Who's going to qualify for the Democratic debates? (user search)
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  Who's going to qualify for the Democratic debates? (search mode)
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Poll
Question: How many?
#1
20+		  
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19		  
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#5
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#6
15		  
#7
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#10
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#11
10 or fewer		  
Show Pie Chart
Partisan results
Total Voters: 160

Author Topic: Who's going to qualify for the Democratic debates?  (Read 77483 times)
The Other Castro
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« Reply #100 on: October 25, 2019, 11:11:49 AM »
« edited: October 25, 2019, 02:04:08 PM by The Other Castro »
December chart, being liberal with the "Hopeful" category right now since it's early:
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #101 on: October 29, 2019, 12:17:55 PM »
Updated December chart, big changes:




For November:
Gabbard: 2/4 total polls, or 1/2 state polls
O'Rourke: 2/4 total polls
Castro: 0/4 total polls
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #102 on: October 30, 2019, 02:44:30 PM »
Wow, quite the developments. There's some other polls coming soon I think, I'll post an updated December chart after.
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #103 on: November 03, 2019, 10:17:23 AM »
Updated December chart:
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #104 on: November 04, 2019, 10:54:52 AM »
Quote from: jeb_arlo on November 04, 2019, 10:24:36 AM
Why is Booker in the Hopeful Zone while Castro is in the Dead Zone?

Booker has hit 3% with some frequency in the past, making 4% not impossible. Castro, on the other hand, has no chance of meeting the polling requirements. Booker is the worst of the hopefuls, and Castro is the best of the dead.
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #105 on: November 06, 2019, 04:23:55 PM »
Thinking it over, Booker is too weak to call hopeful, and Castro is strong to call dead, so making a small adjustment here:
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #106 on: November 11, 2019, 03:39:08 PM »
Hillary Clinton is the best thing that ever happened to Tulsi Gabbard's campaign.
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #107 on: November 14, 2019, 06:06:41 PM »
Yeah, there's no conspiracy against Yang here. They don't use RCP for podium orders, only qualifying polls. Klobuchar is ahead of Yang in the qualifying polls.
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #108 on: November 20, 2019, 07:51:43 PM »
Quote from: Cleveland Rocks on November 20, 2019, 07:34:47 PM
Now that Messem's gone and Steyer, Yang, and Gabbard are closer to making it, can you post an updated chart?

(Also, are Booker and Castro still too strong for the dead zone?)

They can both realistically make at least the donor threshold, so I'm just going to keep them both in the doomed zone. They've earned that distinction from the dead zone people.
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #109 on: December 01, 2019, 12:44:40 AM »
Womp womp.
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #110 on: December 02, 2019, 12:47:50 PM »
Updated December chart:
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #111 on: December 10, 2019, 03:22:18 PM »
Wow, quite the last minute get for Yang.
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #112 on: December 12, 2019, 11:21:16 AM »
The DNC announced the dates/partners for the first four debates in 2020:

January 14:
CNN/DMR
Drake University in Des Moines, Iowa

February 7:
ABC/WMUR/Apple News
St. Anselm College in Manchester, New Hampshire

February 19:
NBC/MSNBC/The Nevada Independent
Las Vegas, Nevada

February 25:
CBS/Congressional Black Caucus Institute/Twitter
The Gaillard Center in Charleston, South Carolina
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #113 on: December 20, 2019, 02:32:54 PM »
January debate chart:
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #114 on: December 30, 2019, 02:10:26 PM »
"Give us a poll!"

DNC commissions a poll, shows Yang and Gabbard at 2%

"RIGGED!"
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #115 on: January 05, 2020, 12:27:42 PM »
Updated January debate chart:
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #116 on: January 05, 2020, 12:48:21 PM »
Quote from: Tender Branson on January 05, 2020, 12:46:19 PM

Shouldn't Bloomberg be listed as "dead", considering he accepts and releases no donor #s ?

There's a very small chance that he can get the required number of "donors" from merchandise sales.
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #117 on: January 05, 2020, 12:51:56 PM »
Quote from: Tender Branson on January 05, 2020, 12:49:12 PM
Quote from: The Other Castro on January 05, 2020, 12:48:21 PM
Quote from: Tender Branson on January 05, 2020, 12:46:19 PM

Shouldn't Bloomberg be listed as "dead", considering he accepts and releases no donor #s ?

There's a very small chance that he can get the required number of "donors" from merchandise sales.

That's a very big "if" ...

Plus, his campaign has not released any such "donor" number so far.

Yeah I mean it's not likely to happen, but I'm saving "dead" for people with absolutely no chance whatsoever.
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #118 on: January 09, 2020, 06:51:03 PM »
Wowwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #119 on: January 17, 2020, 11:18:27 PM »
NH Debate Chart:



Delegate estimates are from 538.
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #120 on: January 26, 2020, 11:38:59 AM »
Updated February NH Debate Chart:
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #121 on: January 31, 2020, 04:31:39 PM »
Updated February NH debate chart:





February NV debate chart:
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #122 on: February 04, 2020, 08:10:16 PM »
Quote from: Mr. Morden on February 04, 2020, 05:37:43 PM
So I guess Buttigieg is definitely going to get some delegates out of Iowa to qualify for the Nevada debate, but looks like Klobuchar is still a question mark?  Does it look like her SDE # is currently above 15%, or close to it, in any of Iowa's congressional districts?


Klobuchar is currently above 15% of SDEs in the fourth district. If that holds, she'll win one delegate.
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #123 on: February 09, 2020, 06:23:55 PM »
Updated February NV debate:
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #124 on: February 15, 2020, 04:49:54 PM »
February SC debate chart:
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