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The Other Castro
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« Reply #25 on: October 26, 2016, 10:11:14 AM »
For reference, Monmouth last NH poll in mid/late September was:

P: HRC 47 / DJT 38 (D+9)
S: Ayotte 47 / Hassan 45 (R+2)
G: Sununu 49 / Van Ostern 43 (R+6)

I'll say: Clinton +10, Hassan +1, Sununu +2
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #26 on: October 27, 2016, 11:12:22 AM »
Previous Q results (4 or 3-way/2-way):
Iowa: Trump +7/6 (9/13-9/21)
Georgia: Trump +7/6 (9/13-9/21)
North Carolina: Clinton +3/3 (9/27-10/2)
Virginia: Clinton +6/7 (9/13-9/21)

Based on that I'll guess
GA: Trump +4/3
IA: Trump +3/2
NC: Clinton +4/4
VA: Clinton +7/8
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #27 on: October 27, 2016, 03:45:59 PM »
For the Senate races, I'll guess:
GA: Isakson +16
IA: Grassley +8
NC: Ross +2
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #28 on: October 28, 2016, 08:57:29 AM »
Seems like PPP is only doing private client polls for the rest of the election.

PublicPolicyPolling ‏@ppppolls  4m4 minutes ago
We're just going to run our private business and leave the public poller coaster to everyone else for the last week and a half (1 of 2)

PublicPolicyPolling ‏@ppppolls  3m3 minutes ago
But I'm sure our clients will release some of the polls we do for them in the closing stretch (2 of 2)
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #29 on: October 28, 2016, 12:28:08 PM »
From Monmouth:

Patrick Murray ‏@PollsterPatrick  1m1 minute ago
Great. All we have is Comey's letter; weekend TV will be pure speculation.

Just started bunch of state polls; may or may not catch effect
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #30 on: October 28, 2016, 06:36:41 PM »
ME-2: Johnson 99%, McMullin 1%.
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The Other Castro
Castro2020
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« Reply #31 on: October 28, 2016, 06:43:10 PM »
Quote from: cinyc on October 28, 2016, 06:41:50 PM

McMullin isn't on the ballot in Maine.  Just Trump, Clinton, Johnson and Stein.

You can take the Mormon out of Maine, but you can't take Maine out of the Mormon. I don't really know what I'm saying right now since I'm a little drunk, but my boy mcmuffins got this.
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #32 on: October 30, 2016, 08:46:27 PM »
C+4
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #33 on: October 31, 2016, 08:03:49 AM »
« Edited: October 31, 2016, 08:05:36 AM by Castro »
MonmouthPoll ‏@MonmouthPoll  5m5 minutes ago
Looking at key Senate races this week (scheduled before Friday's news - who knew?)

Coming today: INDIANA.

Previous poll from October 11-13 had Trump +4, Bayh +6, Gregg +12.
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The Other Castro
Castro2020
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« Reply #34 on: October 31, 2016, 09:58:50 AM »
Btw, since Monmouth said they're looking at key Senate races this week, I have a feeling (not confirmed by anything yet), that they might poll North Carolina, Missouri, and Pennsylvania.
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The Other Castro
Castro2020
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« Reply #35 on: October 31, 2016, 03:03:10 PM »

Lol well I'll be damned.
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The Other Castro
Castro2020
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« Reply #36 on: November 01, 2016, 09:11:25 AM »
Quote from: BoAtlantis on October 30, 2016, 03:42:40 PM
Tom Bonier –  ‏@tbonier
@marcus_356 We'll be releasing a new poll there tomorrow, and will have EV/AV numbers matched back to actual vote history."


Targetsmart will apparently release FL poll tomorrow.

Update on this from today:

Tom Bonier
‏@tbonier
4) Tomorrow AM we will release our latest @_TargetSmart and W&M tracking survey of Florida, including full breakouts of EV/AV.

Tom Bonier
‏@tbonier
5) I've seen the initial results, and I can say they will challenge the conventional wisdom of where the race stands. Tune in tomorrow!

