2017 French Presidential Election

[Tirnam]

Well ...

Odoxa poll, for Le Point, France 2

Macron: 26% (-0,5 since March, 19)
Le Pen: 25% (-1)
Fillon: 17% (-2)
Mélenchon: 16% (+5.5)
Hamon: 8% (-4.5)

Second round: Macron 59% (-5), Le Pen 41%

[Tirnam]

Why is it considered "realistic" for a pollster to ask a question about a LePen-Fillon runoff but not about a LePen-Melenchon runoff???

Sometimes Fillon is still within the margin of error to be in a runoff (for OpinionWay for example). But in this Odoxa poll he is not, and there is no question about a Fillon-Le Pen runoff.

[Tirnam]

Royal still ran a better campaign than Hamon. Like Hamon she didn't had the support of the party but at least she had succeeded in galvanizing a part of the electorate.

Macron met with Estrosi today (President of PACA region), a "republican welcome to a candidate" but Fillon did not like it.
Estrosi was booed yesterday in a Fillon's rally (Fillon did nothing to stop it), and Fillon expects the same booing against Estrosi in Nice (Estrosi's city) in two weeks ("It will be tough for him").

[Tirnam]

Tracking polls

OpinionWay
Le Pen: 25% (+1)
Macron: 24% (=)
Fillon: 19% (=)
Mélenchon: 15% (=)
Hamon: 11% (=)

Second round: Macron 63% (=), Le Pen 37%

Ifop
Macron: 26% (=)
Le Pen: 25.5% (+0.5)
Fillon: 17% (-0.5, all time low in this poll)
Mélenchon: 15% (=)
Hamon: 10% (=)

Second round: Macron 60% (=), Le Pen 40%

Also, everybody speaks this year about high uncertainty of the voters and possibly a record high abstention.
Ifop tonight - Turnout: 66%, Certainty of the vote: 70%
Ifop, early April 2012 - Turnout: 68%, Certainty of the vote: 72%

[Tirnam]

Poll Ipsos for Cévipof and Le Monde
Sample: 9,460

Macron: 25% (-1, since mid-March)
Le Pen: 25% (-2)
Fillon: 17.5% (=)
Mélenchon: 15% (+3.5)
Hamon: 10% (-2.5)

Second round: Macron 61% (=), Le Pen 39%

Certainty of voting: 66% (=), highest for En Marche's supporters (79%)
Certainty of the vote: 64% (+5), Le Pen: 82%, Fillon: 75%, Macron 61%, Mélenchon 60%, Hamon 52%

For popularity
Macron still the most liked (44% dislike, 30% moderate, 25% like)
Mélenchon just behind (47% dislike, 29% moderate, 23% like)
Fillon still the most disliked (67% dislike, 16% moderate, 16% like)

And political parties, likelihood of voting
En Marche: 24% likely, 27% moderately likely, 45% not likely
LR: 22% likely, 18% moderately likely, 55% not likely
PS: 20% likely, 22% moderately likely, 55% not likely
FN: 23% likely, 11% moderately likely, 62% not likely


I think it's hard to find any reason to Fillon to re-bounce now. Unless a major surprise in the next 19 days.

[Tirnam]

Tracking polls

OpinionWay
Le Pen: 26% (+1)
Macron: 24% (=)
Fillon: 20% (+1)
Mélenchon: 15% (=)
Hamon: 10% (-1)

Second round: Macron 61% (-2), Le Pen 39%

Ifop
Macron: 25% (-1)
Le Pen: 25% (-0.5)
Fillon: 17.5 (+0.5)
Mélenchon: 15.5% (+0.5)
Hamon: 10% (=)

Second round: Macron 60.5% (+0.5), Le Pen 39.5%

[Tirnam]

I do. Too many people, so not it's almost impossible to anyone to be remember

Nevertheless among the main candidates, well I think that Macron is doing a very good job, Mélenchon and Hamon are quite good, Le Pen I would say neutral, Fillon totally absent for 30-40 minutes, looks sad, then an arrogant attack against Dupont-Aignan.

Among minor candidates, well Dupont-Aignan is the most credible but Poutou is cool. He made some attacks against "corrupted politicians who will recognize themselves in the room" maybe the part about moralization of public life will be interesting.

[Tirnam]

Sadly I can't stop laughing at every answer he gives beginning by "Fellow citizens"

[Tirnam]

I am watching but I don't understand anything. I wish to understand what Arthaud and Poutou were talking about .

