$1.5 Trillion GOP Tax Cut Thread

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Moving Murkowski to Lean Support:

To Summarize the view of the Senate:

Solidly Opposed: The 45 Dem Senators who signed the tax reform demand letter

Likely Opposed:
Manchin, Donnelly, Heitkamp - they didn't sign the letter and have said they have an open mind regarding the legislation, but they are strong supporters of ObamaCare and I really don't think they'd vote to overturn the mandate - however, I can't rule out the silm possibility that if Republicans have 50 votes without them, one of them would vote yes anyway because "My vote wouldn't change the outcome and I want to show bipartisanship so I can get re-elected"

Lean Opposed:
Corker - deficit hawk - but will he actually have a spine? We'll see.

Paul - he voted against the framework, and his preferred amendments were rejected overwhelmingly. Politico has said in at least one article that he appears to be open to the final legislation, the addition of ObamaCare appears to  have been a ploy to get his vote, and party pressure is a powerful tool. But I still expect him to vote No because he voted No on the framework.

Collins - Appeared to indicate on 11/19 CNN interview that her support would depend on passage of Alexander-Murray and a separate bill she wrote with Senator Nelson, and keeping the top rate at 39.6%, instead of lowering it to 38.5%.

Lean Support:
Lankford - he's said he'll vote against it "if it increases the deficit too much" - but didn't define what too much meant. He's a reliable vote for leadership, so the odds are he gets to yes, but we'll see.

Johnson - Said he can't support it right now, but he also said he wants to get to Yes. Odds are he'll find a way to vote yes eventually.

Flake - Might want to show opposition to Trump, and has raised real doubts about the eventual affect of the bill, but also probably supports the intent of this bill, and he did vote for all versions of ObamaCare Repeal.

Murkowski - Has come out in support of mandate repeal, and she usually supports cutting Taxes. But she was a thorn in the side of Senate R's during the ObamaCare repeal debate, says she has come to no final decision on the plan, and is still promoting Alexander-Murray heavily.

Likely Support:
McCain - Voted against Skinny Repeal and opposed Graham-Cassidy, but he is a strong supporter of the tax cut portions of this bill, and his opposition to repeal was based more on the process of passage rather than the substance of the bill. I doubt mandate repeal alone would be a dealbreaker to him. But it's not impossible.

Safe Support: Other 44 GOP Senators


Overall: 51 AGAINST, 49 SUPPORT

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Of the "Lean Opposed", the one I'm most worried about is Corker FWIW.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Mondale is repeating his predictions before the Healthcare bill word for word. I take this as a very good sign.

I wish I could, but if Murkowski actually is a yes there's really no way it fails.

Oh, it'll probably pass the Senate. Doesn't mean that it is going to become law. The House and Senate versions are quite different and there's a pretty good chance this thing dies in conference because of the mandate and SALT.

Ryan will just ram through the Senate bill. There will be a few defections from the Lunatics Caucus, but not enough.

And honestly I don't think the Senate would care if Ryan inserted the property tax SALT deduction that's in the house bill. If this passes the Senate, it's over.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

So this article mentions Todd Young as a potential defector. Strange.: https://www.politico.com/story/2017/11/24/republicans-tax-reform-plan-deficit-cost-257604

----

To Summarize the view of the Senate:

Solidly Opposed: The 45 Dem Senators who signed the tax reform demand letter

Likely Opposed:
Manchin, Donnelly, Heitkamp - they didn't sign the letter and have said they have an open mind regarding the legislation, but they are strong supporters of ObamaCare and I really don't think they'd vote to overturn the mandate - however, I can't rule out the silm possibility that if Republicans have 50 votes without them, one of them would vote yes anyway because "My vote wouldn't change the outcome and I want to show bipartisanship so I can get re-elected"

Lean Opposed:
Corker - deficit hawk - but will he actually have a spine? We'll see.

Paul - he voted against the framework, and his preferred amendments were rejected overwhelmingly. Politico has said in at least one article that he appears to be open to the final legislation, the addition of ObamaCare appears to  have been a ploy to get his vote, and party pressure is a powerful tool. But I still expect him to vote No because he voted No on the framework.

Collins - Appeared to indicate on 11/19 CNN interview that her support would depend on passage of Alexander-Murray and a separate bill she wrote with Senator Nelson, and keeping the top rate at 39.6%, instead of lowering it to 38.5%.

Lean Support:
Lankford - he's said he'll vote against it "if it increases the deficit too much" - but didn't define what too much meant. He's a reliable vote for leadership, so the odds are he gets to yes, but we'll see.

