State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

So, Republicans won 3 Specials to the Democrats 2 tonight. The 🌊 is slowing a bit, it seems.

Next week:

Arkansas
See also: Arkansas state legislative special elections, 2018
[show]☐ Arkansas State Senate District 16   
[show]☐ Arkansas State Senate District 29   
[show]☐ Arkansas House of Representatives District 83

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Democrats don't really have the power to do anything with Felder. Since he's a registered democrat, they can't prevent him from running on the democratic ticket, sure they could primary him, but they can't legally keep him from running for the nomination to my knowledge. Now, if he sat with the Democrats nominally and just voted against the line often, they could kick him out of the caucus - but since he's not even part of the caucus in the first place, that punishment line is not available. And correct me if I'm wrong, but since he sits with the Republicans, I believe the Republicans are the ones deciding his committee assignments, so Democrats don't have power to take away those either.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Now, on an entirely different matter, there are several elections today.

Texas House 13 Runoff (8 ET): https://enrpages.sos.state.tx.us/public/may22_326_race8.htm (This is technically the runoff for the general election and not the special election, but since the candidates in both runoffs are identical, it is expected that the losing candidate in tonight's runoff will withdraw from the special election, allowing this election to effectively substitute for the special election runoff.)

Arkansas State Senate 16, State Senate 29, State Senate 8 R Primary (8:30 ET) : http://results.enr.clarityelections.com/AR/74831/Web02-state.198804/#/c/C_4 (In district 16, Davis is the Republican and Gallegos is the Democrat. In District 29, Hill is the Republican and McNeely is the Democrat.)

(The election for Arkansas HoR district 83 is a republican running unopposed)

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Obvious disclaimers, but the Dem is leading in early returns in AR-16!!!

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

WULFRIC PROJECTION:

Special Election for State Senate District 29 (Vote For 1)
Add this race to my races
Contest Details
Areas Reporting: 10 %
Ricky Hill (R) 78.11% 646
Steven McNeely (D) 21.89% 181
827

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Obvious disclaimers, but the Dem is leading in early returns in AR-16!!!

Source?!?!?!

If you would bother to read through today's posts on the thread, you would know my sources.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

The earlier vote appears to have been a reporting error on the part of the SOS, lmao. This race is over:

Areas Reporting: 14 %
Breanne Davis (R) 76.95% 1,255
Teresa N. Gallegos (D) 23.05% 376
1,631


Congrats to Republicans on winning both of these elections.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

WULFRIC PROJECTION:

Texas House 13 Runoff   
Ben Leman (R) 7,287   
Jill Wolfskill (R)   5,482
71/80 in

Still waiting on AR State Sen. 8 R Primary.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Tonight's final race can be called:

Special Primary Election for State Senate District 8 (Vote For 1)
Add this race to my races
Contest Details
Areas Reporting: 81 %
REP REP   Denny Altes 34.71% 3,253
REP REP   Frank Glidewell 65.29% 6,118
9,371

That concludes the special elections for this month.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Schedule for June:

June 4:

Connecticut
See also: Connecticut state legislative special elections, 2018
[show]☐ Connecticut House of Representatives District 4

June 5:

CA Assembly 39 RUNOFF (D v. R)
CA Assembly 45 RUNOFF (D v. R)
CA Senate 32 JUNGLE

Missouri
See also: Missouri state legislative special elections, 2018
[show]☐ Missouri State Senate District 17   

June 12:

Wisconsin
See also: Wisconsin state legislative special elections, 2018
[show]☐ Wisconsin State Senate District 1   
[show]☐ Wisconsin State Assembly District 42   

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Another tidbit about this seat is that Jason Kander carried it, and Chris Koster may have as well.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Are there even any specials today? I thought only next week...

Yeah, I go by Ballotpedia's list, and there's nothing scheduled tonight. Nice break from doing projections before the long list of stuff next week.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Not surprised that this was a D hold, this is part of Bennie Thompson's seat.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Today there will be one election - Connecticut State House District 4. Polls close at 8 EST. Not seeing a results page just yet.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Polls have closed in the Connecticut house district 4 special election. Post any results you find.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

If a legislator has lost the confidence of their constituents based on a vote or votes that they cast, I see little reason not to recall them.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

In 2016, the Dems held this seat by 87 percent to 13 percent. Tonight, the two Dems outpolled the republican by 94 percent to 5 percent. That's a 15 point swing (+74 to +89) to the Democrats.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Lol it was 700 votes...

This is Limospeak for: Well, this race does validate a democratic wave, but I can't say that. It conflicts with my trollish behavior. But no worries, my trolling can continue tomorrow when Republicans sweep the specials in California and Missouri.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Good Morning! Today this thread will be covering five elections!

8 ET:
MO Senate 17: http://enr.sos.mo.gov (click Submit to see the results)

11 ET:

CA Assembly 39 RUNOFF: https://vote.sos.ca.gov/special/state-assembly/district/39
CA Assembly 45 RUNOFF: https://vote.sos.ca.gov/special/state-assembly/district/45
CA Senate 32 JUNGLE: https://vote.sos.ca.gov/special/state-senate/district/32
CA Senate 29 RECALL: https://vote.sos.ca.gov/recall/state-senate/district/29

Note on the recall: There is no runoff provision for recalls. If Newman is recalled, the replacement candidate with a plurality of votes wins, even if that plurality is less than a majority.

