AL-Senate Leadership Fund: Moore +4 in GOP primary runoff

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Undecideds will stick with the incumbent, but why do the numbers only add to 95%?

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Those outside of Moore's core know that a vote for Moore in the runoff is a vote to risk Jones winning the general. They'll go with Strange because of his electability - not unanimously, but enough for Strange to narrowly win the runoff.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Undecideds will stick with the incumbent, but why do the numbers only add to 95%?

Those outside of Moore's core know that a vote for Moore in the runoff is a vote to risk Jones winning the general. They'll go with Strange because of his electability - not unanimously, but enough for Strange to narrowly win the runoff.

[citation needed]

Strange = Classic establishment republican in the mold of Richard Shelby, who is beloved in the state.
Moore = Firebreathing reactionary jerk who makes Sessions look moderate.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

If the Grand Mufti of Mobile Roy Moore gets elected....I give him a year before he gets censured in the Senate

I hope and pray that if he somehow wins the runoff, Alabama is smart enough to elect Mr. Jones. Strange should pull through though.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

This isn't the shiniest of two turds, folks -- the favorability data says Moore is much better liked (especially among evangelicals) than Strange. He's just a poor candidate. What's with assuming Jones will do so well to make the seat competitive?

Strange is just a standard republican, but Moore is more reactionary than most tea partiers and will infuriate Democrats, Independents, and Moderate Republicans in a way that has never been seen before. Maybe he still wins narrowly because it's Alabama, but there's no way Moore could ever achieve the 25 to 30 point victories that Shelby and Sessions got in the years they had opponents.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

With Strange, McConnell/NRSC will run as many "A vote for Jones is a vote for Nancy Pelosi" ads as are needed to win big. With Moore, I wouldn't rule out the NRSC refusing to help him due to Moore being so anti-establishment.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

With Strange, McConnell/NRSC will run as many "A vote for Jones is a vote for Nancy Pelosi" ads as are needed to win big. With Moore, I wouldn't rule out the NRSC refusing to help him due to Moore being so anti-establishment.

And risk losing the Senate in 2018 and Jones becoming entrenched? Color me skeptical.

Even in a situation where Dems gain the AL seat, they'd still need to hold every seat they have in 2018, plus pickup NV/AZ. So unless the GOP dismantles to a point where they can't even defeat Claire McCaskill, they'd still have the senate.