GA-6 Special election discussion thread

[The Other Castro]

4/52 precincts in:

KAY KIRKPATRICK (REP)          55.12%   5,164
CHRISTINE TRIEBSCH (DEM)   44.88%   4,205

[The Other Castro]

In the SD 32 race, Fulton County has completely reported, so just Cobb is remaining.

KAY KIRKPATRICK (REP)           55.43%   7,920
CHRISTINE TRIEBSCH (DEM)    44.57%   6,368

[The Other Castro]

Edited previous post, Fulton is complete, Cobb is only partially complete.

Yeah, don't think this is going anywhere. What was the last margin here?

For Presidential, Trump +13. Judson Hill has been unopposed the past few times he ran, so no reference point there.

[The Other Castro]

5 precincts left in Cobb:

KAY KIRKPATRICK (REP)          56.81%   17,742
CHRISTINE TRIEBSCH (DEM)   43.19%   13,491

[The Other Castro]

"operatives from both parties now consider the Democratic candidate a favorite to pull off what pundits would have considered in January a monumental upset."

http://www.mcclatchydc.com/news/nation-world/national/article151135317.html

[The Other Castro]

"DNC to hire 10 new staffers to boost Ossoff’s campaign"

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http://politics.blog.ajc.com/2017/05/18/georgia-6th-dnc-to-hire-10-new-staffers-to-boost-ossoffs-campaign/

[The Other Castro]

House Majority PAC (D) announced $500K TV ad buy and $200K for GOTV.

Edit: This is a Democratic group, not Republican.

[The Other Castro]

Pence is heading to Georgia to stump for Handel, though the details have not yet been finalized.

http://politics.blog.ajc.com/2017/05/22/pence-plans-june-visit-to-stump-for-handel-in-georgias-6th-runoff/

[The Other Castro]

WHOA

SurveyUSA poll of GA-6: Ossoff +7 (!)

Jon Ossoff - 51%
Karen Handel - 44%
Undecided - 6%

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=e944d747-cc05-4608-90db-ed0527267059

[The Other Castro]

Also:

Brian Lazaro‏ @brianwsb  2m2 minutes ago
Breaking: @wsbtv LIVE debate Karen Handel & Jon Ossoff 6/6 @ 8:00 p.m.  @JustinFarmerWSB host.  @RElliotWSB @bluestein @condo29 panelists

[The Other Castro]

Pretty sizeable reaction to the poll on PredictIt:

[The Other Castro]

Ossoff is definitely in the lead right now but why nobody talking about Handel. It's like her campaign doesn't exist it is basically well she a Republican + she in Georgia = a Win?

I'd imagine that she's too busy raising money to match Ossoff's performance that's she doesn't have time to do enough public campaigning.

[The Other Castro]

Handel made an honorable and courageous decision at Komen, but right now we need Ossoff in congress to lessen the power of Trump.

Yet apparently not Quist, who would probably vote in almost exactly the same way on everything.

[The Other Castro]

This is some painful stuff from Handel:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CgcDMYC27JM

[The Other Castro]

Decision Desk HQ @DecisionDeskHQ  18m18 minutes ago
As of tonight, 55,001 ballots cast already in #GA06 runoff. That's just <2k short of the TOTAL early vote in the first round.

https://twitter.com/DecisionDeskHQ/status/871905970829627392

[The Other Castro]

Well, you can bet that Republicans are not going to run Handel against Ossoff again next year if he wins the runoff.

[The Other Castro]

New AJC poll: http://politics.blog.ajc.com/2017/06/09/ajc-poll-ossoff-opens-lead-over-handel-in-georgias-6th/

Ossoff 51
Handel 44

1000 RV, MOE 4%

Nice, Ossoff is now consistently hitting or crossing 50%.

[The Other Castro]

Just saying though, while this poll is a good sign, it is very unlikely to be close to the final result. Democratic internals that I know of have it closer to dead even.

[The Other Castro]

Crosstabs for the AJC poll (68 pages!): http://www.myajc.com/news/state--regional-govt--politics/georgia-6th-district-poll-crosstabs/dNc8JjOS3M8rQHgagKbfGP/

Found in these cross tabs:

54% of likely voters have been contacted in-person by Ossoff camp; only 25% contacted in-person by Handel camp

[The Other Castro]

What is considered winning here is a complicated question. In terms of getting a result indicative of flipping the house in 2018, Ossoff has already done that and will do that again in the runoff if he only loses by a couple of points or so. However, this has been hyped up so much now that the only way Dems can spin a win in the short term is if they actually win this election. It will be close, and as of right now Ossoff appears favored, but I do not believe by more than 2 points at most. Also, I don't think other Democrats would be doing as well as Ossoff, who has surprised me in how disciplined and professional he is as a first time candidate.

[The Other Castro]

GA-6 Special Runoff EV (102,790) has just exceeded the 2014 GA-6 EV (99,042), with four whole days of early voting left.

[The Other Castro]

For people freaking out about polls, an Ossoff+3 race would produce tied and +6 polls at about the same rate.

Also, interesting bit from this poll:

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There's also this, which shows the difference in polling from this pollster could be partially due to the sample used:

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[The Other Castro]

The DCCC is out with a "we really tried" memo that sure sounds like it's setting a narrative for a loss to Handel. Um.

https://twitter.com/gdebenedetti/status/874616868409155584

I can't tell you what this email means, but they do not think they are losing this race right now.

[The Other Castro]

The DCCC is out with a "we really tried" memo that sure sounds like it's setting a narrative for a loss to Handel. Um.

https://twitter.com/gdebenedetti/status/874616868409155584

I can't tell you what this email means, but they do not think they are losing this race right now.

They're not going to admit they think they're losing to you, because then they risk you spreading that info and widening Handel's margin of victory, which adds to the Dems can't win narrative. They wouldn't release that memo if they believed they have the race locked up.

They don't think it's locked up and I never said that. Also, you shouldn't assume the nature of my relationships.

[The Other Castro]

The DCCC is out with a "we really tried" memo that sure sounds like it's setting a narrative for a loss to Handel. Um.

https://twitter.com/gdebenedetti/status/874616868409155584

I can't tell you what this email means, but they do not think they are losing this race right now.

They're not going to admit they think they're losing to you, because then they risk you spreading that info and widening Handel's margin of victory, which adds to the Dems can't win narrative. They wouldn't release that memo if they believed they have the race locked up.

They don't think it's locked up and I never said that. Also, you shouldn't assume the nature of my relationships.

Unless you have some personal connection to the head of the DCCC, they will probably tell you they think they're going to win no matter what to stay on the safe side. Also I didn't say you were saying that the race is locked up, just that if the Dems were confident of victory, they wouldn't release that memo.

That's not how that works here. Departments are not going to mislead other departments on the state of races, considering it determines how we use our resources. Much of the information we have on the race is available to more than just individual people.