Trumpcare Megathread: It's dead (for now)

[The Other Castro]

What time is the vote expected today for the MTP. Then, when doe debates/speeches start? Then, when is the actual vote for this filth bill?

I think the MTP vote is at 2:15.

[The Other Castro]

This is apparently McConnell's plan:




And it got Paul on board for the MTP, because he just tweeted:

Senator Rand Paul‏ @RandPaul
This morning, @SenateMajLdr informed me that the plan for today is to take up the 2015 clean repeal bill as I've urged.

If that is the plan, I will vote to proceed to have this vote. I also now believe we will be able to defeat the new spending and bailouts

I've been told by leadership their bill would now need 60 votes to pass, votes they do not have. Therefore I believe it will fail.

If we cannot pass full, clean 2015 repeal, I've also been told we will vote on whatever version of CLEAN repeal we can pass.

Repealing mandates & taxes, without new spending and bailouts. This is the path I've been urging, and what I discussed with @realDonaldTrump

If this is indeed the plan, I will vote to proceed and I will vote for any all measures that are clean repeal.

https://twitter.com/LACaldwellDC/status/889849720104943616

[The Other Castro]

People to watch: Murkowski, Heller, Capito, Portman, Lee, Moran, Flake.

If Murkowski is indeed a NO as was rumored, this probably once again comes down to Heller.

[The Other Castro]

Graham says he would be a No on a skinny repeal plan (I assume Collins would be as well). Also, it doesn't really seem clear whether such a bill like that would even be allowed under the rules of reconciliation, because it would need to reduce the deficit.

[The Other Castro]

Collins and an unidentified male Senator were caught on a hot mic talking about Rep. Farenthold, the guy that made those comments about challenging female Republicans to a duel if they were men:

Male Senator: "You could beat the sh**t out of him."
Collins: "He's so unattractive, it's unbelievable."

Edit: The male Senator appears to have been Jack Reed.

[The Other Castro]

It doesn't look like they intend to actually sign a skinny repeal into law though. They just really need to pass something that they can bring to a conference with the House so that they have some kind of starting point to work out a joint bill.

[The Other Castro]

Collins reiterates that she is a NO on the MTP.

[The Other Castro]

It's an important step forward for McConnell if this MTP passes, which is appearing more likely now, but everyone should keep in context what that means. There are still several very difficult obstacles ahead, and a successful MTP vote just means one fewer obstacle.  

[The Other Castro]

Portman is a Yes on the MTP. Looks like this is getting through.

https://twitter.com/DispatchAlerts/status/889905459804741632

[The Other Castro]

Capito is a yes. I dont see how the MTP fails now.

Theoretically, two of Lee, Moran, Murkowski, or Johnson would kill it. Unlikely though.

[The Other Castro]

"Kill the bill, don't kill us" protests have broken out in the chamber.

[The Other Castro]

Lee voted Yes.

[The Other Castro]

Not yet voted: Flake, Inhofe, Johnson, McCain, Sullivan.

[The Other Castro]

Does anyone know why none of the dems have yet to actually vote no yet?

I think they're abstaining.

[The Other Castro]

McCain is assumed to be voting Yes, but Ron Johnson was supposedly undecided. We'll see.

[The Other Castro]

Ryan Rainey @ryan_rainey
Johnson just came through the subway, is walking up to vote right now

https://twitter.com/ryan_rainey/status/889920653809287170

[The Other Castro]

If Ron Johnson ends up killing this...

[The Other Castro]

And now they need to...you know...come up with a bill that they can actually get 50 votes on. A whole different game than just a motion to proceed.

[The Other Castro]

And now they need to...you know...come up with a bill that they can actually get 50 votes on. A whole different game than just a motion to proceed.

Wake up and stop being naive. This is going to pass.

I am fully aware of the consequences of this bill. Rather than call people naive and take a rather lazy approach to analysis in just saying it's going to pass, take the time to actually read up on what's been going on in this process, and you'd know that passage of a bill is going to be very difficult. Not impossible, but examine this every step individually.

[The Other Castro]

And now they need to...you know...come up with a bill that they can actually get 50 votes on. A whole different game than just a motion to proceed.

Wake up and stop being naive. This is going to pass.

I am fully aware of the consequences of this bill. Rather than call people naive and take a rather lazy approach to analysis in just saying it's going to pass, take the time to actually read up on what's been going on in this process, and you'd know that passage of a bill is going to be very difficult. Not impossible, but examine this every step individually.

Uh, obviously I've "taken the time" to research the process. I just have no faith that Republicans are actually going to let this slip away after 7 years of promising to repeal. They'll find a way to get 50 senators on board.

That's kind of what I mean when I say lazy. When people say it's going to pass just because. The positions that some senators have already put themselves in make getting 50 senators very difficult. If acknowledging that fact makes me naive, well then I don't have anything else to add.

[The Other Castro]

Up next:

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http://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/senate-vote-health-care/?lpup=23208508#livepress-update-23208508

[The Other Castro]

They are now voting on the BCRA as an amendment, though it needs 60 votes to pass due to parliamentary rulings, so the vote will fail.

Edit: Vote on motion to waive budget act for BCRA

[The Other Castro]

Actually the CSPAN header was a little confusing, I think this was actually a vote to waive the budget act requiring 60 votes on the BCRA. That vote also needed 60 votes, so it fails as well.

[The Other Castro]

To be clear, they are not voting on the BCRA right now. They are voting on a motion to waive the requirement that the BCRA needs 60 votes. The vote to waive such a requirement also requires 60 votes. This current vote has failed, meaning when they do vote on the BCRA, it will need 60 votes to pass.

GOP NOs on this motion: Collins, Corker, Cotton, Graham, Heller, Moran, Murkowski, Paul, Lee

[The Other Castro]

Senate stands adjourned until 9:30 AM tomorrow.