Enter Sandman

[The Other Castro]

Prologue

August 11th, 2015
10:47 PM

Joel Benenson

Joel was having a disappointing evening even before he got the email. He had just spilled red wine on his new shirt, and was in the midst of hunting for his Tide to Go stain removal pen when his Gmail alert sounded. Joel had a strict policy about urgent emails only coming in after hours. As Chief Strategist, he had enough on his plate already and valued the quiet of his evenings. It was from Mike Vlacich, which at this hour could only mean one thing: There was a New Hampshire poll that he needed to see immediately. As he read the numbers, he felt a chill on his back as if a Spear of Ice was whispering down his spine. His boss was not going to be happy when she saw the headline in tomorrow's paper. He sighed as he reached for the phone.

Huma? We have a problem.

[The Other Castro]

One door closes...

October 1st, 2015
1:24 PM

Hunter Biden

This was a mistake, Hunter thought. He remembered his near-breakthrough with his father a few weeks earlier about his decision. As they sat in the living room of their home in South Carolina, there had never been a more tense moment between the Bidens. For the most part, Jill stayed out of it and let her husband and son discuss the matter at hand.

This is what Beau wanted, Dad. I know you want it too. There’s no one else who could do the job better than you; nobody more qualified and ready for it. You can’t give up, it could be your last chance.

Hunter looked out at the crowd of reporters gathering in front of Number One Observatory Circle. No signs, no banners. They knew what the Vice President was about to say. Hunter only listened to parts of his father’s speech, and spent the other parts thinking about the other speech in some other universe being given at that moment.

...honor to serve as your Vice President for these past 7 years...
...continue to serve my country…
...have great Democrats running, and I’m confident in our….
...and I’m sure whoever we end up nominating, he will-he or she-will be our next President...
...heart would not be in another run as we….

Hunter looked away, proud of his father but still wondering what could have been.

[The Other Castro]

...Another door opens

October 2nd, 2015
11:52 AM

Pete D’Alesandro

Pete had a big day ahead of him. As the Iowa campaign coordinator, he had been absolutely swamped for the last week. Senator Sanders had been sweeping through the Hawkeye State at breakneck speed, delivering speech after speech against the efforts of certain Congressional Republicans to defund Planned Parenthood through the budget process. With their attempts thwarted and a Government Shutdown narrowly avoided, the speeches were winding down and Pete was ready for a relaxing weekend.

Pete! Quinnipiac! Now!

Rooney from down the hall never did care much for the intercom. Five more minutes, Pete told himself, and then he would pack it up and spend the next 48 hours sleeping in his hotel room. As soon as he saw the headline, it became clear that he was going to at the office a few hours longer. He felt a small tingling sensation in his face as the numbers danced in front of him. Pete recited the numbers in his head like a prayer, 45 to 41, 45 to 41, 45 to 41. Pete yelled back.

Get me Jeff Weaver!

Sanders had taken the lead in New Hampshire, and now Iowa. Even though Pete had believed they could get there eventually, he never imagined it would happen this soon. It was time to send some of the gravy train flowing to Nevada. If they could open up a lead there...Pete stopped himself. That was a task for another week, Pete thought, as he remembered his bed longingly.

[The Other Castro]

Mind the Gap

December 18th, 2015
3:40 PM

Robby Mook

Within 10? Are you positive? Sh*t, Joel, it’s not even 2016 yet and we’re almost tied. We need an absolute blowout in South Carolina or this could become a real race. He’s an admitted Socialist for God’s sake, do these people getting polled really think he could ever win in the general?

Robby generally liked Bernie Sanders as a person, but today he had nothing but resentment and bitterness towards the man. In the past few months, Sanders had widened his leads in Iowa and New Hampshire, and was nearing statistical ties in the Super Tuesday states Colorado, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Oklahoma, and North Dakota. Worse yet, he was quickly closing the gap in Nevada. If Sanders took both Iowa and New Hampshire, Robby feared that the resulting momentum could be enough to counteract any South Carolina boost for Clinton before Nevada. He looked back to his TV.

…weeks after another disastrous fundraising quarter, has announced his decision to drop out of the Presidential race. Governor Chafee struggled to gain much traction as the spotlight focused on Senator Sanders and Secretary Clinton. Chafee has declined to endorse another candidate for the time being as he exits the race.