Based on what Tom has been saying about Dem strength among unaffiliated voters, I think he's going spring on us a Clinton +5 poll or something like that.
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #37 on: November 01, 2016, 02:22:51 PM »
I have a bad feeling about this poll for some reason, mostly based on their past trends (not because I think WI is actually in danger). I hope I'm wrong, but I'll say Trump +1.
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #38 on: November 01, 2016, 05:45:57 PM »
It's funny how there's a good chance we'll see Clinton leading by more in Florida than Wisconsin tomorrow.
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #39 on: November 01, 2016, 05:53:25 PM »
Quote from: Happy Sad Trumpista on November 01, 2016, 05:50:43 PM
Quote from: Castro on November 01, 2016, 05:45:57 PM
It's funny how there's a good chance we'll see Clinton leading by more in Florida than Wisconsin tomorrow.
What do you mean?

Because FL poll is coming from D firm, while WI is coming from WI's gold scandal non-partisan pollster?

Agree. It was my point in internals thread.

I didn't know Marquette was a gold scandal pollster. That's pretty cool.
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #40 on: November 01, 2016, 06:06:48 PM »
Quote from: Happy Sad Trumpista on November 01, 2016, 05:57:08 PM
Quote from: Castro on November 01, 2016, 05:53:25 PM
Quote from: Happy Sad Trumpista on November 01, 2016, 05:50:43 PM
Quote from: Castro on November 01, 2016, 05:45:57 PM
It's funny how there's a good chance we'll see Clinton leading by more in Florida than Wisconsin tomorrow.
What do you mean?

Because FL poll is coming from D firm, while WI is coming from WI's gold scandal non-partisan pollster?

Agree. It was my point in internals thread.

I didn't know Marquette was a gold scandal pollster. That's pretty cool.

Sigh... Nice deflection... Sigh...

Yes that's what I was referring to before.
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The Other Castro
Castro2020
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« Reply #41 on: November 01, 2016, 08:42:55 PM »
Quote from: psychprofessor on November 01, 2016, 08:40:11 PM

I think the Clinton camp knows what it has in the NPA's in FL and the unaffiliated in NC.

Win An Election ‏@Proud_of_Obama  2m2 minutes ago
@Lawrence @HillaryClinton @TheLastWord on a scale of 1-10(happiest) how happy should Dems be?

Lawrence O'Donnell ‏@Lawrence  1m1 minute ago
@Proud_of_Obama @HillaryClinton @TheLastWord 9

Hohhhhhhhhhhhhdamnnn
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #42 on: November 01, 2016, 09:02:25 PM »
Lol well O'Donnell just said that this will dominate all the news and that the race is over.
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #43 on: November 02, 2016, 09:33:43 AM »
PA: Clinton +7, McGinty +1
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #44 on: November 02, 2016, 10:49:14 AM »
Relevant: What to look for when the polling drought ends

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/03/upshot/what-to-look-for-when-the-polling-drought-ends.html
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #45 on: November 02, 2016, 11:29:43 AM »
I miss the good old days when FLOHPANC was key. Now it's like FLOHNVIAWINC.
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #46 on: November 02, 2016, 11:50:21 AM »
Harry Enten guesses Clinton +2 in Marquette.
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #47 on: November 02, 2016, 11:52:17 AM »
TargetSmart is in the field in Ohio, will have a poll out on Sunday/Monday.
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #48 on: November 02, 2016, 04:23:05 PM »
Quote from: dspNY on November 02, 2016, 03:57:56 PM
Not in stone but possible state polls this weekend:

Selzer/DMR: Iowa
Ohio poll
Columbus Dispatch poll (OH)
A final PPP poll of NC


Ooo this'll be one to watch. I wonder if they'll do a big event for it like they did for the final caucus poll.
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The Other Castro
Castro2020
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« Reply #49 on: November 03, 2016, 09:32:25 AM »
Maybe that means Monmouth will do one final National poll, since they said it's their last state poll.
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