AL-Change Research: Moore +6 (final poll)

[The Other Castro]

Roy Moore - 51%
Doug Jones - 45%

1 point gain for Jones since the previous poll.

https://medium.com/@ChngRsrch/moore-holds-six-point-lead-on-election-eve-51c1f6502a4b

[The Other Castro]

Yeah, this race is over. Sorry, Fox, but Moore will (most likely) win.

I just don’t understand how anyone can be this confident of any result here.

[The Other Castro]

Yeah, this race is over. Sorry, Fox, but Moore will (most likely) win.

I just don’t understand how anyone can be this confident of any result here.

In similar races, like MA '10 and MO '12, all of the late polls showed Brown/McCaskill ahead. Here we're seeing a mixed bag at best for Jones. I stand by my earlier statement that Jones has about a 30% chance of victory, but obviously I'm going to go with the 70% chance Moore has from a prognostication standpoint.

30% ≠ Over. 30% chance is pretty significant, and 70% is very far from a sure thing.

[The Other Castro]

Was this landline-only too?

It says it was conducted online.

[The Other Castro]

The more known pollsters seem to be showing Jones ahead. I think it's wiser to trust more reliable pollsters.

Which ones? Only fox is showing jones ahead

Are you saying fox should be trusted over the 7 other recent polls? That seems a bit hopeful

Traditional, live-caller, reputable pollsters: WashPost (J+3), FOX (J+10), Monmouth (Tie).