$1.5 Trillion GOP Tax Cut Thread

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

House Plan being released today. Details per HuffPost: https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/republican-tax-bill_us_59fb289fe4b0b0c7fa387e8f

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[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

This bill doesn't look like some giant gift to the rich to me.

Highest bracket remains unchanged, people in large, expensive homes paying more, among other things.

Outside of estate tax repeal (which at end of day is not going to be repealed), I'm not seeing any egregious "trickle down economics", as our progressive forum-mates like to say.

The highest tax bracket has been changed. Those making $400,000 to $999,000 get a cut to 35% from the 39.6% top bracket.

Ultimately, I am still inclined to oppose this since it increases the deficit and increases the bottom tax bracket from 10 percent to 12 percent (new standard deduction only partially compensates for it). That being said, if Graham's minimum wage increase ends up being part of the final product, I may be willing to support it.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Again 1.5 trillion over the next 10 years can easily be made up in spending cuts.

Trusting politicians to cut spending at some point down the road is always a bad idea.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Again 1.5 trillion over the next 10 years can easily be made up in spending cuts.

Trusting politicians to cut spending at some point down the road is always a bad idea.

then its not this tax plan what made the deficit larger, it was politicians who refused to cut spending.

Right, but if we're not going to cut spending, we are adding that $1.5 T to the deficit, which is a bad idea. It's probably better to just not create that $1.5 T hole in the first place.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

While we're at it, let's take another swipe at Obamacare:

Conservatives push to repeal Obamacare mandate in tax package

Are they trying to make me (and America) rabidly oppose this?

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

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Ding Dong, the bill is dead

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

The house bill would eliminate the job-creating "Historical Tax Credit":

https://secure2.convio.net/nthp/site/Advocacy?cmd=display&page=UserAction&id=1244

At this point, I have decided to officially oppose this version of tax reform. Hopefully the Senate can do a better job.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Honestly, the Senate Bill looks decent. The bottom tax bracket is kept at 10% instead of being raised, the existing 7 bracket system is kept with only slight rate reductions, and a bunch of worthwhile deductions that are eliminated in the house bill are kept in the Senate Bill. I also like the fact that the corporate reduction isn't in full effect until a year has passed. I would prefer that some of SALT is kept, but whatever. Really, my only major grievance with this is the deficit increase, and that's not enough on its own for me to oppose this.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Politico is featuring this opinion article, which is throwing Cold Water on this tax reform thing actually passing: https://www.politico.com/agenda/story/2017/11/10/gop-tax-plan-programs-face-the-ax-000581

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

I am proud to officially endorse the Senate Tax Plan. I call on Congress to Unite behind it and pass it as quickly as possible.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

As Orrin Hatch detailed at today's committee hearing, there's no way to write a tax plan that affects every taxpayer the same way. This plan likely benefits the large majority of the middle class, and that is the goal. Somebody will end up on the wrong end of any plan, not necessarily intentionally  - even a simplified tax code remains complex. I'm sure if the democrats controlled congress and were trying to rewrite the tax code, we'd be reading about some non-super-rich population ending up with an increase as well. Rewriting the tax code is extraordinarily tough and politically costly, which is why it doesn't happen very often. While the house plan is a disaster that would serve to increase taxes on the poor while the middle class breaks even at best, and also contains an unacceptable effective top tax rate of 47%, the senate plan is clearly much better. I'm not saying the senate plan is perfect - far from it. I wish that it didn't increase the deficit or remove SALT. But few things are perfect. I commend Senate Republicans for coming up with, and hopefully uniting on, a decent plan that I believe will help the clear majority of middle class americans.

That being said, while my activism for or against stuff on here probably doesn't matter, putting changes to ObamaCare mandates into the bill would cause me to pull my support and urge opposition. ObamaCare is a separate issue that must be debated separately, and pulling the individual mandate with no adequate replacement would likely directly lead to the deaths of millions of americans due to loss of access to affordable insurance.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

As promised, with the mandate repeal now being included, I withdraw my endorsement of the Senate Bill and urge all Senators to oppose it.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

As promised, with the mandate repeal now being included, I withdraw my endorsement of the Senate Bill and urge all Senators to oppose it.

You do know that nobody cares, right?

