GA-6 Special election discussion thread

[The Other Castro]

Wow. As of this moment, Ossoff and the top 5 Republicans combined have exactly the same number of votes at 88,562 each.

[The Other Castro]

Trump tweets:

Donald J. Trump‏ @realDonaldTrump
Despite major outside money, FAKE media support and eleven Republican candidates, BIG "R" win with runoff in Georgia. Glad to be of help!

[The Other Castro]

Fulton updated and now 78% in, Ossoff now at 48.3%. 25 precincts, ~11,000 votes remaining.

Jon Ossoff (Democratic)    48.3%   90,732
Karen Handel (Republican)    19.7%   36,944
Bob Gray (Republican)    10.7%   20,102
Judson Hill (Republican)    8.9%   16,690
Dan Moody (Republican)    8.8%   16,602

[The Other Castro]

NYT calls runoff.

Also if I hear one more person say that all Dems need to do is move to the center...

[The Other Castro]

Gabriel Debenedetti @gdebenedetti
•'16 margin in KS4: R+31. '17: +7 (-24 swing)
•'16 margin in GA-06: R+24. '17: ~even (-24ish)
•'16 in MT-AL: R+15
•'16 in SC-5: R+20

[The Other Castro]

I am beyond disappointed although unsurprised. It's astounding how we have an incompetent excuse for a president in the White House, and the Democrats can't get their act together. It's just loss after loss, and it's the regular citizens that suffer from it in the end. MT is their last chance to show that they can do something about it.

This race isn't lost, Ossoff has pretty close to even odds in the runoff. That Dems might be disappointed by this is ridiculous.

[The Other Castro]

Ossoff statement on results:

[The Other Castro]

Damn...I was so close. No predicit riches for me.

Couldn't you have cashed out early?

I'm just gonna leave my shares till the run off and not look at them.

I'm either gonna win $1500 or lose $500.

Also, godamn the trolling on Predicits message boards are insane

Never never never read the comment boards. You will lose all your money.

[The Other Castro]

Ossoff just challenged Handel to six debates before the runoff.

[The Other Castro]

Finally, a poll!

GA-6 Runoff - Anzalone Liszt Grove (D): Ossoff +1

Jon Ossoff - 48%
Karen Handel - 47%
Undecided - 5%

*This is an internal poll for the Ossoff campaign by a pollster that worked for Clinton and Obama.

http://politics.blog.ajc.com/2017/05/01/poll-ossoff-in-dead-heat-with-handel-in-georgias-6th/

[The Other Castro]

Ossoff has reserved $5.2 Million in airtime from now until the runoff.

http://politics.blog.ajc.com/2017/05/02/jon-ossoffs-campaign-readies-a-5-2m-ad-blitz/

[The Other Castro]

This is the most expensive House race in U.S. history right?

[The Other Castro]

Campaigns always release internal polls for a reason. Ossoff+1 sends the perfect message to potential activists/donors: "WOW GUYS WE ARE IN THE LEAD THIS IS SO AWESOME BUT JESUS LOOK HOW CLOSE IT IS SO Y'ALL BETTER SEND US SOME CASH MONEY RIGHT THE HELL NOW"

It hits the perfect spot, building optimism without anyone getting complacent

Case in point:

[The Other Castro]

I don't like the optics of winning GA-06 but not Montana

Democrats always troubled by what they were/are/becoming.

I don't necessarily disagree, but Quist could have won this race without breaking a sweat had he actually run a good campaign. In fact, Republicans should be glad that (a) he turned out to be a poor candidate and (b) that Gianforte has run a decent campaign. But like Figueira said, the race certainly isn't over yet, and I'd still rate it Tossup/Tilt R given the high floor Quist has.

My point about internal polls not always being wrong stands. Ossoff at 48% and Handel at 47% isn't implausible, especially if the undecideds are Republican-leaning Independents. Like Bacon and Castro said, I'm sure this was released to motivate Ossoff supporters and donors and not get complacent.

Even Gravis gets it right sometimes. So "not always being wrong" is not some sort of high status. And you can spin that result any way you want. Sure, it's good news (for dems) because it shows a close race. But it's bad news because it was a poll that Ossoff had full control over to suppress or manipulate the methodology of in any way he chose, and all he could get was a tie.

See Bacon's post again and mine about the DCCC. Gravis may get it right sometimes because crappy pollsters do get it right sometimes, while internal polls do get it right sometimes because the optimal numbers that provide the greatest message to supporters for turnout and fundraising can often line up with reality. And that's the private polling that was released for that purpose, while internal polling by campaigns used for gauging support level can be very accurate, as seen in Obama 2012. The only thing this poll means is that Ossoff's campaign wanted a D+1 poll out there.

[The Other Castro]

Also, CNN has picked up the Handel husband slavery story:

"GOP candidate's husband shares image urging voters to 'free the black slaves from the Democratic plantation'"

http://www.cnn.com/2017/05/02/politics/kfile-karen-handel-husband-tweet/index.html

[The Other Castro]

Here's that new D internal poll, conducted by GBA Strategies:

Ossoff - 50%
Handel - 48%

Poll of 400 LV conducted over April 29-May 1.

https://perma.cc/WLZ3-B6SH

[The Other Castro]

Being a 59-41 favorite still makes the race a Tossup, he is by no means calling it.

[The Other Castro]

This tells us what we already knew. The race is close, and it's going to likely end very close.

[The Other Castro]

Paul Ryan to campaign with Karen Handel on May 15.

http://politics.blog.ajc.com/2017/05/06/paul-ryan-to-campaign-with-karen-handel-on-may-15/

[The Other Castro]

Ossoff campaign wanted six debates, and just announced that they reached an agreement for at least three with Handel. Handel campaign says they have not confirmed these three debates yet.

https://twitter.com/bluestein/status/861569669731373056

[The Other Castro]

Ew. Well, at least Handel's are pretty bad as well, fundraising off of the extended registration period as a partisan trick.

[The Other Castro]

Ossoff reserves another $6.6 million in airtime.

http://politics.blog.ajc.com/2017/05/11/ossoff-ups-the-ante-pours-6-6m-into-ads-for-6th-district-runoff/

This is going to be like a $50 million race when this is over.

[The Other Castro]

Ossoff reserves another $6.6 million in airtime.

http://politics.blog.ajc.com/2017/05/11/ossoff-ups-the-ante-pours-6-6m-into-ads-for-6th-district-runoff/

This is going to be like a $50 million race when this is over.

That's insane and utterly unsustainable

It's for airtime up until the runoff.

[The Other Castro]

Maybe Handel is a weak candidate and Ossoff a strong one. If Ossoff can get a large share of the GOP vote with a centrist campaign appealing get to college-educated whites it might put a dent in the claim that Democrats need to be like Bernie to win.

Different Democrats are better suited to win in different places. There's a reason Bernie's going to Montana and Tom Perez is not, and why Bernie's not going to Georgia.

[The Other Castro]

There has been a surge in complaints of stolen campaign signs, especially Ossoff signs.

http://politics.blog.ajc.com/2017/05/15/vatican/

Also, if Handel is favored, she is by the smidgiest of smidgens. This feels like a true tossup to me.