Johnson - Said he can't support it right now, but he also said he wants to get to Yes. Odds are he'll find a way to vote yes eventually.

Flake - Might want to show opposition to Trump, and has raised real doubts about the eventual affect of the bill, but also probably supports the intent of this bill, and he did vote for all versions of ObamaCare Repeal.

Murkowski - Has come out in support of mandate repeal, and she usually supports cutting Taxes. But she was a thorn in the side of Senate R's during the ObamaCare repeal debate, says she has come to no final decision on the plan, and is still promoting Alexander-Murray heavily.

Likely Support:
McCain - Voted against Skinny Repeal and opposed Graham-Cassidy, but he is a strong supporter of the tax cut portions of this bill, and his opposition to repeal was based more on the process of passage rather than the substance of the bill. I doubt mandate repeal alone would be a dealbreaker to him. But it's not impossible.

Young - Apparently has been raising deficit-related concerns about the bill, but I highly doubt he actually has a backbone.

Safe Support: Other 43 GOP Senators


Overall: 51 AGAINST, 49 SUPPORT

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Graham is confident that the Senate will pass its bill: https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.cnn.com/cnn/2017/11/26/politics/graham-tax-reform-sotu-cnntv/index.html#ampshare=http://www.cnn.com/2017/11/26/politics/graham-tax-reform-sotu-cnntv/index.html

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

First Hurdle for Senate Tax Bill will be Committee Vote on Tuesday. Johnson and Corker are on the committee and if they vote no along with all Dems, bill fails in committee.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Daines is a no.

Do you have a source for this?

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Update: McConnell can count on just 41 votes for tax reform. Moran moves from Safe Support to Lean Support, Daines moves from Safe Support all the way to Lean Opposed, Lankford moves from Lean Support to Toss-Up. However, Paul has apparently rejected his previous stance against the Framework and is now a likely vote for the bill.
----

To Summarize the view of the Senate:

Solidly Opposed: The 45 Dem Senators who signed the tax reform demand letter

Likely Opposed:
Manchin, Donnelly, Heitkamp - they didn't sign the letter and have said they have an open mind regarding the legislation, but they are strong supporters of ObamaCare and I really don't think they'd vote to overturn the mandate - however, I can't rule out the silm possibility that if Republicans have 50 votes without them, one of them would vote yes anyway because "My vote wouldn't change the outcome and I want to show bipartisanship so I can get re-elected"

Lean Opposed:
Corker - Deficit hawk - but will he actually have a spine? We'll see.

Collins - Appeared to indicate on 11/19 CNN interview that her support would depend on passage of Alexander-Murray and a separate bill she wrote with Senator Nelson, and keeping the top rate at 39.6%, instead of lowering it to 38.5%.

Daines - Bloomberg and Fox Business have stated that a Daines staff member says he is a no, while CNN and the Washington Post have stated that Daines has raised concerns about certain corporate provisions in the bill without explicitly stating he has threatened to vote no. The guy is generally a backbencher and is thus probably not completely out of reach for McConnell, but it appears his opposition is serious.

Toss-Up:
Lankford - He's said he'll vote against it "if it increases the deficit too much" - but didn't define what too much meant.  He's also called for a trigger provision that would raise tax rates in times of insufficent economic growth, and has explicitly refused to endorse the bill as written, although he has yet to explicitly oppose the bill and is generally a reliable vote for leadership.

Lean Support:
Johnson - Said he can't support it right now, but he also said he wants to get to Yes. Odds are he'll find a way to vote yes eventually.

Flake - Might want to show opposition to Trump, and has raised real doubts about the eventual affect of the bill, but also probably supports the intent of this bill, and he did vote for all versions of ObamaCare Repeal.

Murkowski - Has come out in support of mandate repeal, and she usually supports cutting Taxes. But she was a thorn in the side of Senate R's during the ObamaCare repeal debate, says she has come to no final decision on the plan, and is still promoting Alexander-Murray heavily.

Moran - Sources from Politico to the Washington Post to CNN have stated that Moran has concerns about the bill's repeal of the individual mandate, and he was a no vote on certain versions of health care reform. But he has a record of generally being a reliable vote for leadership, is a solid conservative, and voted for Skinny Repeal. As such, he will likelier than not be able to be whipped into submission.

Likely Support:
McCain - Voted against Skinny Repeal and opposed Graham-Cassidy, but he is a strong supporter of the tax cut portions of this bill, and his opposition to repeal was based more on the process of passage rather than the substance of the bill. I doubt mandate repeal alone would be a dealbreaker to him. But it's not impossible.

Young - Apparently has been raising deficit-related concerns about the bill, but I highly doubt he actually has a backbone.