Robby was surprised that the withdrawal of such a non-candidate was getting this much attention. Gilmore, Pataki, and Perry combined had gotten about the same coverage as this when they dropped out. He hoped to be watching a similar broadcast about Sanders sooner rather than later.

[The Other Castro]

Hey, this is some good stuff!

Was it intentional to have Chafee's hands appear almost as if they're measuring the gap between Bernie and Hillary?

Thank you very much! I didn't realize that when I picked the picture, good catch.

[The Other Castro]

Bernie Sanders Is Not The 2008 Obama to Clinton's 2016

9:37 AM |  Jan 29, 2016 | By HARRY ENTEN




In 2008, the story goes that the Hillary Clinton was the inevitable nominee, squandered a large lead, and eventually lost the nomination to the more liberal and charismatic Barack Obama. This overblown and simplistic account is being used today in reference to the ‘surging’ Sanders campaign. Although Bernie Sanders has solidified the anti-Hillary crowd, it is impossible for him to use this type of base to propel him to victory.

In recent months, the Sanders campaign has staged a record number of campaign events in the early states of Iowa, New Hampshire, and Nevada. They hope that they will be able to successfully tap into the same network of appeal that let Barack Obama win Iowa (and later the nomination) in 2008. However, they are working on the false assumption that 2016 is like 2008.

Although Clinton’s national lead, as well as her leads in the early primary states, have narrowed to almost within the margin of error, there is much less cause for alarm than most media outlets are reporting. Even in 2008, the polls showed Obama leading Clinton by wide margins in states like New Hampshire, yet she carried the state somewhat comfortably. Sanders may appear to have what some misnomer as momentum, but whatever he has will all but vanish if he fails to even win his neighboring Granite State.

A few months ago, I had written that “The Bernie Sanders Surge Appears To Be Over,” and I completely stand by that. Since that article, the gains that Sanders has made nationally and in the early primary states have been expected, if not underwhelming for a challenger that gets as much media attention as Bernie Sanders. However, much like how these primary campaigns always turn out, his numbers will shrink as the defeats start piling on, and his support will shift back to the more electable Hillary Clinton.

Even if Sanders does win the relatively easy-pickins states of Iowa and New Hampshire (easy as they combine his two main bases of very white and very liberal), any momentum he gains will be quickly dashed before Super Tuesday by Clinton’s expected landslide in South Carolina. Shortly after that, Sanders will look less like Clinton’s 2008 Obama and more like Gore’s 2000 Bradley.


Harry Enten is a senior political writer and analyst for FiveThirtyEight.

[The Other Castro]

Liking the timeline!

Thank you!

[The Other Castro]

Bernman Begins

February 1st, 2016
9:30 AM

Barack Obama

The President awoke later than usual that morning. He had a surprisingly relaxed schedule, with much of the press focused on the Iowa Caucus that evening. His administration had been rather stressed out in the past couple of weeks, as Bernie Sanders rose while Hillary Clinton fell. Barack saw a little of himself in Bernie, and wasn’t the first to draw the comparison to his own run in 2008. Still, Sanders had been a pain in the Obama Administration’s side.

14 hours later

We should’ve let Joe run, he said to Denis McDonough. This could be a disaster.

Barack remembered how he felt during the 2008 Iowa Caucus, how he had that feeling of knowingness that the nomination was his. There was little doubt in his mind that Bernie Sanders had that feeling tonight, and that Hillary Clinton was once again feeling the all too familiar shock, despair, and anger.

Although a small percentage of the vote was still coming in, it wouldn’t change much the clarity in who won that night. 46-40, with Martin O’Malley earning a respectable 9%. For the first time in a long time, Barack Obama honestly had no idea what would happen next.

[The Other Castro]

O’Mayhem

February 9th, 2016
Night of the New Hampshire Primary

Martin O’Malley

Is it time?

Just another few minutes sir, the Senator is just about finished with his speech.

Martin O’Malley sighed, knowing this moment would come sooner or later. He mentally kicked himself for staying in the race, and not running for the open seat in Maryland like his advisors has suggested. I can get the issues across, make my case, and be the first name on the short list for VP, he had thought. The leaked video of him from Black Lives Matter, along with what looked like was going to be 3% in New Hampshire, had put an end to such fantasies.

