Nov. 10 Fox Business GOP debate criteria released: 2.5% poll average required

[The Other Castro]

There's a new Quinnipiac poll coming out tomorrow morning.

[The Other Castro]

There's a new Quinnipiac poll coming out tomorrow morning.

I had a feeling there would be another. Heard anything about Fox? Seems likely they would have a poll out for their debate (I know it's Fox Biz but same diff).

I would assume so.

[The Other Castro]

Gilmore probably will be left out again, but at least one of either Pataki or Jindal will make it (though I think both will). It seems like it will be difficult for Christie to get an average of 3% over the next two polls, with the new question becoming whether he will attend the kiddie table debate, sit it out, or drop out altogether.

[The Other Castro]

I think we're heading towards the scenario with 1 more poll, and IBD not counting. With Rubio and Cruz probably polling above 10 in the next poll, all three of Huckabee, Christie, and Paul are up in the air. Kasich is almost definitely in though, I doubt FOX is going to count IBD.

[The Other Castro]

Fox better come out with a poll today, or we enter the chaos zone in picking the 4th poll.

[The Other Castro]

This is why we can't have nice things.

[The Other Castro]

I don't see a reason why CBS would be excluded (the wording seems fine), but on second look it does seem like Fox might indeed exclude NBC. The only polls I'm positive will be part of the average are FOX and Quinnipiac.

The third and fourth polls are definitely conflicts due to the questionable statuses of IBD and NBC, which could lead to any two-poll combination of CBS, IBD, and NBC polls being used. If we end up with Fox, Quinnipiac, and CBS as the first three polls, and NBC and IBD are excluded, how will they choose between ABC and Monmouth? They were both conducted over the same time frame, but ABC was technically released one day later than Monmouth.

This will be kind of a moot point in a few hours once they announce the lineup, but I could see them counting both ABC and Monmouth and taking the average of the last 5 polls instead. Even after all that, Christie is still at only 2.4%, but Graham, Santorum, Jindal and Pataki all make the kiddie table debate.

[The Other Castro]

^ That does seem to be the most plausible scenario in my opinion.