senator John Edwards declared the start of his campaign for president in 2008. John Edwards, the son of a mill worker, has served in the US senate representing North Carolina since 1998. During his tenure, he has generally been a solidly liberal Democrat, although he voted for Iraq and has since expressed regret for that vote. With the backdrop of damaged houses, Edwards discussed his plans moving forward and his ambitions to run for president, joining former Alaska Senator Mike Gravel and US Representative Dennis Kucinich in the race. Edwards represents the first major entrant into the field, although sources state that Senator Hillary Clinton, Senator Evan Bayh, and Reverend Al Sharpton are close to entering the race. Senator Barack Obama recently put an end to rumors of his political ambitions, claiming that he would sit out this cycle to focus on the senate instead.


Following is an excerpt of Edwards' announcement:

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John Edwards Announces Campaign Staff and Endorsements Revealed

-December 29, 2006

Campaign Manager: David Bonoir
Campaign Chair: Tad Devine
Senior Strategist: Joe Trippi
Policy Strategist: Heather Higginbottom
Media Director: David Axelrod
Field Director:    Craig Varoga
Scheduler: Alexis Bar
Rural Coordinators: Dave 'Mudcat' Saunders and Steve Jarding
Online Director: Zephyr Teachout


Endorsements Announced Today
Sen. Jim Webb (VA)
Gov. Brad Henry (OK)
Gov. Brian Schweitzer (MT)
Gov. Mike Easley (NC)
NC Congressional Democratic Delegation
Rep. David Obey (WI-7)
Rep. Mike Michaud (ME-2)
Rep. Baron Hill (IN-9)
Rep. Marcy Kaptur (OH-9)
Rep. Charlie Gonzalez (TX-20)
Rep. Nick Rahall (WV-3)
Fmr. Sen. Tom Daschle (SD)
Fmr. Gov. Tony Knowles (AK)
Fmr. Sen. Jean Carnahan (MO)

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A Look Inside

Edwards: Hey, we need to talk strategy. What's our target audience and who poses the biggest threat? I'm worried most about Senator Clinton. She will be formidable. Biden could also put up a good fight. Glad Barack is staying out, though.

Trippi: We're not going to win unless we can pull off some early victories. Our base right now is likely in the South, among mainly White voters. We need to be able to make inroads into the Black community to win early states like South Carolina and Florida. For New Hampshire and Iowa we need to run strongly in small towns. Whether or not we can beat Clinton here will be the big test.

Bonior: I think Hillary starts with a big advantage here among Black voters. Sharpton will dig into her margins though. We need to be visiting Black communities and depressed White areas too.

Trippi: Remember, the Clintons are heavily respected in both those areas. Tell me why we can't tap into your energy John, and win over progressives? There's no way Clinton or Bayh will be able to win them, and Kuninich is not gonna gain much with anybody.

Edwards: Remember, I voted for the war too.

Bonior: Hillary won't apologize for her vote. Make it clear you had a change of mind and paint her as a war hawk. That'll help us gain with progressives.

Trippi: What if Bayh pushes her left by becoming the centrist option?

Bonior: That's it-trap her in the middle. Leave her rudderless on the Iraq issue and paint her as elitist. If we can take out Clinton's support among small town Whites and Black voters, we can pair it with progressive support to win. You better be spotless if this is to work, though. We're the underdogs here and a scandal will derail this bigtime.

Edwards: Don't worry about me-I promise I'm squeaky clean.

[VPH]

Senator Hillary Clinton Enters Race
January 10th, 2007: Washington, DC

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Senator Evan Bayh Enters Campaign
January 14th, 2007: Carmel, IN

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Governor Bill Richardson Mounts Campaign
January 16th, 2007: Santa Fe, NM

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Reverend Al Sharpton Enters Race
January 20th, 2007: Atlanta, Georgia

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[VPH]

Senator John McCain Declares
January 13th, 2007: Tuscon, AZ

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Former US Senator Lincoln Chafee-Surprise Bid for President
January 18th, 2007: Providence, RI

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Former Mass. Governor Mitt Romney Decides to Run
January 23rd, 2007: Concord, NH

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Kansas Senator Brownback Enters Race with Family Values Message
January 29th, 2007: Topeka, KS

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From New York to DC? Rudy Giuliani Prepares Campaign
February 5th, 2007: Manhattan, NY

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Former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum
February 11th, 2007: Lancaster, PA

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[VPH]

Back to the Dems
Progressive Firebrand Kucnich Declares Campaign
February 17th, 2007: Athens, OH

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Former Oregon Governor John Kitzhaber Enters Crowded Field
February 26th, 2007: Keene, NH

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[VPH]

Candidates Hit the Trail

April 13th, 2007

Over the past few months, after a wave of early campaign announcements, candidates have been hitting the road. Most have spent a good amount of time in Iowa and New Hampshire, the first two states, although most have branched out and visited other places. South Carolina, Nevada, and Florida for the GOP represent enticing targets. The main goal of this stage in the campaign is all about building up name recognition. Most candidates are attempting to visit all types of voters, but some political scientists note that, in a preliminary sense, there appears to be a few bases forming.

Different candidates appear to already have targets. Sam Brownback, for example, has spent a considerable amount of time touring heavily Evangelical and Catholic parts of Iowa, visiting church dinners and various other events where there is a large contingency of religious voters. Rick Santorum has followed a similar approach, setting up a potential battle for religious right voters.