They basically say that the problem to everything is Big Business (even to terrorism)
But it was interesting to see them "defend" the EU (the only ones with Macron and maybe Hamon) because obviously the problem is Big Business.

[Tirnam]

Haha. Well Poutou did his job about moralization of public life.

[Tirnam]

"Since January, it's the feast, Fillon, he is in front of me, the more we search, the more we feel the corruption, the cheating. And he is the guy who explain to us that austerity is necessary"

Le Pen, who refused to be heard by police because of her parliamentary immunity
"We, we don't have a worker immunity"

[Tirnam]

Poutou to Fillon: "You are less concerned about debt when it comes to lining your pockets"
Fillon: "Je vais vous foutre un procès" (I don't know exactly how to translate that, maybe "I'll f--king sue you" ?)

So the debate is over (Almost 4 hours...).
Among the main candidates, I would say that Macron has won, he wasn't attacked by Fillon or Le Pen, strange. Mélenchon and Hamon were good, but no more. I think that Fillon and Le Pen lost, Fillon attacked by everyone (and very hard by Poutou of course), Le Pen was very aggressive.

For the minor candidates: Dupont-Aignan the more credible, maybe he could gain some votes from Fillon. Poutou was the best to animate the debate. For the others nothing will change.

[Tirnam]

Polls

OpinionWay
Le Pen: 26% (=)
Macron: 24% (=)
Fillon: 20% (=)
Mélenchon: 15% (=)
Hamon: 10% (=)

Second round: Macron 60%, Le Pen 40%

Ifop
Le Pen: 25% (=)
Macron: 24.5% (-0.5)
Fillon: 18% (+0.5)
Mélenchon: 16% (+0.5)
Hamon: 9.5% (-0.5)

Second round: Macron 59.5% (-1), Le Pen 40.5%

Elabe, after the debate
Macron: 23.5% (-2)
Le Pen: 23.5% (-0.5)
Fillon: 19% (+1)
Mélenchon: 17% (+2)
Hamon: 9% (-1)

Second round: Macron 62%, Le Pen 38%

A 4 horses race?
The dynamic around Macron worries me a bit.

[Tirnam]

Hamon 68%
Macron 67%
Arthaud 66%
Mélenchon 64%
Poutou 63%
Cheminade 60%
Dupont-Aignan 57%
Fillon 55%
Le Pen 44%

Poll this morning Harris Interactive for France Télévisions
Around a 5,000 sample, 2,000 of them post debate

Macron: 25% (-1, last poll March 22)
Le Pen: 24% (-1)
Fillon: 18% (=)
Mélenchon: 17% (+3.5)
Hamon: 9% (-3.5)

Second round: Macron 62%, Le Pen 38%

[Tirnam]

Some reactions after the US strike on Syria

-Macron said yesterday, before the strike, that he was in favor of a military operation under the UN
-Le Pen is surprised by Trump's decision to "become the policeman of the world"
-Fillon "understands" the American strike but warns about a confrontation West-Russia
-Hamon: Assad is the only responsible for the strike
-Mélenchon: no reaction yet after the strike, he said yesterday that the crime must be punished.

[Tirnam]

Tracking polls

OpinonWay
Le Pen: 25% (=)
Macron: 24% (=)
Fillon: 20% (=)
Mélenchon: 16% (=)
Hamon: 10% (=)

Second round: Macron 62% (+2), Le Pen 38%

Ifop
Le Pen: 24.5% (=)
Macron: 23.5% (-0.5)
Fillon:  18.5% (=)
Mélenchon: 17% (+0.5)
Hamon: 9%

Second round: Macron 59%, Le Pen 41%

[Tirnam]

For the first time ? She's leading for the first round since 3 years.

Poll BVA

Macron: 23% (-2)
Le Pen: 23% (-1)
Fillon: 19% (=)
Mélenchon: 19% (+4)
Hamon: 8.5% (-3)

Second round: Macron 61% (+1), Le Pen 39%

[Tirnam]

The dynamics of the race are ... interesting to say the least. You may rejoice if you support Mélenchon, worry if you support Macron.

But at his hour Mélenchon is not near to top Macron for the second round. Maybe it would change in a week, maybe not.

For example yesterday Macron had a 2 hours prime-time interview, he attracted a record TV rating for the show, according to a flash poll he convinced 47% of the people (before him the best score was for Le Pen at 41%), 51% see him as a good president (before him the best score was 38% for Le Pen), maybe this show will have an impact in the next days in the dynamics for Macron (or not).

