French Legislative Election 2017

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Due to this low turnout the number of tirangulaires should be very low.

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For Elabe FN is at 13%

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Elabe projection

LREM: 32.6%
LR: 20.9%
FN: 13.1%
FI: 11%
PS: 9%

Seats
LREM: 415-445
LR: 80-100
PS: 30-40
FI: 10-20
FN: 1-4

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Pyrénées-Atlantiques, 4th (Jean Lassalle)

Corrégé (LREM): 25.41%
Lassalle: 17.71%

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Finistère, 6th

Ferrand (LREM): 33.93%
Nicolas (LR): 18.10%

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Moselle, 6th

Philippot (FN): 23.79%
Arend (LREM): 22.01%

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Morbihan, 4th

Molac (LREM): 54.00% - Elected

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Map, by La Croix

But updated slowly, I will try to find another one.

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Major surprise maybe in Paris, 14th. It was considered to be a safe LR seat (Fillon won 56% in the first round of the presidential election) but apparently LREM is clearly ahead with 46%

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Benoit Hamon is defeated.

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Cécile Duflot defeated

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LREM/MoDem: leading in 449 constituencies, will be in the runoff in 513 constituencies.
LR/UDI/DVD: leading in 67 constituencies, will be in the runoff in 300 constituencies.
FN: leading in 20 constituencies, will be in the runoff in 118 constituencies.
PS/EELV/DVG: leading in 27 constituencies, will be in the runoff in 73 constituencies.
FI/PCF: leading in 8 constituencies, will be in the runoff in 69 constituencies.

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Constitiuency Map with second placers

So, can someone count these?

LREM-Right: 273
LREM-Left: 134
LREM-Far right: 99
Left-Right: 20
PS-FN: 6
Right-FN: 4
PS-FI: 2
FI-FN: 1
LREM-LR-FN: 1

I think all EELV candidates were eliminated in the first round, which has got to be apocalyptic for the party. Any counter-examples?

In Doubs, 2nd, the EELV candidate is leading (no LREM candidate against him)

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A first runoff with one candidate, in the Aveyron 2nd the LR candidate drops out. The LREM candidate is the only one to stand Sunday.

"We have to do a lucid analysis, the constituency is historically left. In addition, it is impossible to close the gap. We must listen to the popular will and withdraw "

(results in the first round: LREM 38,72%, LR 20,18%)

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NKM fainted after being assaulted in a Paris market.

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And share of the vote with the different runoffs

LREM: 58%
Right: 42%

LREM: 60%
FN: 40%

LREM: 59%
Left: 41%

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Harris interactive projection

LREM/MoDem: 440-470
LR and allies: 60-80
PS and allies: 22-35
FI/PCF: 14-25
FN/far-right: 1-6
Others: 3-7

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My prediction, based on the results of the first round

LREM/MoDem: 453 (LREM 397, MoDem 56)
Right: 76 (LR 61, UDI 11, DVD 4)
Left: 26 (PS 12, PRG 2, EELV 1, DVG 11)
Radical Left: 12 (FI 6, PCF 6)
Far-right: 3 (FN 2, Ligue du Sud 1)
Others: 7

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No, Hérault 6th with Ménard. But I think that Hérault 6th and Pas-de-Calais 12th with Bilde are undecided. Just maybe FN has a better chance with Ménard with the local implantation of her husband and maybe some good transfers of votes from LR to FN.

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Yes, but when FN share of the vote went down 6 points in Pas-de-Calais 12th from the first round of the presidential election to the first round of legislative election, it went up 2 points in Hérault, 6th.

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First results in French overseas collectivities in the Atlantic. No major surprise, mostly some DVG elected, 2 LREM (in Guyana and Guadeloupe). In Saint-Pierre-et-Miquelon the member of the government Girardin survives after a difficult first round, she is reelected with 52%.

Turnout is up, around 5-6 points, in Saint-Pierre-et-Miquelon it is up 16 points (75% turnout)

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Ipsos final turnout estimate: 43%. European election level.

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There are "some surprises" TF1 and France 2 say.

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Major surprise indeed.

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Elabe has LREM/MoDem 395-425