On the Democratic side, Reverend Al Sharpton is spending time focusing on Black voters, trying to capitalize on his appeals in the community. Thus, he has spent more time in South Carolina and across the South than in the early 2 states. This opens up the notion that perhaps Reverend Sharpton plans to stay in the race regardless of results in Iowa and New Hampshire. The other candidates seem to be pursuing a broad coalition, although Dennis Kucinich and John Kitzhaber have spent more time than others on college campuses and other bastions of the left. Kucinich spent a few days last week in Jefferson County Iowa, where the Natural Law Party performed strangely well in 2000. The Democratic primaries promise to be intriguing, especially as some candidates scramble to be the most anti-Bush.

The first major polling on both the Democratic and Republican sides is set to be released next week.
Rumors float around about the potential entry of other candidates, but nobody knows for sure whether more will enter after the initial rush.

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Clinton, Romney Lead Early in Iowa
April 17th, 2007:

Des Moines Register (750 Likely Caucus Goers)

Republicans
Mitt Romney- 24%
John McCain- 22%
Sam Brownback- 21%
Rudy Giuliani- 19%
Rick Santorum- 12%
Lincoln Chafee- 2%

The GOP contest appears to be especially close in Iowa. Mitt Romney's high amount of resources has helped him establish a good presence in the state. John McCain's high name recognition and relatively strong resource pool has him right behind Mitt Romney. Sam Brownback, who appears to be marshaling a lower budget, yet highly effective values campaign, is surprising many observers who questioned whether or not he was a dynamic enough campaigner to do well. Rudy Giuliani also does relatively well in this poll, reflecting again on his name recognition and potentially on his strength with moderate Republicans.

Democrats
Hillary Clinton- 37%
John Edwards- 23%
Bill Richardson- 19%
Evan Bayh- 11%
John Kitzhaber- 7%
Dennis Kucinich- 3%
Al Sharpton- 0%

As expected, Hillary Clinton holds a substantial lead over all other candidates in Iowa. Simply put, more Iowans know who she is than any of the others. This advantage is crucial at this early stage, but as other candidates expand their campaign apparatuses, things may well change. John Edwards and Bill Richardson post decent numbers, reflecting their concentration on Iowa as the way forward. Also notable is Al Sharpton's polling at 0% (rounded). Only 3 respondents out of 750 selected him as their caucus choice.

[VPH]

Who Next?

April 19th, 2007

The presidential rumor mill continues to churn, even with a respectably sized field on each side of the aisle. Numerous politicians have been spotted in Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina touring or doing events. With activity in these early primary states, some guess at who may enter the campaign at this stage. Other potential candidates are not actively touring, but instead are the focus of "draft" efforts, in which websites and groups seek to drum up support for a potential candidacy.

Media outlets have approached a number of the rumored entrants, but received different answers from each one. None of those asked could confirm entry into the race, so for now these rumors are just that-rumors. Nonetheless, it could be important to evaluate these inklings, as many candidates could shape the race. Some have the potential to upend polls, especially in early states, while others advocate for unorthodox positions within their respective party, which could change the terms of debate. Some marshal large personal wealth, while others are known names. Following, we evaluate some of the major rumored entrants, going over how they could impact the race, what drives the rumors, and what the difficulties and opportunities could be for them if they enter.

First, we start with the Republican Party.

Representative Ron Paul (TX-14)

Representative Ron Paul is one of the GOP's most fascinating figures. The longtime representative stands for unorthodox Libertarian-leaning positions like returning to the gold standard, ending the Federal Reserve, and withdrawing from the Iraq War. While Chafee so far is the only Republican candidate to stand against the war, Paul would provide a more conservative, known voice against the conflict.

Rumors of his entry have been fueled by a large "Draft Ron Paul" movement online, led by Libertarian activists, many of them young. Over 20,000 people have already signed an online petition asking him to run, and Paul himself refused to deny that he was interested when asked. The real question is whether or not Paul finds himself too far away from the party line to receive the nomination. Perhaps, the major outcome from his potential entry into the race would be to moderate the stances of more hawkish frontrunners on Iraq by providing a contrast and galvanizing a conservative anti-war coalition.

Businessman Morry Taylor

This brash Titan International CEO ran in 1996 as a populist outsider candidate. His plainspoken, brash nature sets him apart from many of calculated politicians currently running. Taylor's campaign in 1996 fell flat, but it laid out an agenda focused on decreasing federal bureaucracy, cutting regulations, and reforming the political system. While most Americans don't know his name, Taylor's immense personal wealth, which he does not hesitate to talk about, could provide a springboard from support. Like Paul, he stands out notably from the rest of the field.

In the last few months, Taylor accounted a "Revive American Industry" tour, in which he has visited numerous cities in states like Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina. Last week, he spent 3 days in upcountry South Carolina and Appalachian Georgia touring textile plants and decaying mill towns. His speeches have focused on policy changes to revive industry, and while he has not announced a campaign, his response when asked was "I'm looking at all my options, weighing the cost and reward. I think the American people deserve much better than anybody else is proposing. We'll see". Taylor's weakness may come from his relative social liberalism, although it remains to be seen how Giuliani's similarly moderate social stances will play in religious primary states.

Representative Tom Tancredo (CO-6)

This controversial Congressman has one big issue-immigration reform. Tancredo has been one of the House's fiercest crusaders against what he considers to be "amnesty". With a number of candidates in the race who favor comprehensive immigration reform, it's possible that Tancredo will enter to advocate for a tougher border policy. He is not likely to find a path to victory, but perhaps he can break out in the debates to push a more closed-border narrative.