Yes

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

People to watch:

-Johnson
-Collins
-McCain
-Murkowski

Also, the deficit Hawks: Paul, Corker, potentially Lankford

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

People to watch:

-Johnson
-Collins
-McCain
-Murkowski

Also, the deficit Hawks: Paul, Corker, potentially Lankford

What about Flake?

Flake has no spine, sorry.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

People to watch:

-Johnson
-Collins
-McCain
-Murkowski

Also, the deficit Hawks: Paul, Corker, potentially Lankford

What about Flake?

Flake has no spine, sorry.

Based on what? He wrote that book knowing it would put a giant target on his back, and has been the only Republican to endorse Jones. He also has nothing to lose anymore.

He's only voted against Trump on disaster relief, continuing resolutions, and Iran Sanctions: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/congress-trump-score/jeff-flake/

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

To Summarize the view of the Senate:

Solidly Opposed: The 45 Dem Senators who signed the tax reform demand letter

Likely Opposed:
Manchin, Donnelly, Heitkamp - they didn't sign the letter and have said they have an open mind regarding the legislation, but they are strong supporters of ObamaCare and I really don't think they'd vote to overturn the mandate - however, I can't rule out the silm possibility that if Republicans have 50 votes without them, one of them would vote yes anyway because "My vote wouldn't change the outcome and I want to show bipartisanship so I can get re-elected."

Paul - he voted against the framework, and his preferred amendments were rejected overwhelmingly. There's a small chance he eventually succumbs to party loyalty, as he did vote for Skinny Repeal. But it's highly unlikely.

Lean Opposed: Corker - deficit hawk - but will he actually have a spine? We'll see.

Toss-Up: Collins, Murkowski - Strong opponents of the ObamaCare repeal bills - but is mandate repeal alone a dealbreaker for them? We'll see. Both do generally support cutting taxes.

Lean Support: Lankford - he's said he'll vote against it "if it increases the deficit too much" - but didn't define what too much meant. He's a reliable vote for leadership, so the odds are he gets to yes, but we'll see.

Johnson - Said he can't support it right now, but he also said he wants to get to Yes. Odds are he'll find a way to vote yes eventually.

Likely Support:
Flake - Might want to show opposition to Trump, but also probably supports the intent of this bill. Probably only votes No if there are 51 votes against regardless of what he does.

McCain - Voted against Skinny Repeal and opposed Graham-Cassidy, but he is a strong supporter of the tax cut portions of this bill, and his opposition to repeal was based more on the process of passage rather than the substance of the bill. I doubt mandate repeal alone would be a dealbreaker to him. But it's not impossible.

Safe Support: Other 44 GOP Senators

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

HOUSE VOTE HAS STARTED

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Passes 227-205. 13 R's against, 2 Dems Abstaining.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Donovan, Faso, Frelinghuysen, Issa, Jones, King (NY), Lance, LoBiondo, McClintock, Rohrabacher, Stefanik, Smith (NJ), Zeldin - The 13 R No's. The two D abstentions were Pocan and Wilson (FL).   http://clerk.house.gov/evs/2017/roll637.xml

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

^ While I acknowledge that anything can happen, the road to the senate even passing something seems silm. The fact that there wasn't any rogue dem votes in the house from Cuellar or Peterson or whoever almost certainly means that Manchin, Donnelly, and Heitkamp will hold the D line. McConnell has for all intents and purposes already lost Paul's vote. That means out of Corker, Collins, Murkowski, Lankford, Johnson, McCain, and Flake, McConnell can only lose one. It's a very tough road to follow.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

^ While I acknowledge that anything can happen, the road to the senate even passing something seems silm. The fact that there wasn't any rogue dem votes in the house from Cuellar or Peterson or whoever almost certainly means that Manchin, Donnelly, and Heitkamp will hold the D line. McConnell has for all intents and purposes already lost Paul's vote. That means out of Corker, Collins, Murkowski, Lankford, Johnson, McCain, and Flake, McConnell can only lose one. It's a very tough road to follow.

I just don't see Collins being bought  unless she is really being bought.

