CNN - Trump and Sanders lead IA

[The Other Castro]

Sanders surge and Republican nominee Trump confirmed!

[The Other Castro]

The answer was so simple and staring at me the whole time, but I just couldn't see it. It looks like Trump is now more likely than not to be the next Republican nominee for President.

[The Other Castro]

Thank you darththebearnc for reminding me of this, apparently I am psychic:

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It's a YUGE day for sh**tty college polls.

Well at this rate Sanders should have an 8 point lead in Iowa today.

[The Other Castro]

Nate Silver's attacking this poll for being too loose on Twitter.

He's not attacking it for being loose, he's just noting it's looseness. He even said "there are sometimes reasons to prefer looser screens. It can be hard to predict who will vote. Also, self-selection in who responds to poll."

[The Other Castro]

Men: Sanders leads 63-32-4
Women: Clinton leads 56-38-4
Whites: Sanders leads 49-45-3
Democrats: Sanders leads 48-47-3

[The Other Castro]

Men: Sanders leads 63-32-4
Women: Clinton leads 56-38-4
Whites: Sanders leads 49-45-3
Democrats: Sanders leads 48-47-3

That can literally not be true.  Bernie is not winning Iowa by more than he is winning whitey.

The total and the white numbers both have +- 6% margins of error so who knows. Maybe his nonwhite numbers are very strong, but CNN didn't release those.