I would like to thank the states of California and Missouri for providing these results pages.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

WULFRIC PROJECTION:

STATE SENATOR DIST 17 UNEXPIRED TERM
Number of Precincts 61
Precincts Reporting 27
Vote For 1
KEVIN CORLEW (REP) 3,623 38.82%
LAUREN ARTHUR (DEM) 5,708 61.15%
WRITE IN 3 0.03%
Total Votes 9,334

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Humiliating loss for California Democrats incoming -->

Shall Josh Newman be recalled (removed) from the office of State Sentator, District 29?
Completed Precincts: 0 of 369
Vote Count   Percentage
Yes   21,128   62.1%
No   12,900   37.9%

Where are you seeing this? NYT isn't covering it and the SOS doesn't have anything up yet.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Way too early to say anything definitively yet, but first tea leaves from the Senate 32 Special Jungle:

   Bob J. Archuleta
(Party Preference: DEM)
116   
5.4%
Rudy Bermudez
(Party Preference: DEM)
91   
4.2%
Vanessa Delgado
(Party Preference: DEM)
295   
13.7%
John Paul Drayer
(Party Preference: DEM)
30   
1.4%
Darren Joseph Gendron
(Party Preference: DEM)
10   
0.5%
Tony Mendoza
(Party Preference: DEM)
237   
11.0%
Vivian Romero
(Party Preference: DEM)
118   
5.5%
Vicky Santana
(Party Preference: DEM)
140   
6.5%
Ali S. Taj
(Party Preference: DEM)
139   
6.5%
Ion Sarega
(Party Preference: REP)
284   
13.2%
Rita Topalian
(Party Preference: REP)
689   
32.1%

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

First tea leaves from the recall. Again, it's very early, so take these numbers with a heavy grain of salt.

Shall JOSH NEWMAN be recalled (removed) from the Office of State Senate District 29?   Yes - 12,900   37.9%   No - 21,128   62.1%

Candidates to Succeed Josh Newman as State Senator if he is Recalled

Candidate   Votes   Percent
Kevin Carr
(Party Preference: DEM)
2,424   
7.7%
Joseph Cho
(Party Preference: DEM)
6,158   
19.5%
Josh Ferguson
(Party Preference: DEM)
3,414   
10.8%
Ling Ling Chang
(Party Preference: REP)
11,266   
35.8%
George C. Shen
(Party Preference: REP)
1,639   
5.2%
Bruce Whitaker
(Party Preference: REP)
6,598   
20.9%

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

First numbers from the 45th assembly race. Again, extremely early:

Jesse Gabriel
(Party Preference: DEM)
60   
44.4%
Justin M. Clark
(Party Preference: REP)
75   
55.6%

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

With all precincts at least partially reporting, Dems easily held the 39th Assembly District:

Luz Maria Rivas
(Party Preference: DEM)
20,598   
69.8%
Ricardo Antonio Benitez
(Party Preference: REP)
8,926   
30.2%

Ditto in the 45th Assembly District:

Jesse Gabriel
(Party Preference: DEM)
28,721   
63.8%
Justin M. Clark
(Party Preference: REP)
16,279   
36.2%

In the 32nd Senate District, no one obtained a majority. A republican secured their place in the August Runoff. Democrats Vanessa Delgado and Tony Mendoza are in a tight race for second place, watch the late ballots.:

Bob J. Archuleta
(Party Preference: DEM)
9,534   
11.9%
Rudy Bermudez
(Party Preference: DEM)
3,570   
4.5%
Vanessa Delgado
(Party Preference: DEM)
13,050   
16.3%
John Paul Drayer
(Party Preference: DEM)
893   
1.1%
Darren Joseph Gendron
(Party Preference: DEM)
409   
0.5%
Tony Mendoza
(Party Preference: DEM)
11,600   
14.5%
Vivian Romero
(Party Preference: DEM)
3,504   
4.4%
Vicky Santana
(Party Preference: DEM)
5,256   
6.6%
Ali S. Taj
(Party Preference: DEM)
4,583   
5.7%
Ion Sarega
(Party Preference: REP)
7,413   
9.3%
Rita Topalian
(Party Preference: REP)
20,244   
25.3%

In Senate District 29, Josh Newman was recalled overwhelmingly:

Shall JOSH NEWMAN be recalled (removed) from the Office of State Senate District 29?   Yes - 55,539   59.5% No -   37,850   40.5%

As there is no runoff provision for recalls, Ling Ling Chang (R) has been elected to the seat.

Candidates to Succeed Josh Newman as State Senator if he is Recalled

Candidate   Votes   Percent
Kevin Carr
(Party Preference: DEM)
7,953   
8.9%
Joseph Cho
(Party Preference: DEM)
17,962   
20.1%
Josh Ferguson
(Party Preference: DEM)
10,690   
12.0%
Ling Ling Chang
(Party Preference: REP)
30,503   
34.2%
George C. Shen
(Party Preference: REP)
4,561   
5.1%
Bruce Whitaker
(Party Preference: REP)
17,514   
19.6%

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The next special elections are on June 12 in Wisconsin.