There will be other short lists, he thought to himself. Whether it be a cabinet position, or even some obscure Ambassadorship, he wasn’t prepared to completely exit the public sphere. Whom he’d be asking for those jobs, he had no idea. Sanders’ decent sized win in Iowa, and now his 54-39 landslide in New Hampshire, had muddled everyone’s expectations for the future.

They’re ready for you now.

Martin walked past the curtain onto the stage, ready to make his last speech. The brisk Manchester air whistled at his coat as he approached the microphone.

[The Other Castro]

Authors Note: I have been busy transitioning back to school but will try to return to this shortly.

[The Other Castro]

The Blue Dogs of War

February 27th, 2016
Night of the South Carolina Primary

Hillary Clinton

This is a f#cking nightmare. 50 percent? What the honest f#ck kind of campaign are we running anyway?

Hillary's staff turned away as she finished her rant on their hollow victory. She needed a landslide, but instead had barely grazed a majority of the vote. South Carolina was supposed to be her big comeback, following her third loss in a row after a 5 point defeat in Nevada. The momentum was going to carry her to a sweep on Super Tuesday, and then it was all downhill from there until the convention.

She had advisors all around her, spouting numbers about random states. Up in Texas, down in Massachusetts. Up in Georgia, down in Minnesota. She was so exhausted and exasperated that words like up and down just seemed arbitrary.  Down wasn’t even supposed to be in their vocabulary, but there it was, scrawled mockingly on the whiteboard.

On the outside she tried to remain firm and resolute, but on the inside, the thought that kept creeping in was, "Is it me?" Everyone had told her that nobody could’ve beaten Obama, but Bernie f#cking Sanders was not Barack Obama. She began to feel one of the worst feelings that a Presidential candidate can experience: doubt. "It really is me," she realized. Her depressing train of thought was stopped in its tracks as Huma Abedin waved a phone in front of her face.

Ma’am? Senator Webb is on the phone. You’re going to want to hear this.

What followed next in her mind as she took the call was surprise, frustration, contemplation, disbelief at her own contemplation, and then serious consideration.

Where’s Bill?
 

[The Other Castro]

Tuesday of the Titans

March 1st, 2016
Night of Super Tuesday

CNN Election Coverage
 
If you are just joining us, we have minutes ago completed our projections for Super Tuesday, and the results are certainly super for the Rubio and Sanders campaigns.

Turning our attention to the Democratic results first, Senator Bernie Sanders has defied already rising expectations and won the great states of Colorado, Massachusetts, Minnesota, North Dakota, Oklahoma, and of course his home state of Vermont. He is also the surprise winner in Georgia, which Clinton had been expected to carry fairly easily.

Meanwhile, Former Secretary Hillary Clinton has carried the great states of Alabama, Arkansas, Tennessee, Virginia, Texas, American Samoa, and the Northern Marianas. This is not a good night for Secretary Clinton, and some are already speculating that this is a backlash to leaked reports of a potential Clinton/Webb ticket. Time will tell if these rumors will continue to haunt the Clinton campaign.

Let’s take a look at our magic wall, where we have the results of the primaries so far:

Next we turn our attention to the Republican results, where Senator Ru...

[The Other Castro]

Next we turn our attention to the Republican results, where Senator Ru...

Seriously Castro?! The ONE person that's in this field that I support the most, and you're gonna leave me hanging like that?

Haha sorry, I'm focusing mostly on the Democratic primaries for this TL but I wanted to weave in a hint or two about how the Republican primaries are going.

Did O'Malley step down or not?

Also, I think I know what Webb's call was about.

Yeah O'Malley dropped out. I tried to keep Webb's call somewhat ambiguous

[The Other Castro]

Does anyone have any comments or suggestions for POV characters, events, speculation, etc?

[The Other Castro]

It could be cool to see a POV from Bill Clinton, especially with Clinton's campaign faltering. Great timeline by the way!

Thank you very much! Working on update now.