[Tirnam]

Yesterday, Fillon compared himself to Vercingetorix, winner of battle of Gergovia (52 BC) against Julius Caesar "the frontrunner in the polls".

The downside of this is that he did not say that ultimately Julius Caesar won the second round in Alesia.

[Tirnam]

Poll Kantar-Sofres for Le Figaro / LCI
First poll to show Mélenchon ahead of Fillon

Macron: 24% (-2 since March, 17)
Le Pen: 24% (-2)
Mélenchon: 18% (+6)
Fillon: 17% (=)
Hamon: 9% (-3)

Second round

Macron 61% - Le Pen 39%
Macron 66% - Fillon 34%
Macron 53% - Mélenchon 47%
Fillon 55% - Le Pen 45%
Mélenchon 57% - Le Pen 43%

[Tirnam]

I think that polls seem to stabilize:
- Harris Interactive (March, 3-5): Macron 25%, Le Pen 24%, Fillon 18%, Mélenchon 17%
- Odoxa (March, 5): Macron 23.5%, Le Pen 23%, Fillon 18.5%, Mélenchon 18%
- Kantar-Sofres (March, 5-7) : Macron 24%, Le Pen 24%, Mélenchon 18%, Fillon: 17%

Just a few variations but basically similar results (or at least inside the margin of error)
We will see tomorrow if I'm wrong.

[Tirnam]

Poll Kantar-Sofres for Le Figaro / LCI
First poll to show Mélenchon ahead of Fillon

Macron: 24% (-2 since March, 17)
Le Pen: 24% (-2)
Mélenchon: 18% (+6)
Fillon: 17% (=)
Hamon: 9% (-3)

Second round

Macron 61% - Le Pen 39%
Macron 66% - Fillon 34%
Macron 53% - Mélenchon 47%
Fillon 55% - Le Pen 45%
Mélenchon 57% - Le Pen 43%

I believe there was a poll that had Fillon at 15.5% and Mélenchon at 19% so it's not the first. But it's probably the first serious poll that has Mélenchon ahead because the other one probably was a junk poll.

It wasn't a poll done by a reliable pollster.

In the continuing series "The FN has changed but not so much" Le Pen said today that "France wasn't responsible for the Vel d'Hiv roundup" in which 13,152 jews were arrested by French police, on the order of French legal government in Vichy, in 1942 before being sent to Auschwitz.

[Tirnam]

My feeling of a stabilization of the race (for now) seems to be confirm by this poll done during the weekend, but it's OpinionWay, which was always a little bit off compared with other polls.

Médipart: Fillon lied again, his wife began to work with him in the National Assembly in 1982, not in 1986 as he claimed (he first said he hired her in 1998).

[Tirnam]

Tracking polls

OpinionWay
Le Pen: 24% (=)
Macron: 23% (=)
Fillon: 19% (=)
Mélenchon: 18% (=)
Hamon: 8% (-1)

Second round
Macron 63% (+1), Le Pen 37%

Ifop
Le Pen: 24% (=)
Macron: 23% (=)
Fillon: 19% (+0.5)
Mélenchon: 18.5% (+0.5)
Hamon: 8.5% (-0.5)

Second round
Macron 58.5% (+0.5), Le Pen 41.5%

Yes, it seems to stabilize. Ifop maybe a little off for the second round.

Update with a new poll
Ipsos, for France Télévisions

Macron: 24% (=, since March 27)
Le Pen: 24% (-1)
Mélenchon: 18.5% (+4.5)
Fillon: 18% (=)
Hamon: 8% (-4)

Second round
Macron 62% (=), Le Pen 38%

[Tirnam]

He is just at 20% in two polls, he gained 1 point in some polls, he gained nothing in other polls. Not a clear momentum for him

For Elabe poll:
-Le Pen has lost 5.5 points since February
Second round
Macron wins against Le Pen (65-35), Fillon (65-35), Mélenchon (54-46)
Le Pen loses against Fillon (58-42), Mélenchon (63-37)
Mélenchon wins against Fillon (59-41)

Ifop
Le Pen: 23.5% (=)
Macron: 22.5% (=)
Mélenchon: 19% (+0.5)
Fillon: 19% (=)
Hamon: 8.5% (=)

Second round
Macron 58.5%, Le Pen 41.5%