AL-Gravis/Big League: DOUG +5

[The Other Castro]

Doug Jones - 47%
Roy Moore - 42%
Undecided - 11%

7 point swing towards Jones from their previous poll.

Moore favorability: 42-49 (-5)
Jones favorability: 45-41 (+4)
Trump job approval: 53-43 (+10)

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https://bigleaguepolitics.com/big-league-gravis-alabama-poll-jones-takes-47-42-lead-moore/


(((Harry Enten)))‏ @ForecasterEnten 5 minutes ago
We now have two pollsters who went into the field immediately following the Moore allegations and then again ~5-7 days after it. Both show that Moore has dropped even further than after an initial drop.

https://twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/status/931606765833244672

[The Other Castro]

To be fair to Gravis, their Virginia polls were not too bad. Spot on in 2016 and undershot Northam by almost 4 points, although that was still more accurate than most polls in the closing days.

Although I guess the broken clock is even right twice a day thing still applies here.

I think I had seen something about them changing their methodology, though don't quote me on that. Their NJ polls were also very close to the end result.

[The Other Castro]

This poll is actually more useful than just a standard post-scandal poll, because this is Gravis' 2nd post-scandal poll. The immediate reaction showed M+2, while this solidified reaction shows J+5, which supports the Akin theory that the lowest point for Moore isn't in the immediate aftermath, but over a longer period of time as the scandal develops.