The “Who is running in 2020?” tea leaves thread

[The Other Castro]

Cory Booker really isn't that bad of a guy...

[The Other Castro]

I really do believe Franken when he says he's not going to run. The way he denies interest is more real than the way others do.

[The Other Castro]

Edward-Isaac Dovere‏ @IsaacDovere
LA Mayor & maybe 2020er @ericgarcetti's first stop since being sworn into 2nd term 7/1: Berlin, to talk trade, tourism and to @DemsAbroad

https://twitter.com/IsaacDovere/status/882356332350853121


Cory Booker on David Axelrod's podcast:

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http://www.cnn.com/2017/07/04/politics/cory-booker-axe-files/index.html

[The Other Castro]

DSA is staging protests against most senators for Trumpcare & for promoting Single Payer. They possibly had one at Booker's office too. Booker is absolutely toxic to the Bernie base !

That would be unfortunate for Booker if he was running for President of the Bernie Party.

[The Other Castro]

Warren raised $3.45 Million last quarter, bringing her COH to $11.03 Million. She'll probably end with a bunch of leftover money...I wonder what she might use it for...

http://www.politico.com/story/2017/07/13/elizabeth-warren-fundraising-democrats-240488

[The Other Castro]

I've gone into further detail with this in my TL, but I believe that Harris is uniquely situated to bypass the Sanders/Clinton dynamic that may emerge for others like Warren and Clinton-type candidates.

[The Other Castro]

Kirsten Gillibrand tweeted a picture of her new dog, which she has named "Maple".

https://twitter.com/sengillibrand/status/886928508773171202

Which state is known for providing large quantities of maple syrup? Vermont. This is clearly just some sad attempt to win over Sanders voters. Does she think we're stupid? Does she think we won't notice? The truth is out there.

[The Other Castro]

Klobuchar heading to Iowa again.



https://twitter.com/jasonnobledmr/status/887364677583470592

[The Other Castro]

Brown's chances of being the VP pick go way up if a Democrat wins the OH Gov race next year.

[The Other Castro]

Biden heading to SC, will be keynote speaker for Charleston NAACP's 100th anniversary fundraiser.

http://www.postandcourier.com/news/joe-biden-will-be-keynote-speaker-for-the-charleston-naacp/article_25f8e6ea-75f2-11e7-b414-9fec3881361f.html

[The Other Castro]

ObamaWorld is pushing Deval Patrick to run.

http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2017/08/01/obamas-inner-circle-is-urging-deval-patrick-to-run-215443

[The Other Castro]

David Bernstein: Booker/Gillibrand/Harris/Klobuchar have told donors they're running.

No surprises there, despite their "denials".

[The Other Castro]

It's probably time for me to rework my list of potential candidates. First, this is a comprehensive list of pretty much every plausible Democratic candidate by most recent position (in no particular order):

VPs: Biden, Gore
Governors: Bullock, Hickenlooper, Cuomo, O'Malley, Chafee, Patrick, McAuliffe, Brown
Senators: Booker, Harris, Klobuchar, Warren, Murphy, Gillibrand, Merkley, Sanders, Brown
Representatives: Delaney, Moulton, Ryan, Schiff, Gabbard
Mayors: Garcetti, Landrieu
Other politicians: Castro, Kander, Holder, Kerry, Kennedy, Clinton
Other non-politicians: Zuckerberg, Johnson, Cuban, Schultz, Iger, Steyer

In total, this is 38 names, though many of these people likely will not run. A more helpful list is to sort them into categories of likelihood.

Categories of Likelihood:

1. Declared: 1
-Congressman John Delaney (MD-6)

2. Senators and Governors under 70 who have expressed serious interest: 10
-Senator Cory Booker (NJ)
-Senator Kirsten Gillibrand (NY)
-Senator Amy Klobuchar (MN)
-Senator Elizabeth Warren (MA)
-Senator Kamala Harris (CA)
-Governor Martin O'Malley (MD)
-Governor Andrew Cuomo (NY)
-Governor Steve Bullock (MT)
-Governor John Hickenlooper (CO)
-Governor Terry McAuliffe (VA)

3. Senators, Governors, and VPs 70+ who have expressed serious interest: 2
-VP Joe Biden (DE)
-Senator Bernie Sanders (VT)

4. Representatives, Mayors, and Others who have expressed serious interest: 6
-Congressman Tim Ryan (OH-13)
-Congressman Seth Moulton (MA-6)
-Mayor Mitch Landrieu (New Orleans, LA)
-Mayor Eric Garcetti (Los Angeles, CA)
-MO SoS Jason Kander (MO)
-HUD Sec. Julian Castro (TX)

