GA-6 Special election discussion thread

[The Other Castro]

Conor Sen‏ @conorsen
BREAKING: Ashford Park Elementary in DeKalb reports. Ossoff with 53.0% of 827 votes cast. Hillary got 45.6% here.

But there's also this:

Conor Sen‏ @conorsen  
 BREAKING: Ashford Dunwoody Rd in DeKalb reports. Ossoff with 47.9% of 1121 votes cast. Downtick from Hillary’s 51.8%

And this:
Conor Sen‏ @conorsen
More
 BREAKING: Silver Lake in DeKalb reports. Ossoff with 50.5% of 1284 ballots cast. Hillary at 51.5%.

Nate Cohn‏ @Nate_Cohn
Nate Cohn Retweeted Conor Sen
Including ev, it's Ossoff at 52.6--just ahead of Clinton, maybe a tick lower than hopes. But turnout is huge.

[The Other Castro]

Those Ossoff numbers are ED vote, while Hillary is total vote I believe, so he is still doing better.

[The Other Castro]

Remember, be careful comparing Ossoff's Election Day vote to Clinton's Total vote.

[The Other Castro]

Decision Desk HQ @DecisionDeskHQ
Numbers inbound for EARLY votes for Cobb, Ossoff 57% in early there

[The Other Castro]

That Cobb EV is ABOVE Ossoff's approximate EV benchmark of 53%.

[The Other Castro]

What was the early vote target for Cobb?

Total vote target was about 43%, so 53% for EV.

Also:

Nate Cohn‏ @Nate_Cohn
Ossoff at 57% in the Cobb County early vote. That's more impressive than the DeKalb tally. Ossoff on track for 2/3 of the EV

[The Other Castro]

What were the benchmarks of what Ossoff needs to win?

You can find them all here:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1T9gbq8BANoatjNTf68wPw9s_JXZYh2xRy9naqC5tWh8/htmlview?usp=sharing&sle=true#

[The Other Castro]

Ossoff at 60% Fulton EV. Again, right on track with EV benchmarks.

[The Other Castro]

EV from all counties:

Jon Ossoff (Democratic)    62.0%   31,132
Karen Handel (Republican)    14.1%   7,095
Dan Moody (Republican)    8.4%   4,230
Bob Gray (Republican)    6.9%   3,457
Judson Hill (Republican)    5.3%   2,674
David Abroms (Republican)    0.7%   359
Kurt Wilson (Republican)    0.7%   340
Ragin Edwards (Democratic)    0.4%   198
Ron Slotin (Democratic)    0.3%   141
Bruce Levell (Republican)    0.2%   116
Keith Grawert (Republican)    0.2%   92
Rebecca Quigg (Democratic)    0.2%   90
Mohammad Ali Bhuiyan (Republican)    0.2%   84
Richard Keatley (Democratic)    0.1%   63
Amy Kremer (Republican)    0.1%   58
William Llop (Republican)    0.1%   54
Alexander Hernandez (Unaffiliated)    0.0%   25
Andre Pollard (Unaffiliated)    0.0%   8
Write In (Unaffiliated)    0.0%   0
50,216 Total Votes

[The Other Castro]

Again, do not compare Ossoff's ED numbers in precincts directly to Clinton's total votes by precinct. It will not provide accurate analysis.

[The Other Castro]

Oh whoops I accidentally deleted that post but you quoted it so it's all good.

[The Other Castro]

Greg Bluestein‏ @bluestein
Georgia Republicans are antsy, antsy - but say there's a long way to go in #GA06. Says Handel: "We just got to get through tonight." #gapol

[The Other Castro]

OK yeah the NYT percentages are correct, DDHQ didn't update Bob Gray's vote total messing up the #s.

[The Other Castro]

DDHQ has corrected the Gray vote count, their percentages are now in line with others.

[The Other Castro]

Ossoff's total vote benchmark for Cobb is about 43%.

[The Other Castro]

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn
We're going to be here for a while

[The Other Castro]

Can't believe only 4% have reported.

I know, right?

I WANT MORE VOTES

CNN's live monitor says over 30% is reporting?
FAKE news always getting me way too excited

It is over 30%, taking into account EV.

[The Other Castro]

Can't believe only 4% have reported.

I know, right?

I WANT MORE VOTES

CNN's live monitor says over 30% is reporting?
FAKE news always getting me way too excited

It is over 30%, taking into account EV.

CNN is just guessing what % of overall votes are EV (and probably way underestimating). There's no good way to report a percent in when you have early voting.

True, but it's definitely much closer to 30% than 4%.

[The Other Castro]

Some more numbers from Cobb bring Ossoff below 60%, now at 57.8%

[The Other Castro]

Full updated numbers:

Jon Ossoff (Democratic)    57.8%   38,545
Karen Handel (Republican)    15.2%   10,147
Dan Moody (Republican)    8.3%   5,550
Bob Gray (Republican)    8.0%   5,320
Judson Hill (Republican)    7.3%   4,883

[The Other Castro]

Live look at Handel's watch party:

[The Other Castro]

Nate Cohn‏ @Nate_Cohn
Based exclusively on the 41 ~completed precincts:
I'd guess we're on track for 190k, Ossoff at 48. A real MoE on both.

[The Other Castro]

Some Cobb came in, Ossoff now 47% there.

[The Other Castro]

NYT estimates are that:

Cobb = 37% in (Ossoff benchmark is 43%, currently at 47.3%)
Fulton = 1% in (Ossoff benchmark is 49%, currently at 61% but just early vote)
DeKalb = 67% in (Ossoff benchmark is 61%, currenly at 58.5%)

[The Other Castro]

NYT says Fulton now 16% reporting, Ossoff dropped to 55.3% there.