Paul - Despite his previous stance against the framework, Paul "supports the bill as it stands right now", as reported by Bloomberg News. Still keep an eye on him, as the bill may be amended on the senate floor and it's not impossible that it could be amended in such a way that it changes his stance.

Safe Support: Other 41 GOP Senators


Overall: 51 AGAINST, 49 SUPPORT

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Yeah, Johnson stays in my support column until he actually shows he has guts.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

While you can never be sure that they won't pass the bill, this does look a lot like Health Care: The number of guaranteed Yes Votes in the low 40s, Two Senators that look very tough to get (Collins and Murkowski for Health Care, Collins and Daines for this), and a host of wildcards that McConnell has to sweep. In Health Care, McConnell tried very hard and wrote multiple drafts, but couldn't sweep the wildcards. It's hard to see why this will be any different.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

95% of what I've heard about McCain suggests they believe they have his vote. The 5% is a thing I heard on CNN today, something about Republicans hoping they have 50 votes without his vote so that if he goes over to No at the last minute, it won't matter. Maybe that means something, or maybe they're just trying to not be too optimistic about him, but in any case, that's the only "negative" thing I've heard about McCain's stance.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Senate Budget Committee meets at 2:30 ET today to vote on the bill. Will be televised on C-SPAN 3.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Bill passes committee along party lines, 12-11. Johnson is a cuck. Next step is Senate Floor Action.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Are we expecting floor vote on passage tomorrow or Thursday?

Floor Proceedings will begin later today or tomorrow, but since the bill will be subject to Amendment on the floor, the earliest a final vote could happen is Late Thursday, and it could easily be dragged into Friday.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Senate adjourned for the night. Motion to Proceed is apparently tomorrow, amendment votes to follow

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

The non-partisan Joint Congressional Committee on Taxation will release a report on the bill potentially as soon as tomorrow evening. Unlike the CBO, it will consider how much enonomic growth is likely to result from the bill and how this will affect the Bill's effect on the deficit.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Based on the varying actions and statements, a ton of movement today. Manchin, Donnelly, and Heitkamp move from Likely Opposed to Safe Opposed. Corker moves from Lean Opposed to Toss-Up. Johnson moves from Lean Support to Safe Support. I'm sorry I ever believed that cuck would even think about opposing this. Kennedy moves from Safe Support to Lean Support.

To Summarize the view of the Senate:

Solidly Opposed: All 48 Dems

Likely Opposed: N/A

Lean Opposed:
Collins - Appeared to indicate on 11/19 CNN interview that her support would depend on passage of Alexander-Murray and a separate bill she wrote with Senator Nelson, and keeping the top rate at 39.6%, instead of lowering it to 38.5%.

Daines - Bloomberg and Fox Business have stated that a Daines staff member says he is a no, while CNN and the Washington Post have stated that Daines has raised concerns about certain corporate provisions in the bill without explicitly stating he has threatened to vote no. The guy is generally a backbencher and is thus probably not completely out of reach for McConnell, but it appears his opposition is serious.

Toss-Up:
Lankford - He's said he'll vote against it "if it increases the deficit too much" - but didn't define what too much meant.  He's also called for a trigger provision that would raise tax rates in times of insufficent economic growth, and has explicitly refused to endorse the bill as written, although he has yet to explicitly oppose the bill and is generally a reliable vote for leadership.

Corker - Voted Yes in committee, but has been clear that his support on final passage will depend on the inclusion of a trigger provision in the bill. It is unclear if such a provision will be in the final version of the bill.

Lean Support:
Flake - Might want to show opposition to Trump, and has raised real doubts about the eventual affect of the bill, but also probably supports the intent of this bill, and he did vote for all versions of ObamaCare Repeal.

Murkowski - Has come out in support of mandate repeal, and she usually supports cutting Taxes. But she was a thorn in the side of Senate R's during the ObamaCare repeal debate, says she has come to no final decision on the plan, and is still promoting Alexander-Murray heavily.

Moran - Sources from Politico to the Washington Post to CNN have stated that Moran has concerns about the bill's repeal of the individual mandate, and he was a no vote on certain versions of health care reform. But he has a record of generally being a reliable vote for leadership, is a solid conservative, and voted for Skinny Repeal. As such, he will likelier than not be able to be whipped into submission.

Kennedy - Has threatened to vote against the bill if McConnell decides to include a Trigger provision, which McConnell may do to please Lankford and Corker.

Likely Support:
McCain - Voted against Skinny Repeal and opposed Graham-Cassidy, but he is a strong supporter of the tax cut portions of this bill, and his opposition to repeal was based more on the process of passage rather than the substance of the bill. I doubt mandate repeal alone would be a dealbreaker to him. But it's not impossible.