Tancredo is the subject of a small but growing online draft effort, centered around right wing blogs. Moreover, he increasingly has made appearances on network TV stations to discuss his immigration stances. Two months ago, Tancredo denied interest in the race, but in a statement to The Atlantic, he wrote: "I will be listening to the American people and the debate between current candidates over the next few weeks and months".


In the larger Democratic field, there are also a number of candidates considering entry into the race.

Former Governor Tom Vilsack (IA)

Tom Vilsack just departed from his second term in the Iowa governor's office, and is already allegedly considering a presidential campaign. Vilsack is known as a relatively moderate Democrat who worked with Republicans in the state legislature and fundraised through the Heartland PAC for Democratic gubernatorial candidates. His main issues are energy and agriculture.

Vilsack's fundraising acumen and executive experience could make him a contender. Moreover, he would likely win the Iowa Caucus and garner national attention. The knock against Vilsack, however, is that he lacks the energy candidates like John Edwards possess or the national name recognition of those like Hillary Clinton. It might be difficult for him to stand out in the current field. Nonetheless, Vilsack visited New Hampshire recently for a speech to the Coos County Democratic Party and noted that he "might consider" a run for president.

Retired General Wesley Clark

Many voters remember General Clark from his ill-fated 2004 campaign. That year, a draft effort resulted in his entry into the race, but he was plagued by uncertainty about his positions and lacking success with the media. However, since, he spent considerable time on the campaign trail for Democrats in 2006 and plans to release a memoir later this year. Clark's military experience would give him a strong stance on Iraq, and he is known as a charismatic speaker.

Once again, a Draft Clark effort has taken off online, and the retired General has attended speaking engagements in New Hampshire and Iowa. He's openly stated that he is "testing the waters" and listening to the concerns of voters. Wes Clark could really move the race, potentially undercutting John Edwards' target support in the South and Midwest.  Moreover, he could pose a threat to Clinton's chances while also undercutting some of the more progressive candidates through his experience. It remains to be seen, however, whether or not Clark has whetted his political skills enough.

Senator Joe Biden (DE)

Another candidate whose previous campaign efforts failed-in 1988 plagiarism doomed a young Joe Biden's bid-Biden would bring a friendly, frank, and charismatic face to the table. Biden's time in the Senate since 1972 gives him unparalleled experience, especially on issues of foreign policy and criminal justice. He could likely leverage this experience against other candidates. Biden's demeanor would also play well with the retail politics of Iowa and New Hampshire. However, he, like Vilsack, must differentiate himself from other candidates in order to be successful.

Biden has been speaking at engagements all across the US, but he has stopped in New Hampshire a few times in recent months. He addressed the campaign question with a response similar to others, claiming that he is "Just out here to listen to the people".


It remains to be seen how many candidates will enter, if any, into both the GOP and Democratic fields. A number of other names beyond these have been mentioned, albeit with less fanfare. Some outlets have bounced around the name of Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice as a Republican candidate, but she denied interest. Paleoconservative GOP Representative Walter Jones was recently mentioned in a few articles as a proposition, but his office released a statement denying interest. For Democrats, Former Senator Mike Gravel is the subject of some discussion but he refuses to reply to media requests. The race still has a long time to go, and things will likely change, but those entering later may face the broad disadvantage of not having established themselves early on.

[VPH]

It's 4/20-Activists Call for Drug Law Reform


Near Capitol Hill today, around 150 demonstrators protested in favor of marijuana legalization. Protesters picketed and chanted "make pot legal", and the smell of marijuana permeated the air around them. The federal prohibition on marijuana possession and use remains in place to this day, but an increasing number of Americans want to see this law repealed. Few candidates, however, have released any sort of statement on the issue. A look at their websites fails to reveal much, although Reverend Al Sharpton and Representative Dennis Kucinich both dedicate a portion of their published platforms to "ending mass incarceration" and "ending the war on drugs".

Edwards HQ


Higginbottom: Hey, John, come check out this article. I think we have an opportunity to stand out and capture youth voters. We ought to be careful though, because only 40% support full legalization.

John Edwards: We'd be the first big campaign to make a statement. I personally think we ought to decriminalize marijuana, cause that's a middle ground that won't offend folks but lets us reach out to various groups. What's your thought, Joe?

Trippi: I say we draft a press release and send it out to a few papers, maybe put something out on our website. It'll gain traction today.

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[VPH]

George W. Bush Unveils New Iraq Strategy

April 26th, 2007

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[VPH]

Candidates Split on Surge

After President Bush's recent announcement of a troop surge, fault lines deepened on foreign policy issues. Most Republicans, minus Lincoln Chafee, came out in support of the surge, although some held reservations about what would be done afterward to ensure stability. Generally, the GOP candidates praised the president's leadership on the issue, but Senator John McCain called the surge "frankly overdue and a testament to the politics of reaction, not preemption". This statement echoes McCain's positioning as a maverick Republican, willing to show new leadership. Senator Sam Brownback also stated that the United States must invest in aid for Christian communities impacted by violence in the region.

