What will be 2018's "surprise" result(s)? (user search)
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
June 01, 2024, 01:59:55 PM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Congressional Elections (Moderators: Brittain33, GeorgiaModerate, Gass3268, Virginiá, Gracile)
  What will be 2018's "surprise" result(s)? (search mode)
Pages: [1]
Author Topic: What will be 2018's "surprise" result(s)?  (Read 1756 times)
Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon
Dwarven Dragon
Atlas Politician
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,931
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -0.52

P P P
« on: November 21, 2017, 08:41:12 PM »
« edited: November 21, 2017, 08:45:48 PM by Dwarven Dragon »
To the McCaskill fans, the surprise will be her losing by 7.

As for myself, Dems winning the governorship of South Dakota, Oklahoma, or South Carolina would be a shock. I have all those races out of Safe but only because I consider myself a failure if I have to change a Safe R or Safe D rating after my Google doc is launched.
Logged
Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon
Dwarven Dragon
Atlas Politician
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,931
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -0.52

P P P
« Reply #1 on: November 21, 2017, 08:43:55 PM »
Quote from: Virginia on November 21, 2017, 08:40:38 PM
Statistically speaking, the incumbent reelection rate for the party that doesn't control the White House is like > 95% in midterms. McCaskill winning reelection shouldn't be that surprising. In fact, until otherwise proven it should probably be assumed to happen.

FWIW, MO has broken that trend before: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_special_election_in_Missouri,_2002
Logged
Pages: [1]  
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.018 seconds with 11 queries.