VPH
vivaportugalhabs
YaBB God
Posts: 4,718
Political Matrix E: -4.13, S: -0.17
|
|
« on: September 11, 2016, 02:50:40 PM » |
|
As a Portuguese-American, I can vouch for the fact that we vote generally Democratic.
The three cities used to analyze the population here are bastions of the blue collar Portuguese-American population. The populations there tend to be less educated, deeply religious, and lower-income. Basically almost a New Deal coalition group.
New Bedford and Fall River were Hillary's strongest towns in Bristol County, while Taunton voted for her too.
New Bedford 2008: 70-27 Hillary 2016: 54-44 Hillary
Fall River 2008: 77-19 Hillary 2016: 55-41 Hillary
Taunton 2008: 71-25 Hillary 2016: 50-48 Hillary
Curiously, Fall River and New Bedford were two of Santorum's strongest towns in Bristol County. New Bedford was Trump's 2nd strongest town in Bristol. Bristol's total Republican vote went from ~25,000 to ~47,000. (88% increase) Statewide GOP turnout went from 370,000 to 623,000. (68% increase)
On a town level:
New Bedford 1880-3733: 99% increase
Fall River 2063-3613: 75% increase
Taunton 2271-4113: 81% increase
I believe that there will be a decent swing to Trump this cycle in Portuguese-majority blue collar communities, consistent with the general White ethnic trend. However, because there is a semi-Hispanic culture (noted by another poster), the swing may be smaller than among Italian-Americans and other ethnics.
Now, in California, where Portuguese communities tend to be more established, they are more conservative. See: David Valadao, Devin Nunes.
|