On the Democratic side, the reaction predictably strayed more towards opposition to the surge. However, Senator Evan Bayh stated to a crowd in Concord, NH that he feels "very divided on the surge", praising the efforts to defeat insurgents but offering up words of caution. Senators Hillary Clinton and John Edwards struck a similar tone in opposing the surge but praising the efforts of American troops. Edwards used the opportunity to demand an apology from Clinton for her vote for the war, but it remains to be seen whether this will come about. Governors John Kitzhaber, Bill Richardson, and Representative Dennis Kucinich lambasted the administration's decision as "shortsighted", "misguided", and "ridiculous" respectively.

[VPH]

Clinton, Romney Lead Early on in New Hampshire
May 2nd, 2007:


Republicans
Mitt Romney- 35%
John McCain- 25%
Rudy Giuliani- 14%
Rick Santorum- 12%
Sam Brownback- 9%
Lincoln Chafee- 5%

Mitt Romney leads the Republican field in his neighboring state of New Hampshire, followed by John McCain ten points behind him. The rest of the pack falls farther back. The most noteworthy result is the relative weakness of the Christian Right's chosen candidates in Sam Brownback and Rick Santorum. Neither is within the top 4, even as they perform well in Iowa.

Democrats
Hillary Clinton- 33%
John Edwards- 22%
Bill Richardson- 18%
John Kitzhaber- 15%
Evan Bayh- 8%
Dennis Kucinich- 4%
Al Sharpton- 0%
 
In the Democratic field, a similar result to Iowa unfolds. However, left-leaning candidates appear to be slightly stronger in New Hampshire, revealing a potentially deeper discontent with George W. Bush among the state's Democrats. Candidates like Bill Richardson and John Kitzhaber appear to be nudging upward, attempting to pull off a respectable result, or even victory perhaps.

[VPH]

Bayh Stumbles
May 4th, 2007
Keene, New Hampshire
Student protestors from Keene State University challenge Senator Bayh on his votes for the Iraq War and the Bush Tax Cuts, and chants of "bye bye Bayh" ring out as Bayh tries, and fails, to regain his footing. Instead of countering the charges, he simply attempted to change topic and was booed through the rest of his speech.

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Brownback Impresses in Iowa
May 6th, 2007
Senator Sam Brownback is hedging his bets on a strong performance in Iowa. Across the state, his social conservatism and strong campaign organization draw large crowds and have endeared him to some donors. When asked, attendees at Brownback rallies bring up a few different topics, including his anti-abortion credentials and his tax plan, which would radically lower corporate taxes and flatten the whole tax system. Republican strategists say Brownback is angling to be one of the most conservative major GOP candidates, competing against Rick Santorum. Santorum and Brownback hold many similar stances, although Santorum holds different views on some economic issues, having called for a renegotiation of NAFTA and supporting an increase in the minimum wage. While Santorum leads Brownback in New Hampshire, Iowa will be the big event for the two most socially conservative candidates.

[VPH]

The Griz on the Horizon-Morry Taylor Announces Republican Bid for President

May 25, 2007-Davenport, IA

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Washington Post: Morry Taylor announced his campaign for president today. If his name sounds familiar, it's because the tire magnate ran in 1996, but bowed out shortly into the campaign because of a lack of interest from the public. This time, he boasts that he learned from last time, claiming that he has what it takes to win now and again in November.

[VPH]

NEW POLLS RELEASED
June 10th, 2007

IOWA
Republicans
Sam Brownback- 25%
Mitt Romney- 23%
John McCain- 21%
Rudy Giuliani- 13%
Rick Santorum- 12%
Lincoln Chafee- 4%
Morry Taylor- 2%

Democrats
Hillary Clinton- 38%
John Edwards- 27%
Bill Richardson- 16%
John Kitzhaber- 10%
Evan Bayh- 6%
Dennis Kucinich- 3%
Al Sharpton- 0%

NEW HAMPSHIRE
Republicans
Mitt Romney- 32%
John McCain- 26%
Rudy Giuliani- 15%
Sam Brownback- 11%
Rick Santorum- 8%
Morry Taylor- 5%
Lincoln Chafee- 3%


Democrats
Hillary Clinton- 35%
John Edwards- 23%
Bill Richardson- 15%
John Kitzhaber- 15%
Evan Bayh- 7%
Dennis Kucinich- 4%
Al Sharpton- 1%

MICHIGAN
Republicans
Mitt Romney- 35%
John McCain- 20%
Sam Brownback- 16%
Rick Santorum- 12%
Rudy Giuliani- 9%
Morry Taylor- 6%
Lincoln Chafee- 2%


Democrats
Hillary Clinton- 34%
John Edwards- 29%
Evan Bayh- 14%
Al Sharpton- 8%
Bill Richardson- 7%
John Kitzhaber- 6%
Dennis Kucinich- 2%


SOUTH CAROLINA
Republicans
John McCain- 26%
Mitt Romney- 22%
Rick Santorum- 21%
Sam Brownback- 17%
Rudy Giuliani- 12%
Morry Taylor- 1%
Lincoln Chafee- 1%

Democrats
John Edwards- 36%
Hillary Clinton- 29%
Evan Bayh- 13%
Al Sharpton- 11%
Bill Richardson- 7%
John Kitzhaber- 3%
Dennis Kucinich- 1%


NEVADA
Republicans
Mitt Romney- 35%
John McCain- 27%
Rudy Giuliani- 13%
Sam Brownback- 12%
Rick Santorum- 8%
Lincoln Chafee- 3%
Morry Taylor- 2%


Democrats
Hillary Clinton- 35%
Bill Richardson- 23%
John Edwards- 20%
John Kitzhaber- 9%
Evan Bayh- 9%
Dennis Kucinich- 2%
Al Sharpton- 2%

[VPH]

Kitzhaber Marches in Los Angeles LGBT Pride Parade
June 11th, 2007

In a trailblazing act, former Oregon Governor and Democratic Candidate John Kitzhaber marched in Los Angeles' LGBT Pride parade. Given the opportunity to speak, he came out in favor of gay marriage, a contentious issue.