5. Senators and Governors who may be interested: 6
-Senator Chris Murphy (CT)
-Senator Jeff Merkley (OR)
-Senator Sherrod Brown (OH)
-Governor Lincoln Chafee (RI)
-Governor Deval Patrick (MA)
-Governor Jerry Brown (CA)

6. Representatives, Mayors, and Others who may be interested: 5
-Congressman Adam Schiff (CA-28)
-Congresswoman Tulsi Gabbard (HI-2)
-AG Eric Holder
-Actor Dwayne Johnson
-Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg

7. All Others who could plausibly be interested in running, but probably won't run: 8
-SoS Hillary Clinton
-SoS John Kerry
-Businessman Mark Cuban
-VP Al Gore
-Hedge Fund Manager Tom Steyer
-Ambassador Caroline Kennedy
-Disney CEO Bob Iger
-Starbucks Chairman Howard Schultz

[The Other Castro]

I figured I may as well include her just to be safe. I would have broken down the list into more categories, but it seemed a little excessive at that point to go behind seven. I don't think you can make a list without putting your own opinion into it regarding the likelihood of some candidates, so each list could be different but still fair.

[The Other Castro]

Bill de Blasio is in way over his head if he thinks he's the heir to the Sanders fortune.

[The Other Castro]

Hickenlooper's running, and will get 4% of the vote in Iowa.

That actually wouldn't be that bad, considering how the votes are counted in Iowa and how many people will be running.

[The Other Castro]

Gabriel Debenedetti‏ @gdebenedetti
Guess who's returning to New Hampshire! @BernieSanders back to Manchester on Labor Day—that's 2 Iowa visits and 1 New Hampshire trip in '17.

https://twitter.com/gdebenedetti/status/897488814712770560

[The Other Castro]

Willie Geist‏ @WillieGeist
NEW: Sources close to @JohnKasich tell me, after Charlottesville, there is growing sense of "moral imperative" to primary Trump in 2020.

https://twitter.com/WillieGeist/status/897926417052127232

[The Other Castro]

Ha that'll be the day. A centrist unity ticket is a pipe dream.

[The Other Castro]

[The Other Castro]

Democratic Representatives mentioned here as potential candidates:

-Rep. Grace Meng (NY-6)
-Rep. Tim Ryan (OH-13)
-Rep. Eric Swalwell (CA-15)
-Rep. Cheri Bustos (IL-17)
-Rep. Seth Moulton (MA-6)

This is a first mention I think I've seen of Grace Meng.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/democrats-hit-the-road-far-away-from-their-usual-voters-to-win-back-washington/2017/08/25/85fb3692-842f-11e7-ab27-1a21a8e006ab_story.html?utm_term=.29a6ae4545fc


Also, Garcetti is doing a Hamptons meet and greet.

Shane Goldmacher‏ @ShaneGoldmacher
NEW: LA Mayor Eric Garcetti is headed to the HAMPTONS this weekend en route to NH. Billionaire donor Ronald Perelman hosting cocktails.

Shane Goldmacher‏ @ShaneGoldmacher
Replying to @ShaneGoldmacher
Garcetti, stoking 2020 talk, will campaign for Dem mayoral candidate in Manchester on Monday. Cocktails at Perelman's The Creeks on Sunday.

https://twitter.com/ShaneGoldmacher/status/900787463446286336

[The Other Castro]

Chris Murphy is preparing a Medicare buy-in type program as an alternative to Sanders' plan.

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The fact that the more moderate Democratic position in 2020 is still going to be this kind of major expansion in Medicare should tell you something about what the eventual nominee is going to be like.

http://www.politico.com/story/2017/09/07/murphy-democrats-rising-star-healthcare-bernie-sanders-242455

[The Other Castro]

I think Kander is just doing all this to keep himself relevant for if he decides to run for governor in 2020.

[The Other Castro]

Allies of Donald Trump are preparing against several potential Democratic opponents, including:

-Elizabeth Warren
-Sherrod Brown
-Cory Booker
-Kirsten Gillibrand
-Bernie Sanders
-Andrew Cuomo
-Amy Klobuchar
-Chris Murphy

http://www.politico.com/story/2017/09/18/trump-team-guns-for-2020-rivals-242781

[The Other Castro]

Jason Kander, John Delaney, and Tulsi Gabbard are headed to Iowa next month.

https://twitter.com/IAStartingLine/status/910180656264695808