The absentee/early vote thread

[The Other Castro]

Important to note for NC:

(((Will Cubbison))) ‏@wccubbison
NC Early Vote Sites:
Yesterday 248
Today 253
Tomorrow 394 (!!)
After a weekend drop and only 120 Sunday, 400+ all next week

[The Other Castro]

Michael McDonald ‏@ElectProject
Colorado mail ballot stats: 416,951 voted, Dems +6.1 points over Reps (was +8.1 y'day)
http://www.sos.state.co.us/pubs/newsRoom/index.html

Michael McDonald ‏@ElectProject
Despite closing reg Dem lead in CO, 2K more Dems than Reps returned ballots y'day. As ballots pile up, will be harder to move percentages

Michael McDonald ‏@ElectProject
Kicking myself for not saving the CO 2012 daily updates, but at the end of 2012, reg Reps were +1.8 points over Dems

[The Other Castro]

Nate Cohn ‏@Nate_Cohn  2m2 minutes ago Washington, DC
Clinton leads 59-36 in the North Carolina early vote with more than 800k votes cast. We'll be tracking it daily

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/upshot/north-carolina-early-vote-tracker.html

Nice!

[The Other Castro]

Michael McDonald ‏@ElectProject  18m18 minutes ago
TX early voting (mail & in-person) in the 15 largest counties as of 10/25: 969,243 people have voted, up 46.2% from say point in 2012


Dave Wasserman ‏@Redistrict  9m9 minutes ago
Biggest TX early voting increases vs. '12, as of Day 2:
1. Travis (D) +119%
2. El Paso (D) +93%
3. Williamson (R) +89%
4. Collin (R) +72%

[The Other Castro]

Michael McDonald ‏@ElectProject  6m6 minutes ago
Colorado early vote 10/27 update:
Good news for Reps: reg Dem +5.1 today, was +6.1 y'day
Bad news: 3,581 more Dem returns, lead now +28,832

[The Other Castro]

A new record of over 18.7 million Californians have registered to vote.

http://sacramento.cbslocal.com/2016/10/25/18-7-million-california-voter-registration-sets-record/

[The Other Castro]

Michael McDonald ‏@ElectProject  3m3 minutes ago
Nevada early vote (mail and in-person) update: 313K voted (for in-person, +13.1% from 2012). Reg Dems +15.9 points over Reps

Michael McDonald ‏@ElectProject  1m1 minute ago
Nevada already at 44.5% of their 2012 total early vote. Reps are going to have to turn things around soon for Trump to have a chance

Michael McDonald ‏@ElectProject  14m14 minutes ago
CORRECTION! Dems +8.9 points over Reps (unfortunately shifted the mail ballot columns)

[The Other Castro]

Michael McDonald
‏@ElectProject
TX early vote update: just shy of 1.4 Million people voted, running 49.9% over 2012 numbers
http://www.sos.state.tx.us/elections/earlyvoting/2016/oct26.shtml


Dave Wasserman ‏@Redistrict  1h1 hour ago
TX early voting increases vs. '12, Day 3:
1. Travis (D) +117%
2. Williamson (R) +89%
3. El Paso (D) +83%
4. Collin (R) +71%
+50% overall

Dave Wasserman ‏@Redistrict  1h1 hour ago
VA: so far, absentee votes cast are already 59% of '12 totals in Arlington/Fairfax/Prince William. Only 45% of '12 totals everywhere else.

[The Other Castro]

Hmmm yeah if there are conflicting reports, I'd trust @Taniel and McDonald before Wasserman.

Also: Latino Decisions - Early vote spotlight on 3 Hidalgo Co. TX voting locations shows Latino early vote numbers up by about 60% compared to 2012.

[The Other Castro]

Michael McDonald Retweeted
Kate Amara ‏@kateamaraWBAL  1h1 hour ago
Massive!! MD Early Voting Day 1 as of 4:44pm: 92,562 voters have checked in statewide. Crushed 2012 general day 1 total: 78,409.