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Dennis Kucinich and Al Sharpton join Governor Kitzhaber in support of gay marriage, but they have not gone so far as to march with gay activists. Bill Richardson supports a slate of nondiscrimination initiatives and federally allowed domestic partnerships. Hillary Clinton and John Edwards, while not backing gay marriage, have stated that they believe civil unions should be allowed on a state level. While the LGBT population is not particularly large or politically organized, it will be interesting to see this debate play out over the course of the campaign.

In the Republican field, no candidate has endorsed full gay marriage, although Lincoln Chafee has voiced support for civil unions and Morry Taylor recently stated: "I don't care about the social wedges", which leaves him ambiguous on the topic.

[VPH]

Edwards HQ


As the campaign team meets to discuss strategy, one big question looms. Will team Edwards be able to catch up to Hillary Clinton, who leads big in the early states?

Edwards: Did y'all see these newest polls? Looks like we lost ground in New Hampshire but gained some in Iowa. I like our odds in South Carolina and Michigan too, but how much will those numbers take a hit if we can't win the first two?

Bonior: We need to zero in on the first two. Forget Nevada unless Richardson drops like a fly. We just don't have the numbers we need there, and for travel purposes it's easier not to make it our focus. South Carolina has to be a big win, same with Michigan. It would be extra special to me if we could win Michigan.

Trippi: Well, our message plays best in Michigan out of these early states. Look at Flint and Detroit-there is no better backdrop for the two Americas message.

Varoga: We need to do well enough early on to have that momentum though. We should open a few more offices in Iowa and New Hampshire. We currently have an office in Des Moines, Cedar Rapids, Davenport, and Council Bluffs. In New Hampshire, we have offices in Concord, Manchester, Portsmouth, and Nashua.

Edwards: That won't be enough to win...

Varoga: We clearly need to put some more effort into the first two states. I think we should open more offices in Iowa and New Hampshire. Translating our support into organization is crucial, and if we can activate our base, we can win this.

Axelrod: Ad season hasn't really started yet, but we can work on putting together stronger progressive outreach. I think we should invest in a social network of sorts to connect volunteers and fans of our campaign.

Teachout: I like the idea of a social network. Our email list is growing pretty fast, and we're getting good volunteer sign ups. We need something to link people together.

Devine: The funds are coming together alright, but we're nowhere near the Hillary juggernaut, and Evan Bayh is raking in money like nobody's business.

Teachout: I think we will have the online advantage so let's make the most of it.

[VPH]

Chafee flip flopped? In our timeline, he supported gay marriage on a federal level by the mid 2000s. As it is, even in 2008, at least 35% of Republicans supported gay marriage, and another ten or fifteen percent probably supported it at a state level.

Irl in 2006 he described it as an issue best left to states, even though you're right that in 2004 he showed some support. In the TL though, Chafee's reasoning is that he can't drift too far left. He's polling so low that he needs to make headway among GOP primary voters.

[VPH]

State of the Race-Democrats


As the presidential race continues on both sides, candidates are in the process of building bases and convincing voters, especially in early states. The Democratic message appears to center around Iraq, healthcare reform, and tax policy. Social issues have come up here and there, but Democrats seem eager to avoid making this election a referendum on the GOP's "culture war" issues. While the economy is relatively steady, decreasing home prices are worrisome to some advisers. If the economy writ large declines, we may see the messaging of this race shift.

Top Tier

Hillary Clinton
Fundraising: A
Organization: A-
Name Recognition: A+

Hillary Clinton is the candidate to beat on the Democratic side. Her formidable campaign appears to be maintaining its early momentum. With the highest name recognition of any candidate by far and a talented staff, Clinton has been able to build a strong fundraising machine. With a generally broad coalition, her chances right now appear good. However, this early on, it is to be expected that the most well known candidate will be ahead. Her campaign's headstrong nature will soon be put to the test at the first debate.

Assets: Well connected and known, good money, particularly strong on healthcare
Vulnerabilities: Lack of apology for Iraq War vote, may be outflanked by center (Bayh) and left (Edwards et. al), rumors of internal disagreement

John Edwards
Fundraising: A-
Organization: A
Name Recognition: B+

While Edwards is not a household name yet, he is decently well known thanks to his 2004 race, and the early states know him well. Trying to meld a coalition of downscale Whites, progressives, and Black voters will prove challenging, but thus far, Edwards is not too bad for wear with his "two Americas" message. He controls an immense amount of grassroots support and is putting innovative fundraising tools to the test. While Edwards could fall early, he also possesses a talented team and incredible upside. Big name donors have not come around as much as with Hillary Clinton, but if Edwards can cement himself as the top-tier candidate against Iraq, he should be able to marshal more support.