[The Other Castro]

Papa's Got Brand New Bag(gage)

March 18th, 2016
3:14 PM

Bill Clinton

Another fundraiser, another dinner, and another round of speeches for Hillary. Bill felt like a violinist on the Titanic, waiting for someone to tell him what a privilege it’s been campaigning with him. He didn’t need the rats around him to start scurrying for him to realize their ship was sinking. Endorsements had been withdrawing support left and right, and the unions were hitting them the hardest. “Not as hard as she’s been hitting me in front of the staffers,” he thought.

The only reason you're endorsing him is because he's a man. Let's just be clear.

He listened halfheartedly to his wife disparage every spineless Governor and Senator that pulled their endorsements. He had fought for her with every ounce of his being in 2008, and intended to do the same this time around. But Bill was tired. He didn’t want to hear the words polling or primary or momentum any more. He was done.

Bill knew better than to talk to Hillary about the chance they could actually lose. The last time, she went paranoid and doubled their number of scheduled appearances in Florida. They ended up winning the Sunshine State, but at the cost of Illinois, Missouri, and almost Ohio. “F#ck Florida,” Bill mused. The New York Primary was coming up, and they had only a single digit lead. If they lost New York, Bill hoped that Hillary would see the writing on the wall before June this time.

...and so ends the campaign of Former Governor Jeb Bush after a disappointing 3rd place finish in his home state of Florida. While Governor Bush is set to make his concession speech later tonight, it is widely expected that he will endorse Senator Marco Rubio over Senator Ted Cruz and businesswoman Carly Fiorina. While the Republican side appears to be wrapping up, the contest for the Democratic nomination has stretched on longer than anyone could have expected. The Clinton campaign today announced a massive reshuffling of key advisors and…

Bill muted the TV and began to nap, thinking longingly of home.

[The Other Castro]

Bern Notice

April 26th, 2016
11:29 PM

Bernie Sanders

Yahoo! It's a celebration

Yahoo!

Celebrate good times, come on!

It's a celebration

Celebrate good times, come on!

Let's celebrate

The music roared as Bernie leaned back on his couch, with a large smile fixed across his face. Staffers and supporters danced and cheered all around the room as the results of what the media had named “Mini Tuesday” came in.

He didn’t believe it when they won Iowa, he didn’t believe it when they began polling as the front-runner, and he didn’t believe it when they carried New York last week. He didn’t believe it now, after sweeping all five states that night, that he was actually going to be the Democratic nominee for President of the United States. If Connecticut, Maryland, Delaware, Pennsylvania, and Rhode Island could support a new wave of progressive reform, then maybe the rest of the country could as well.

Senator? I have messages from Senators Gillibrand and Brown, and Congresswoman Gabbard. It sounds like the Veep talk is starting.

Thank you, Jeff. We have a lot of work to do.

“Probably a woman,” Bernie thought to himself. Many Democrats were still solidly behind Clinton, and he knew just as well as anyone how much Democrats wanted the first female President. If he was going to win in November, the party was going to need to be as united as ever. His advisers were going to stress that they pick someone from a swing state, possibly of a minority race, and definitely much younger than him. The Senator already had some people in mind.

Have a short list ready by the end of the week.

[The Other Castro]

sanders/sinema imo

That's a possibility. The shortlists will be out in the next update.

[The Other Castro]

Veepstakes

June 25th, 2016
1 Month Before the Democratic National Convention

Excerpt from Politico Veep Watch

Sanders VP Short List:
Kirsten Gillibrand
Cory Booker
Tulsi Gabbard
Julian Castro
Amy Klobuchar
Sherrod Brown
Antonio Villaraigosa
Tammy Baldwin
Kyrsten Sinema
Donna Edwards
Deval Patrick

Rubio VP Short List:
Kelly Ayotte
Susana Martinez
Nikki Haley
Brian Sandoval
Carly Fiorina
John Kasich
Scott Walker
John Thune
Joni Ernst
Marsha Blackburn
Terry Branstad

[The Other Castro]

I'm somewhat losing interest in this so I think I'm just going to skip to the end in the next post.

[The Other Castro]

The Scouring of the Shire

Senator Marco Rubio/Governor John Kasich: 281 EV, 50.3% PV
Senator Bernie Sanders/Senator Amy Klobuchar: 257 EV, 47.6% PV