I wouldn't put it past anyone to bribe Collins (or any other R) to vote Yes. It's not as if they have anything to worry about - the Courts have shown that bribery laws don't matter via the McDonnell and Menendez cases.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

So Flake is apparently actually considering voting no: http://time.com/5027964/gop-tax-reform-bill-reactions/

Murkowski making her support conditional on Alexander-Murray passing the Senate first: https://www.rollcall.com/news/politics/murkowski-alexander-murray-necessary

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Update:

To Summarize the view of the Senate:

Solidly Opposed: The 45 Dem Senators who signed the tax reform demand letter

Likely Opposed:
Manchin, Donnelly, Heitkamp - they didn't sign the letter and have said they have an open mind regarding the legislation, but they are strong supporters of ObamaCare and I really don't think they'd vote to overturn the mandate - however, I can't rule out the silm possibility that if Republicans have 50 votes without them, one of them would vote yes anyway because "My vote wouldn't change the outcome and I want to show bipartisanship so I can get re-elected"

Paul - he voted against the framework, and his preferred amendments were rejected overwhelmingly. There's a small chance he eventually succumbs to party loyalty, as he did vote for Skinny Repeal. But it's highly unlikely.

Lean Opposed:
Corker - deficit hawk - but will he actually have a spine? We'll see.

Murkowski - Has made her support conditional on passage of Alexander- Murray.

Toss-Up:
Collins- Strong opponent of the ObamaCare repeal bills - but is mandate repeal alone a dealbreaker for her? We'll see. She does generally support cutting taxes.

Lean Support:
Lankford - he's said he'll vote against it "if it increases the deficit too much" - but didn't define what too much meant. He's a reliable vote for leadership, so the odds are he gets to yes, but we'll see.

Johnson - Said he can't support it right now, but he also said he wants to get to Yes. Odds are he'll find a way to vote yes eventually.

Flake - Might want to show opposition to Trump, and has raised real doubts about the eventual affect of the bill, but also probably supports the intent of this bill, and he did vote for all versions of ObamaCare Repeal.

Likely Support:
McCain - Voted against Skinny Repeal and opposed Graham-Cassidy, but he is a strong supporter of the tax cut portions of this bill, and his opposition to repeal was based more on the process of passage rather than the substance of the bill. I doubt mandate repeal alone would be a dealbreaker to him. But it's not impossible.

Safe Support: Other 44 GOP Senators


Overall: 51 AGAINST, 48 SUPPORT, 1 TOSS-UP

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Paul moving toward Support, Collins moving toward against:

Update:

To Summarize the view of the Senate:

Solidly Opposed: The 45 Dem Senators who signed the tax reform demand letter

Likely Opposed:
Manchin, Donnelly, Heitkamp - they didn't sign the letter and have said they have an open mind regarding the legislation, but they are strong supporters of ObamaCare and I really don't think they'd vote to overturn the mandate - however, I can't rule out the silm possibility that if Republicans have 50 votes without them, one of them would vote yes anyway because "My vote wouldn't change the outcome and I want to show bipartisanship so I can get re-elected"

Lean Opposed:
Corker - deficit hawk - but will he actually have a spine? We'll see.

Murkowski - Has suggested that her support may be conditional on passage of Alexander- Murray.

Paul - he voted against the framework, and his preferred amendments were rejected overwhelmingly. Politico has said in at least one article that he appears to be open to the final legislation, the addition of ObamaCare appears to  have been a ploy to get his vote, and party pressure is a powerful tool. But I still expect him to vote No because he voted No on the framework.

Collins - Appeared to indicate on 11/19 CNN interview that her support would depend on passage of Alexander-Murray and a separate bill she wrote with Senator Nelson, and keeping the top rate at 39.6%, instead of lowering it to 38.5%.

Lean Support:
Lankford - he's said he'll vote against it "if it increases the deficit too much" - but didn't define what too much meant. He's a reliable vote for leadership, so the odds are he gets to yes, but we'll see.

Johnson - Said he can't support it right now, but he also said he wants to get to Yes. Odds are he'll find a way to vote yes eventually.

Flake - Might want to show opposition to Trump, and has raised real doubts about the eventual affect of the bill, but also probably supports the intent of this bill, and he did vote for all versions of ObamaCare Repeal.

Likely Support:
McCain - Voted against Skinny Repeal and opposed Graham-Cassidy, but he is a strong supporter of the tax cut portions of this bill, and his opposition to repeal was based more on the process of passage rather than the substance of the bill. I doubt mandate repeal alone would be a dealbreaker to him. But it's not impossible.

Safe Support: Other 44 GOP Senators


Overall: 52 AGAINST, 48 SUPPORT