May Primaries Coverage Thread

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Going to just combine a few weeks here as I don't expect much discussion at this point.

May 7: Indiana
May 14: MD/NE/WV
May 21: Oregon (Beauty Contest for Rs) + KY
May 22: Idaho Caucus (D)
May 25: Oregon State Convention (R)

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Tonight, polls closing by 7 ET: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/05/07/us/elections/results-indiana-republican-presidential-primary.html

D side is not contested

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

32% for Haley in Hamilton, 34% in Bartholomew.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Wait so what's the deal with Oregon? Is it not a legit primary?

Delegates are awarded by the state convention

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

An easy victory for Trump, although Haley is over 30% in 4 counties.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Haley getting 20% of the early vote in rural counties. Perhaps she ends up a little bit lower than she did in PA, maybe in low double digits. Still a lot of uncertainty.

This aged poorly lol

Did Haley really do better in Indiana than she did in California and Texas? That is not something that was ever on my bingo card.

Yep!

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Nikki Haley to meet with donors after surprising showings in GOP primaries: report

Nikki Haley will meet with donors next week after a series of surprisingly strong showings in Republican primaries, a source said in a new report.

A person close to the former South Carolina governor said Thursday that Haley will attend a retreat Monday and Tuesday to thank about 100 of her biggest campaign donors, reported the Wall Street Journal.

Haley is not expected to discuss her political future or encourage them to contribute to other candidates, the report notes.

“Sometimes it takes more than one run to secure the nomination – look at John McCain and Mitt Romney,” said GOP fundraiser and strategist Eric Tanenblatt, who plans to attend the retreat. “She created something of a movement and built a coalition of Republicans and independents and even some conservative Democrats.”

https://www.rawstory.com/nikki-haley-trump-2668212455/

She's probably angling a 2028 run as these numbers clearly show an appetite for her in the GOP electorate. The problem though is that 2028 will be a free for all as Trump won't be running.

This is plausible, although I also wonder if she's preparing for a possible return to the race if Trump is convicted in New York.

The likeliest sentence in that case is some form of probation. Aside from maybe the media getting to cover Trump doing community service for a couple weekends, that likely won't have any material impact on the race. If you care about the conviction in and of itself, you weren't voting for Trump anyway.

Even if Trump is sent to prison, there's the historical precedent of Eugene Debs still staying in the race, and he has hundreds of delegates in excess of the threshold to secure the nomination. The only way to deny him the nomination at this stage would be to have the convention vote to unbound the delegates, and even that would just get it to a free-for-all. There's no guarantee Haley would end up as the nominee out of that process, and it might even still nominate Trump.

Yes, in theory, Haley could take a third party ballot line, but it's unclear which one she could have. 4 Such lines (We the People, Natural Law, American Independent, and Delaware Independent) have already pledged their support to RFK. Another 2 (Unity and Green Mountain) have already pledged their support to Cornel West. Another 4 (Prohibition, Constitution, American Solidarity, and Socialist Liberation) have already announced another nominee. Among those with ballot access, that leaves the Libertarians, the Greens, Legal Marijuana Now, Peace and Freedom, Unity, Alliance, Approval Voting, United Kansas, and Working Families. Several of these have very limited ballot access, and none is an obvious fit for Haley. It's also significantly too late for a bona fide independent run to work.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Really strong performances for both nominees tonight

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

KY Dem Primary actually a little competitive

Joseph R. Biden Jr.*incumbent
1,501   +69.3%69.3%   
No delegates—
Uncommitted
426   +19.7%19.7   
No delegates—
Dean Phillips
123   +5.7%5.7   
No delegates—
Marianne Williamson
115   +5.3%5.3   
No delegates

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Donald J. Trump
8,586   +84.2%84.2%   
No delegates—
Nikki Haley
738   +7.2%7.2   
No delegates—
Uncommitted
380   +3.7%3.7   
No delegates—
Ron DeSantis
259   +2.5%2.5   
No delegates—
Chris Christie
126   +1.2%1.2   
No delegates—
Vivek Ramaswamy
65   +0.6%0.6   
No delegates—
Ryan Binkley
39   +0.4%0.4   
No delegates—
Total reported
10,193

Joseph R. Biden Jr.*incumbent
9,630   +82.8%82.8%   
No delegates—
Uncommitted
1,290   +11.1%11.1   
No delegates—
Marianne Williamson
408   +3.5%3.5   
No delegates—
Dean Phillips
305   +2.6%2.6   
No delegates—
Total reported
11,633

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Trump at just 69% in Lexington.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Trump and Biden have won in KY, though Uncommitted Ds may walk away with some delegates.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

What time do polls close in Oregon ET? 11?

Yes

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

KY D delegate allocation is 37-7 so far with some still outstanding.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Well the first vote in Oregon goes to Biden....

Joseph R. Biden Jr.*incumbent
1   +100%100%   
No delegates—
Marianne Williamson
0   +0%0   
No delegates—
Total Write-ins
0   +0%0   
No delegates—
Total reported
1   

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Biden has won the Oregon Primary

Joseph R. Biden Jr.*incumbent
13,056   +91%91%   
No delegates—
Marianne Williamson
782   +5%5   
No delegates—
Total Write-ins
519   +4%4   
No delegates—
Total reported
14,357   

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Getting a large pro-hamas population out of Lake County, OR.

Biden looks likely to walk away with all delegates in the state though. Much stronger than KY.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

KY D delegate allocation is 37-7 so far with some still outstanding.

43-8 now

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Nobody's talking about the big Idaho Democratic caucuses tonight? For those interested Biden got 95% of the 2,412 votes cast.

Oh, interesting. Nice to see a state where everyone opposes Hamas (except for 3 small counties lol)

I believe that just leaves the OR R convention on the 25th for this thread to cover.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Trump received the 31 delegates issued by the OR convention for anyone who cares

Going to lock this now that May is over. We'll use a fresh thread for the finale on June 4.