CT Gov: Malloy OUT

[The Other Castro]

Toss-Up ---> Lean Dem.

[The Other Castro]

Would anyone from the Congressional delegation want to run for Governor? Jim Himes or Elizabeth Esty maybe?

Himes no, Esty was thought to be a maybe but it's actually her husband Dan that might be looking at a run. This could be a very crowded primary for both parties.

[The Other Castro]

Imagine two Democratic governors with Kennedy elected in 2018: Chris Kennedy in Illinois, and Ted Kennedy, Jr. in Connecticut.

I think it's Lean R. It is a prime Republican gubernatorial pickup. If Tom Foley runs again, it's his, but Kennedy Jr. or Drew will give him a competitive race.

Trust me when I say you don't know what you're talking about.

[The Other Castro]

It will be weird crossing the border into Connecticut in 2019 and seeing someone else's name on the road sign. I feel like Malloy has been there forever.

They still have Jodi Rell's name on the pamphlets at the DMV near me.

[The Other Castro]

A source of mine tells me Jepsen isn't keen on running and likes where he is now. Some people may not run if Wyman runs, but my gut tells me she won't run either. We already have Drew, and we're likely to get Kennedy and Lembo in as well. Wyman exiting would probably bring in Jonathan Harris. Not sure if Ganim will run, since he can't get matching funds under current rules due to his status as a convicted felon. I don't know enough about Looney to say for sure one way or the other. My money's on Lembo for now, but I'm interested to see the reaction to Kennedy's potential entrance.

[The Other Castro]

If Tom Foley runs again, it's his, but Kennedy Jr. or Drew will give him a competitive race.

Hate to burst your bubble, but after Foley coming up short in the previous two governor's races....he has "no chance in hell".  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9Uc3V8NxKWw

Give Foley a chance. It's time for a blue blood Republican back in CT to kick off the 2020s.

Lol go nominate Foley, see what happens. If the CT GOP nominated him again they would be worse than the FL Democratic Party.

[The Other Castro]

Democrats need more young candidates which is an argument in Drew's favor, but I don't know much about his politics or whether he's a good candidate. At least he's not tied to Malloy, or is he?

Drew's youth probably isn't going to be much of an advantage in the primaries.

[The Other Castro]

Jonathan Harris (D) is in, as expected with Malloy exiting. This also might be a sign that Wyman isn't running.

http://www.ctpost.com/local/article/Democrat-Jonathan-Harris-to-seek-statewide-office-11081684.php?cmpid=twitter-desktop

Rep. Elizabeth Esty (D) says she will not run for Governor.

http://www.courant.com/politics/capitol-watch/hc-elizabeth-esty-i-will-not-be-running-for-governor-20170418-story.html

Susan Bysiewicz (D) is also out, and is instead running for State Senate.

http://www.courant.com/politics/hc-middletown-susan-bysiewicz-0419-20170418-story.html

[The Other Castro]

Kevin Lembo (D), State Comptroller, is in: "Lembo opens an exploratory campaign for governor"

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https://ctmirror.org/2017/04/27/lembo-opens-an-exploratory-campaign-for-governor/

[The Other Castro]

Well then, Bridgeport Mayor Joe Ganim (D) has formed an exploratory committee. It is unclear whether he will be eligible for matching funds, since he is a convicted felon. Let's just say he's a longshot.

https://ctmirror.org/2017/04/28/joe-ganim-to-explore-the-limit-of-second-chances/


Also, I will note that some guys I know in the state party are somewhat pessimistic about this race. This is Lean D at best, and closer to Tossup. 

[The Other Castro]

Ted Kennedy, Jr., Nancy Wyman, Dan Drew, Kevin Lembo, Jonathan Harris, George Jepsen... This couldn't get much more "potentially" crowded. I wonder if Scott Slifka will run.

Jepsen probably isn't going to run, and at this point Wyman probably won't either.

Also, not that people thought he would run, but Rep. Jim Himes just ruled it out.

http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2017/may/2/jim-himes-connecticut-dem-rules-out-gubernatorial-/

[The Other Castro]

Trumbull First Selectman Tim Herbst (R) says he's not running for reelection, and basically says that he'll be announcing a run for Governor next month.

http://www.ctpost.com/local/article/Herbst-will-no-seek-re-election-as-first-selectman-11121121.php

We're probably going to end up with like six Democrats and six Republicans all running.

[The Other Castro]

As expected, AG George Jepsen is out: "Jepsen to skip ‘the misery’ of running for governor"

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https://ctmirror.org/2017/05/11/jepsen-to-skip-the-misery-of-running-for-governor/

[The Other Castro]

Himes is my Congressman, he's not losing.

[The Other Castro]

That's pretty surprising. Perhaps Wyman is running after all, or perhaps the race may be tougher for Democrats than it appears. I wouldn't underestimate the chance of a Malloy backlash.

[The Other Castro]

Is there potential for a key Independent candidacy here?

At the very most, a conservative could possibly enter as an Independent and play spoiler to the Republican by getting around 1%. Joe Visconti almost did that in 2014.

[The Other Castro]

Lt. Gov Nancy Wyman is out.

http://www.courant.com/politics/hc-pol-nancy-wyman-not-running-20171116-story.html

[The Other Castro]

I honestly think people are underestimating the likelihood of a Republican victory here. Democrats don’t really have a good, solid candidate, and we nutmeggers are very open to the right kind of Republican as governor.

[The Other Castro]

What do you guys think about Dan Drew?

Edit: Changed my wording because "y'all" is unbearably corny coming from someone like myself.

He made some people pretty upset in the state party by announcing a run before Malloy had officially declined to run.

[The Other Castro]

In a shocker, AG Jepsen is not running for reelection, nor is he running for Governor. The open race for AG may cause some of the Democrats and Republicans currently running for Governor to withdraw and run for AG instead (it led to the Senate for both Lieberman and Blumenthal).

https://ctmirror.org/2017/11/27/a-november-surprise-jepsen-wont-seek-a-third-term-as-ag/

[The Other Castro]

Ned Lamont???

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http://www.greenwichtime.com/local/article/Lamont-testing-the-waters-for-governor-12389525.php

[The Other Castro]

With AG opening up, Jonathan Harris (D) is looking to drop down.

http://www.dailyructions.com/harris-making-looking-at-ag-race/

Meanwhile:

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http://www.courant.com/news/connecticut/hc-news-joe-ganim-governors-race-financing-20171129-story.html

[The Other Castro]

Chris Mattei (D) is dropping out to run for AG. Democrats are quickly running low on candidates...

https://mobile.twitter.com/ChrisMatteiCT/status/937715393384161280

[The Other Castro]

"Hartford Mayor Luke Bronin Forms Exploratory Committee For Gubernatorial Run"

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http://www.courant.com/community/hartford/hc-he-news-bronin-governor-exploratory-committee-20171205-story.html

[The Other Castro]

Bridgeport Mayor (and convicted felon) Joe Ganim will announce his candidacy for Governor on January 3.

https://ctmirror.org/2017/12/28/no-really-joe-ganim-is-running-for-governor/