Assets: Charismatic and armed with a strong message, most to gain if economy slows
Vulnerabilities: Coalition will be difficult to build, lacks a very detailed agenda

Dark Horses

Bill Richardson
Fundraising: C+
Organization: A-
Name Recognition: B+

As expected, Bill Richardson is running mostly on his experience, both domestic and foreign. He delves adeptly into issues like education and immigration, and brings a refreshing antiwar perspective to the table. His support in Iowa and New Hampshire is concerning, but time remains for him to put together a strong appeal to voters. Nevada could be an opportunity, and it displays his high polling numbers among Hispanic voters. With Bob Shrum and Peter Fenn leading his campaign, it's clear that Richardson is serious about becoming a frontrunner. His small donor numbers are decent, but Richardson has yet to score many high-level endorsements or donations.

Assets: Strong organization, very experienced
Vulnerabilities: Other progressives could take votes from him, gun stance may prove unpopular, a little awkward

Evan Bayh
Fundraising: A-
Organization: C+
Name Recognition: C+

Evan Bayh has been raking in money, especially from well connected centrists. The question remains though, can he put it to use and convince Democratic voters that his centrist stances are best for the country? His controversial stances on Iraq, abortion, and guns could prove unpopular with Democratic base voters. Additionally, in recent months his campaign has struggled to find the footing to respond to attacks. Bayh would need to do decently in the first few states to perhaps squeeze Hillary from the center.

Assets: Lots of money, good media team, polling well in Michigan
Vulnerabilities: Possibly too conservative for Democrats, unknown in some early states, not endorsed by many elected officials

Third Tier

John Kitzhaber
Fundraising: C-
Organization: B+
Name Recognition: C

With a campaign led by Gore 2000 and Kerry 2004 strategist Tad Devine, Kitzhaber appears to have some upside as an unabashedly left candidate. His recent tours on college campuses, progressive bastions, have endeared him to many young voters. His name recognition and fundraising, however, need some serious work. Kitzhaber is regarded even by some who know his name as an oddball. Supporting initiatives like nationally legal gay marriage, universal healthcare, and immediate withdrawal from Iraq, Kitzhaber is bold. In this political climate though, he could possibly latch onto anti-Bush anger.

Assets: Energetic, grassroots organizing is good, young voters like him
Vulnerabilities: Where is the money, begs the general election electability question


Also-Rans

Al Sharpton
Fundraising: D-
Organization: D
Name Recognition: C+

Al Sharpton has a specific niche-among Black voters. This may serve him well in South Carolina, and if 2004 is any hint, Sharpton may stay in for a while trying to rally for his issues. As he tries to prove his progressive chops among others, Sharpton faces an uphill battle. His campaign is underfunded and underorganized, but Sharpton's energy keeps him in the race.

Assets: Strong on the stump, high upside in South Carolina
Vulnerabilities: Seen as divisive and controversial, unorganized bid, lacks funds

Dennis Kucinich
Fundraising: D
Organization: D+
Name Recognition: C-

Another long-hauler in 2004, Kucinich represents the firebrand left. His protectionist stances and antiwar stances combine to easily make him the farthest left in the race. Kucinich, like Kitzhaber, has campaigned mostly in left-wing hubs. He would likely face tough odds in the general election, and his campaign staff looks to be young and inexperienced. Will he stick it out in 2008?

Assets: Strong speaker
Vulnerabilities: Leftist gadlfy, no money

[VPH]

State of the Race-Republicans


Republican candidate have converged on the early states, attempting to convince conservative voters of their experience and policy chops. Republican messaging has in large part played on immigration, terrorism, and hot button social issues. Economic issues have been discussed, especially in regard to tax policy, where most candidates support tax relief.

Top Tier

Mitt Romney
Fundraising: A+
Organization: A
Name Recognition: A

Mitt Romney begins this race as a frontrunner and the top dog on the Republican side. His campaign is running a talented organizing effort, and his fundraising numbers are particularly strong. Romney appears to be angling for the business wing of the party, touting his own credentials in government and the private sector. He was the first candidate to start running ads, and his name recognition is quite high. Romney is also one of the first Republicans to introduce a healthcare plan. However, between his Mormon faith and his formerly liberal social issue stances, Romney may hit a rougher patch.

Assets: Strong organization, lots of money, neighboring state advantage in NH
Vulnerabilities: Lacks Evangelical outreach, may be cast as a flip-flopper

John McCain
Fundraising: B+
Organization: A
Name Recognition: A+

Senator John McCain is hot on Mitt Romney's tail, leading him in South Carolina and not far behind in Iowa, where he sits in a close third. McCain has not yet put up the same advertising blitz that Romney has, having fundraised less than him. McCain's "Maverick Republican" image and record of heroism combine to make him a formidable candidate who stands apart from many of the other candidates. He has the potential to activate all-important independents in open primary states moving forward. McCain, however, may face tougher odds among conservatives, even as his military background lends him strength with them on foreign policy issues. McCain has already faced criticism from some conservative pundits and this is likely to grow.

Assets: Strong record on foreign policy, well-known, independent support is high, strong general election candidate
Vulnerabilities: Immigration may be a tough point, critical of George W. Bush, not as prolific of a fundraiser as he needs to be

Dark Horses

Rudy Giuliani
Fundraising: B+
Organization: B-
Name Recognition: A+

Rudy Giuliani probably would have ranked higher on this list earlier in the campaign season. While as a whole he's polling third, his footprint on the trail seems to have decreased in recent weeks. Giuliani has attempted to muscle himself into the race as a conservative on homeland security and immigration, but he's taken hits on his stances on abortion. Giuliani's biggest weakness is his personal life. Allegations of misconduct in the mayor's office regarding workers' compensation and other issues have dogged him so far. He still holds decent comeback potential though, with a decent fundraising base and stellar name recognition. It's just a matter of exploiting his tough talking demeanor.

