Alabama Megathread: Bombshell allegations

[The Other Castro]

White House officials and McConnell allies are "deeply worried" about Moore winning. They have private polling showing a tightened race, but with Moore still consistently leading.

http://www.politico.com/story/2017/09/24/alabama-strange-moore-senate-republicans-243072

[The Other Castro]

Some useful benchmarks for tomorrow:

Ryan Struyk @ryanstruyk
Targets for Strange win in #ALSen

Jefferson 60.3%
Mobile 49.9%
Madison 44.1%
Montgomery 48.1%
Shelby 56.1%
Tuscaloosa 53.6%
Baldwin 49.1%

Targets for Moore win in #ALSen

Jefferson 39.4%
Mobile 47.3%
Madison 30.1%
Montgomery 44.8%
Shelby 40.9%
Tuscaloosa 51.6%
Baldwin 40.4%

https://mobile.twitter.com/ryanstruyk/status/912347642620993536

[The Other Castro]

Hmm yeah that's Strange.

[The Other Castro]

RIP Strange's turnout operation, now that repeal/replace is dead.

[The Other Castro]

Moore is going to get the full support of the Republican Party unless he literally murders someone, in which case he'll only get most of the support.

[The Other Castro]

Also, useful spreadsheet that I found with the results of the 2017 AL Sen Primary, 2016 GOP primary, 2012 Supreme Court race, and 2012 GOP primary.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1h_xnmoOD3ol8cQQSEAGernrjvOGRw8wI1w5YJYYjinU/htmlview#

[The Other Castro]

Wait this is tonight? I could have sworn it was in December.

The general election is.

Also: Trump told conservatives he expects Strange to lose.

http://www.politico.com/story/2017/09/26/alabama-senate-trump-strange-moore-243171

[The Other Castro]

Wow, looking like a landslide folks.



(Credit to Miles)

[The Other Castro]

What counties should I look for

Check the other thread.

[The Other Castro]

Strange takes the lead! (Due to Mobile)

[The Other Castro]

A Strange internal poll found that McConnell's favorability was just 10% among AL Republicans.

https://twitter.com/arogdc/status/913119533094903810

[The Other Castro]

Well that was nice while it lasted.

Pretty misleading headline, he didn't say that there should be no restrictions.

[The Other Castro]

Some potentially good news for Jones:

Brian Lyman‏ @lyman_brian
This is interesting. Kay Ivey just scheduled a special election for Quinton Ross' former Montgomery Senate seat -- on Dec. 12.  #ALSEN

And that's a safely Democratic seat. Most likely a cost-saving measure, but you'll probably see more votes than usual in that race ...

... which will be a help to Doug Jones in an area he needs to win big to have a shot in #ALSEN.

https://twitter.com/lyman_brian/status/914918526758080513

[The Other Castro]

Bill Kristol endorses Doug Jones.

https://twitter.com/billkristol/status/920763879390679040

[The Other Castro]

Can we at least make the title punnier?

Getting tricksy in the Heart of Dixie?

[The Other Castro]

Moore is still likely to win, but it's important to realize that he represents Cruzism. Trumpism (Strange) couldn't even get through the primary.

Uh no. Moore was the Trump candidate, even if he didn't have the support of Trump himself. Trumpism is still alive and well in Republican primaries.

[The Other Castro]

TOSSUP

[The Other Castro]

TOSSUP

Probably right, but I seriously doubt Strange would do very well as a write-in candidate, and the potential impact this story will have on the outcome of the race is probably exaggerated.

also whats the dem base level in Alabama?

In a special election with an unpopular Republican president in the WH, I'd say 42%.

Strange running as a write-in would be great (though unlikely), even if he only gets like less than 10%. Jones doesn't need to get 50%, just the most votes, and he could hypothetically win with 45%.

[The Other Castro]

So, to clear up some things:

-Moore cannot be replaced on the ballot
-If Moore withdraws, votes for him will not count (2nd place winner will win)
-Strange can run as a write-in if he wants to (sore loser laws don't apply to write-ins)
-AL courts could potentially change these requirements, allows for replacements, etc.

http://excessofdemocracy.com/blog/2017/11/sorting-out-the-alabama-senate-election-possibilities-in-light-of-roy-moore

[The Other Castro]

Sounds like Strange is seriously considering jumping in:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.al.com/news/index.ssf/2017/11/luther_strange_disturbed_by_ro.html

Luther Strange‏ @lutherstrange
Thank you @SenShelby It's an honor to serve with you.

https://twitter.com/lutherstrange/status/928763593948057602

[The Other Castro]

Strange has no realistic chance of actually winning as a write-in, but his entry would make Democrats ecstatic.

[The Other Castro]

A new poll by DDHQ/Opinion Savvy will be out soon, conducted entirely last night.

[The Other Castro]

So, will Paul, McConnell, Cruz, and Cornyn also withdraw their endorsements?

[The Other Castro]

Alex Isenstadt‏ @politicoalex
LUTHER not interested in long-shot write-in bid, per 1 person w/direct knowledge of discussions

https://twitter.com/politicoalex/status/929127805547438080

[The Other Castro]

Do we know if the poll Enten alluded to is the JMC one due to come out tomorrow?

I would guess so.

John Couvillon‏ @WinWithJMC
ALABAMA SENATE POLL: Poll release time tomorrow 11AM Central #ALSEN
9:46 PM - 11 Nov 2017

Justin Godfrey‏ @justingodfrey4
Replying to @WinWithJMC
Is it going to be interesting?
9:47 PM - 11 Nov 2017

John Couvillon‏ @WinWithJMC
Replying to @justingodfrey4
9:48 PM - 11 Nov 2017

https://twitter.com/WinWithJMC/status/929541424080719872