Young - Apparently has been raising deficit-related concerns about the bill, but I highly doubt he actually has a backbone.

Paul - Despite his previous stance against the framework, Paul "supports the bill as it stands right now", as reported by Bloomberg News. Still keep an eye on him, as the bill may be amended on the senate floor and it's not impossible that it could be amended in such a way that it changes his stance.

Safe Support: Other 41 GOP Senators


Overall: 50 AGAINST, 48 SUPPORT, 2 TOSS-UP

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

And the monumentally catastrophic change in the tax code for graduate students is still in there, correct?

Of course

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Did anyone seriously believe that Ron Johnson of all people would vote no? lol

Voting it out of committee doesn't necessarily mean he'll vote yes on the final bill. McCain voted for the MTP on Obamacare repeal and then switched his vote to kill it. Who knows how the last-minute negotiations and amendments to this thing will end up.

Don't kid yourself. Johnson is and always was a safe yes vote.

Yep. Johnson didn't care about Wisconsin for one second during his first term and still won re-election, so why should he care now? It's really sad that the LameStream Media convinced me to give him a chance in a non-Safe Column, but at least he made his position crystal clear today.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Moving Murkowski to Safe Support, and based on reporting by Politico, moving Moran there as well.

To Summarize the view of the Senate:

Solidly Opposed: All 48 Dems

Likely Opposed: N/A

Lean Opposed:
Collins - Appeared to indicate on 11/19 CNN interview that her support would depend on passage of Alexander-Murray and a separate bill she wrote with Senator Nelson, and keeping the top rate at 39.6%, instead of lowering it to 38.5%.

Daines - Bloomberg and Fox Business have stated that a Daines staff member says he is a no, while CNN and the Washington Post have stated that Daines has raised concerns about certain corporate provisions in the bill without explicitly stating he has threatened to vote no. The guy is generally a backbencher and is thus probably not completely out of reach for McConnell, but it appears his opposition is serious.

Toss-Up:
Lankford - He's said he'll vote against it "if it increases the deficit too much" - but didn't define what too much meant.  He's also called for a trigger provision that would raise tax rates in times of insufficent economic growth, and has explicitly refused to endorse the bill as written, although he has yet to explicitly oppose the bill and is generally a reliable vote for leadership.

Corker - Voted Yes in committee, but has been clear that his support on final passage will depend on the inclusion of a trigger provision in the bill. It is unclear if such a provision will be in the final version of the bill.

Lean Support:
Flake - Might want to show opposition to Trump, and has raised real doubts about the eventual affect of the bill, but also probably supports the intent of this bill, and he did vote for all versions of ObamaCare Repeal.

Kennedy - Has threatened to vote against the bill if McConnell decides to include a Trigger provision, which McConnell may do to please Lankford and Corker.

Likely Support:
McCain - Voted against Skinny Repeal and opposed Graham-Cassidy, but he is a strong supporter of the tax cut portions of this bill, and his opposition to repeal was based more on the process of passage rather than the substance of the bill. I doubt mandate repeal alone would be a dealbreaker to him. But it's not impossible.

Young - Apparently has been raising deficit-related concerns about the bill, but I highly doubt he actually has a backbone.

Paul - Despite his previous stance against the framework, Paul "supports the bill as it stands right now", as reported by Bloomberg News. Still keep an eye on him, as the bill may be amended on the senate floor and it's not impossible that it could be amended in such a way that it changes his stance.

Safe Support: Other 43 GOP Senators


Overall: 50 AGAINST, 48 SUPPORT, 2 TOSS-UP

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Per C-SPAN 2, Motion to Proceed will be voted on this Evening. Not sure of exact timing.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Do not let Marty confuse you: When the Senate votes to bring this bill to debate today, they are voting for a plan that is primarily for the rich and powerful, that will raise the deficit by $1.4 Trillion, and that will kill 13 million people via repealing the individual mandate.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Do not let Marty confuse you: When the Senate votes to bring this bill to debate today, they are voting for a plan that is primarily for the rich and powerful, that will raise the deficit by $1.4 Trillion, and that will kill 13 million people via repealing the individual mandate.

I don't think all those 13 million people are going to die.

You're not helping. You're a Dem Hack, start acting like one.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

I'm being factual

I dislike the deficit side of the bill but to claim it raises taxes on the middle class is insanity

The cut for the middle class is much smaller than the cut for the rich, and the Poor may actually see a tax increase.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

MOTION TO PROCEED IN PROGRESS