Assets: Some of the top name recognition, numerous offices, potential to gain
Vulnerabilities: Socially too liberal, personal scandals, losing momentum

Sam Brownback
Fundraising: B
Organization: A-
Name Recognition: B-

Kansas Senator Sam Brownback leads in Iowa, the most important state to developing a foothold with evangelicals throughout the campaign. His campaign has climbed the polls in recent weeks, profiting from strong Evangelical and Catholic outreach. Brownback's campaign style has built him an impressive following among religious communities. Additionally, he enjoys a host of endorsements from state officials in Iowa's more religious pockets. His tax platform is one of the most conservatives, and the right loves him. However, can Brownback reach out to more moderate Republicans? Moving past Iowa, this will be crucial.

Assets: Growing support among religious right, strong in Iowa, strong on policy issues
Vulnerabilities: May not be able to bridge the party's divides, weaker outside of Iowa, not very charismatic, could split constituency with Santorum

Third Tier

Rick Santorum
Fundraising: C-
Organization: B+
Name Recognition: C

Rick Santorum, like Sam Brownback, badly wants the religious right's support. However, some of his policies don't fit the traditional conservative orthodoxy. His mild protectionism and support for a higher minimum wage set him apart from many others, but give him a unique point upon which he can build support from downtrodden independents. Santorum is campaigning fulltime after losing his 2006 senate election. However, this loss calls into question his ability to win challenging campaigns. Fundraising has, predictably, not been great for Rick Santorum, but his grassroots support has been pretty good, following his folksly demeanor well. Santorum has upside, but it can only be realized if Brownback slips somewhat.

Assets: Strong grassroots, stands out from other candidates, good on the stump
Vulnerabilities: Splits constituency with Brownback, sinking in polls lately, lack endorsements

Morry Taylor
Fundraising: A
Organization: C
Name Recognition: C+

Morry Taylor's campaign is the true wild card of the bunch, possessing both disappointment potential and upset potential. While his polling numbers are very low, blue collar Michigan excepted, Taylor has loads of his own money to invest in a bid. Additionally, he has built more name recognition than in his ill-fated 1996 run through a combination listening/rally tour before even announcing his bid. Taylor's straightforward, angry speeches are drawing impressive crowds so far, even if his platform is vague and out of place in the GOP primary. Protectionist, nationalistic, and populist, it evokes Ross Perot more than Ronald Reagan. Taylor's path forward is tenuous, but there does a exist a path forward, simply on account of his fundraising.

Assets: Built up name recognition through here quickly, outsider status, money, emotional
Vulnerabilities: Unproven on the trail, undisciplined, lacks political prowess, doesn't play great to social conservatives. vague platform

Also-Rans

Lincoln Chafee
Fundraising: D
Organization: C-
Name Recognition: D-

Chafee's antiwar campaign has fallen startlingly flat. Observers expected there to be some conservative antiwar rumblings-enough perhaps to propel a serious candidacy. While Chafee checks the policy boxes for a libertarian-leaning run, he also looks too much like a liberal on issues like the environment and immigration. Chafee seems to lack the energy or organization it takes to run a presidential campaign. His fundraising isn't awful, getting some support from antiwar larger donors. A late Ron Paul or Walter Jones entry into the race may come if Chafee doesn't consolidate support with disaffected GOPers.

Assets: Could tread centrist ground and attract antiwar voters
Vulnerabilities: No charisma, lacking organization

[VPH]

Hillary Clinton Reveals Healthcare Reform Plan
June 25th, 2007, Des Moines, Iowa


Hillary Clinton today became the first Democratic candidate to reveal a full-scale healthcare reform agenda, known as the American Health Choices Plan. Her plan expands the Medicaid program to help more Americans, mandates employer coverage for their workers, improves required coverage of plans, and provides tax credits to enhance affordability. Clinton's 1990s push alongside her husband for healthcare reform failed due to Congressional opposition, but Clinton is hoping that with a likely Democratic Congress, she can pass her reforms this time. Clinton, in her address today, touted the plan as universal, allowing her to boost credibility with the more progressive wing of the party, which until now has gravitated more towards other candidates.

Other candidates have discussed healthcare and outlined principles for a plan. Senator John Edwards noted that universality is crucial. John Kitzhaber, Al Sharpton, and Dennis Kucinich have both emphasized the need for single-payer, government administered healthcare, although neither has of yet released a detailed plan. Evan Bayh discussed affordability in a June 2nd speech in Dover, New Hampshire, proposing simplifying the research process' bureaucracy and allowing the government to directly negotiate drug prices. Price negotiation is also addressed in Clinton's plan.

The only other candidate to introduce a detailed plan this early has been Mitt Romney, the Republican frontrunner. His plan provides tax deductions for the purchase of healthcare to increase portability and consumer choice. Romney also emphasizes the use of high-risk pools to lower costs. Other candidates have discussed similar reforms, but none has gone as far as Romney in regard to details. Sam Brownback voiced support for a similar tax deduction system and an expansion of private health savings plans. Santorum broadly called for more competition, as has John McCain. Morry Taylor criticized Romney's plan for "not going far enough" to lower costs and ensure competition in the healthcare market.

