$1.5 Trillion GOP Tax Cut Thread

[The Other Castro]

People to watch:

-Johnson
-Collins
-McCain
-Murkowski

[The Other Castro]

Castro and dwarves, what percent change does the house have votes for tomorrow?

Looks like there will be at least 15 no's

It should be fine in the House, the Senate will be trouble.

[The Other Castro]

Matt Fuller, who seems like a good whip counter, thinks there are probably 14-16 No votes. He rates 10 as No, 4 as Lean No, and 2 as Undecided (and a bunch more as Lean Yes).

[The Other Castro]

Daines is a no.

Do you have a source for this?

FOX Business.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-11-27/senate-plans-tax-vote-amid-trump-sales-pitch-tax-debate-update

Also:

Sahil Kapur @sahilkapur
Sen. James Lankford says he's concerned the tax cuts won't yield the promised growth and wants a "backstop" built in if revenues plunge.

Very interesting: Lankford floats a trigger in which tax rates could rise if revenues crash. He declines to say if he'd support bill as written, describing it as "in flux."

Biggest hurdle for tax bill now is a few Senate GOP deficit hawks—Corker, Flake, Lankford. If they're placated it probably becomes unstoppable.

TOOMEY says on @BloombergTV he opposes Lankford's debt shield trigger, saying it "could have a self-fulfilling effect."

https://twitter.com/sahilkapur/status/935239072213237761

[The Other Castro]

Scott Bauer‏ @sbauerAP
@SenRonJohnson says he's still a no on the Republican tax bill, and will vote against it in committee tomorrow, but he remains optimistic that fixes will be made to get him to support it

Seung Min Kim‏ @seungminkim
Seung Min Kim Retweeted Scott Bauer
This would tank the bill in committee, since GOP only has one-seat majority on Budget.

https://twitter.com/seungminkim/status/935257855304830976

[The Other Castro]

Collins sounds like a yes.

[The Other Castro]

Does this bill still have some big hoops to go through before becoming a reality? Yes
Does it have a much greater chance of passage than healthcare reform ever had? Yes

Right now, I think we're looking at some kind of tax bill becoming law. Maybe not the draft currently up for debate, but something.

[The Other Castro]

How exactly can one keep an "open mind" about something you'd rather drink weed killer than do?

He can hold his opinions on something until it becomes a problem for Senate leadership affecting passage, after which he will suck it up and find some justification for it.

[The Other Castro]

Murkowski’s office says she will vote Yes.

https://mobile.twitter.com/bencjacobs/status/935954365113864192

McCain says “Stay tuned”.

https://mobile.twitter.com/seungminkim/status/935959434681085952

Collins is a Yes on the MTP, but still concerned over individual mandate.

https://mobile.twitter.com/mmurraypolitics/status/935955798395670528

[The Other Castro]

Flake and Johnson will both vote Yes on the MTP.

https://mobile.twitter.com/ryangrim/status/935967633203236864
https://www.axios.com/sen-ron-johnson-to-vote-yes-on-procedural-tax-vote-2513585275.html

[The Other Castro]

Per C-SPAN 2, Motion to Proceed will be voted on this Evening. Not sure of exact timing.

This will almost certainly pass, barring any major surprises.

[The Other Castro]

Castro, gass, dwarven, yank, etc...... would you say the odds of this thing passing are above 50%?

Currently, yes.

[The Other Castro]

Democrats shouldn't be surprised by how easily some Republicans like Collins, Murkowski, and McCain have come on board after everything that happened with Trumpcare. There are some issues that will create some overlap in the interests and decisions of them and Democrats, but do not be mistaken. They are not Democrats. They will not do the things that Democrats want just because they did that thing that time that you agreed with. They are Republicans, and their interests are more closely aligned with those of the Republican Party.

[The Other Castro]

Yeah it's kind of hard to see this not pass at this point. Once it gets to conference, it's pretty likely that some kind of compromise comes out, given what Republican members of the House and Senate have already settled for. Ultimate tax bill passage is probably happening.

[The Other Castro]

The only question right now seems to be whether this passes with 52 or 51 votes, with or without Corker.

[The Other Castro]

So, a 51-49 vote ready to pass before the bill that they're voting on has even been decided. I'm going to go ahead and say this is not regular order.

[The Other Castro]

Well, I offer my deepest condolences to the families of the 13 million americans who will die from the passage from this terrible act. And I offer my deepest condolences to the Treasury department, who will be forced to borrow at least $1,006,700,000,000.00 to finance this legislation. Congrats Greedo/DFW/whoever else supported this sick sham.

That’s not how that works.

[The Other Castro]

Castro, dragon, yank, gass......what are the chances this thing fails in conference committee

It's pretty unlikely that they fail to work something out.