[The Other Castro]

Texas Tribune has a great early vote tracker that compares county numbers to 2012 and 2008.



https://apps.texastribune.org/texas-early-voting-tracker/?utm_campaign=trib-social&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter&utm_content=1477592335

[The Other Castro]

10/27 Maine update:

[The Other Castro]

NC 10/28:

[The Other Castro]

[The Other Castro]

Regarding PA and MI on the above chart:

Michael McDonald ‏@ElectProject  20s21 seconds ago
Michael McDonald Retweeted Carrie Dann
PA shouldn't be on chart. An excuse-required state will have low single digits of early votes skewing older and Rep

Michael McDonald ‏@ElectProject  1m1 minute ago
MI also excuse required absentee voting. One of the excuses is that you're age 60 or older. Skews that state's numbers, too.

[The Other Castro]

(((Harry Enten)))Verified account
‏@ForecasterEnten
@ralstonreports Is the cake mostly baked in NV cause of the early vote? (at least in the prez race...)

Jon Ralston
‏@RalstonReports Jon Ralston Retweeted (((Harry Enten)))
Not quite yet, but pretty close. If Democrats get up to 60,000 or so raw vote lead in Clark, which looks likely, bye bye Trump.

[The Other Castro]

Michael McDonald
‏@ElectProject
TX #earlyvote 10/28 update: nearly 1.8 Million voted, up 49.9% same days before election in 2012
http://www.sos.state.tx.us/elections/earlyvoting/index.shtml

[The Other Castro]

KS Sec. of State ‏@KansasSOS
So far statewide, 153,603 votes cast in this election. Compared to 117,086 in 2012.

That's a 31% increase over 2012.

[The Other Castro]

I believe Michigan is a state where Republicans typically outpace Democrats in absentee voting.

Strict excuse absentee ballots.

[The Other Castro]

Nate Cohn ‏@Nate_Cohn
Florida's registered voters, now final:
2016: White 64.2, Hispanic 15.7, Black 13.4
2012: White 66.5, Hispanic 13.9, Black 13.6

[The Other Castro]

Nate Cohn ‏@Nate_Cohn
Florida's registered voters, now final:
2016: White 64.2, Hispanic 15.7, Black 13.4
2012: White 66.5, Hispanic 13.9, Black 13.6

Also for reference, 2008: White 69, Black 13.1, Hispanic 12

[The Other Castro]

10/30:


Michael McDonald ‏@ElectProject  6m6 minutes ago
Dems continue to make up lost ground in NC with the expansion of polling locations. Down -4.0% from 2012 levels today, was -4.7% y'day.

Michael McDonald ‏@ElectProject  4m4 minutes ago
Like Georgia yesterday, NC early voters became younger. Age 60+ went from 47.8% to 46.0% (-1.8%) of early voters in one day

Michael McDonald ‏@ElectProject  1m1 minute ago
Today is the critical "souls to polls" day for African-American churches in North Carolina. There is no NC Sunday in-person voting next week.

Michael McDonald ‏@ElectProject  43s44 seconds ago
More NC Dems voted yesterday than in 2012 (+7,062), dispelling pundit speculation that Comey letter would slow down Dem voting

[The Other Castro]

Based on polling, I'm starting to think that Hillary's getting a % of Registered Republicans and unaffiliateds in the early vote.

Regarding registered unafilliateds, most definitely. The kind of numbers in the early voter polls would probably not be possible without sizeable Clinton strength in that group.

[The Other Castro]

Trump is telling people not to vote by mail in Colorado:

http://edition.cnn.com/2016/10/30/politics/donald-trump-write-in-ballots/index.html

[The Other Castro]

Looks like Ralston was fearmongering a bit earlier:

Jon Ralston ‏@RalstonReports  2m2 minutes ago
25,676 had voted in Clark by 6 PM. Will be relatively low, but raw votes higher than 2012.