[VPH]

Rudy Giuliani Faces Allegations of Corruption
June 27th, 2007
New York City, NY

Multiple sources have come forth with information concerning an alleged affair between Rudy Giuliani and Judith Nathan. According to documents obtained by the Times, Giuliani billed charges to various city agencies in an attempt to cover his trip expenses in visiting Nathan. These expenses, according to audit, had nothing to do with city operations. When reached for comment, this is what former Mayor Giuliani said:

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Some campaign experts have noted that this will further damage Giuliani. "His fundraising base may shrivel up, and whatever goodwill he built up with Evangelicals might not sustain this blow. It's tough to see a way forward if this story grows", said Jason Yules, a political science professor at NYU. Most other GOP candidates declined to comment, but Morry Taylor immediately released a public statement calling Giuliani "unfit for office" and "morally corrupted". Rick Santorum noted in a quip to reporters that trust was an "important characteristic for primary voters to consider in any candidate", and John McCain told the Des Moines Register that he is the "candidate America can count on-no backroom deals or fishy spending".

Mitt Romney Scores Big Endorsements
June 29th, 2007
Concord, New Hampshire

Today, Mitt Romney announced three high profile endorsements: those of South Carolina Senator Jim DeMint, Utah Senator Orrin Hatch, and New Hampshire Senator Judd Gregg. These endorsements boost Romney's credibility with GOP conservatives and most certainly reinforce his standing in New Hampshire. Gregg and Romney met a few weeks ago and spoke for 2 hours. Both men reported that the meeting had been both amicable and productive.


Evan Bayh Talks Affordable College
July 2nd, 2007
Ann Arbor, Michigan

Evan Bayh unveiled an ingenious plan to lower college costs today-by providing a $6,000 refundable tax credit for the first $6,000 of college expenses for families making less than $100,000 a year. College affordability has not been a major issue of focus in this campaign, and this is a sign that Bayh, sensing slippage in the polls, is trying to regain his footing. Coverage and reactions to the plan were largely positive, so this may prove a boon for Bayh.

[VPH]

Happy Independence Day!

As candidates in the field take to the street for parades in the early primary states, John Edwards takes to the stage at a 4th of July concert in Cedar Rapids, Iowa. In front of a crowd of 5,000 at the US Cellular Center, Edwards dove into an impassioned speech contrasting the America that prospers and the America that struggles. Through this moment in the campaign had emphasized this message, but pundits noted that the Cedar Rapids speech was a game-changer in that it articulated Edwards' vision for America far better than any other speech had. With numerous memorable lines and an impassioned story of Edwards' father's struggles in the mills, it was a rousing hit of a speech, tying policy to vision. Edwards explained the need for accessible healthcare, an end to the Iraq War, fair tax reform, and the fight against poverty. Immediately after the speech, which was livestreamed on Edwards' website (at the suggestion of Online Director Zephyr Teachout), small donations to the campaign skyrocketed. While at first, Teachout, Axelrod, and Devine worried that the speech's timing on the 4th of July would minimize its media impact, over the next few days, networks across the political spectrum, national and local, made a big deal of the speech. Hillary Clinton's joint appearance with Bill Clinton at Davenport, Iowa's parade was largely overshadowed, even in local media. Al Sharpton's fierce Montgomery, Alabama speech on patriotism went unnoticed by large media outlets too. Edwards clearly won the day. Will this be his turning point in Iowa?

Simultaneously, at a parade in Nashua, New Hampshire, John McCain was confronted by an angry heckler ranting about his stance on immigration and support for current reform efforts. With cameras rolling, McCain gave a passionate defense of his record.

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McCain's off the cuff comment became another brick in the maverick tower McCain purports to stand on. As the media covered this moment, McCain's numbers among self-professed moderates and independents, crucial to New Hampshire, began to rise. McCain's top strategists debated the merits of the moment, with some noting that the effect in New Hampshire could trade off with needed support in Iowa and South Carolina. Whatever happens, Romney's 4th of July was comparatively uneventful, which for McCain looks like a positive.

[VPH]

BREAKING: Immigration Reform Fails in Senate
July 11th, 2007


On a vote of 46-53, the Comprehensive Immigration Reform Act of 2007 has been voted down by the Senate. While measures were taken to extend debate earlier on, the measure did not garner enough Republican support to pass. This failure may provide Democratic candidates with an extra sense of urgency to win and pass reform, but it may also embolden Republican voices with different plans.

Most Democrats in the race have proposed immigration plans. Richardson's is easily the most liberal, providing a speedy process to legality for undocumented immigrants, including a path to a citizenship. Other candidates, like Hillary Clinton and John Edwards, have discussed implementing a similar process, with some timing differences. Additionally, most Democrats support enhancing border security and modifying the visa process. Evan Bayh's plan, more conservative in nature, includes additional restrictions to prevent visa overstays and more funding for border security than other Democratic plans propose. Not all candidates, however, have released much of a plan. John Kitzhaber announced his support for a path to citizenship and decried human rights abuses in Latin America, but he has not cobbled together a full plan. Kucnich and Sharpton have both discussed the issue, but not in depth.

GOP plans have been far tougher on immigration than Democratic ones. A few of the plans, such as John McCain's, Sam Brownback's, and Lincoln Chafee's, include a clear path to citizenship. Other candidates either have muddled stances or have come out against what they call "amnesty". All Republicans have discussed enhancing funding for border security and enforcing the nation's current laws, although Rick Santorum, Morry Taylor, and Rudy Giuliani go further to call for English as the official language, and Taylor, Santorum, and Romney indicate support for anti-sanctuary city policies.