Congressional Special Elections Results Thread (OLD, PLEASE UNSTICKY)

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

United States House of Representatives 004
Precincts Reporting: 32 of 620
Candidate   Votes   %   
D-James A. Thompson   18,776   56%   
    
L-Chris Rockhold   511   2%   
    
R-Ron Estes   14,093   42%   
    

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

United States House of Representatives 004
Precincts Reporting: 49 of 620
Candidate   Votes   %   
D-James A. Thompson   19,067   55%   
    
L-Chris Rockhold   533   2%   
    
R-Ron Estes   14,879   43%   
    
Outside of Sedgwick, the counties that are beyond just 1 precinct don't have Estes doing that badly. Weaker than Trump, but not terrible.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

United States House of Representatives 004
Precincts Reporting: 65 of 620
Candidate   Votes   %   
D-James A. Thompson   20,728   54%   
    
L-Chris Rockhold   606   2%   
    
R-Ron Estes   16,932   44%   
    

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

United States House of Representatives 004
Precincts Reporting: 71 of 620
Candidate   Votes   %   
D-James A. Thompson   22,133   54%   
    
L-Chris Rockhold   651   2%   
    
R-Ron Estes   18,029   44%   
    

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

United States House of Representatives 004
Precincts Reporting: 88 of 620
Candidate   Votes   %   
D-James A. Thompson   22,313   54%   
    
L-Chris Rockhold   679   2%   
    
R-Ron Estes   18,732   45%   
    

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

United States House of Representatives 004
Precincts Reporting: 104 of 620
Candidate   Votes   %   
D-James A. Thompson   22,422   53%   
    
L-Chris Rockhold   690   2%   
    
R-Ron Estes   19,063   45%   
    

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

United States House of Representatives 004
Precincts Reporting: 130 of 620
Candidate   Votes   %   
D-James A. Thompson   24,892   51%   
    
L-Chris Rockhold   804   2%   
    
R-Ron Estes   23,239   48%   
    
    

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

United States House of Representatives 004
Precincts Reporting: 199 of 620
Candidate   Votes   %   
D-James A. Thompson   28,646   51%   
    
L-Chris Rockhold   937   2%   
    
R-Ron Estes   27,105   48%   
    

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

United States House of Representatives 004
Precincts Reporting: 210 of 620
Candidate   Votes   %   
D-James A. Thompson   28,741   50%   
    
L-Chris Rockhold   952   2%   
    
R-Ron Estes   27,489   48%   
    

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

United States House of Representatives 004
Precincts Reporting: 275 of 620
Candidate   Votes   %   
D-James A. Thompson   30,394   49%   
    
L-Chris Rockhold   1,012   2%   
    
R-Ron Estes   30,129   49%   
    

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

United States House of Representatives 004
Precincts Reporting: 310 of 620
Candidate   Votes   %   
D-James A. Thompson   31,143   49%   
    
L-Chris Rockhold   1,063   2%   
    
R-Ron Estes   31,743   50%   

Estes is in the lead now, but waiting for the rest of Sedgwick before making any call here.
    

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

United States House of Representatives 004
Precincts Reporting: 334 of 620
Candidate   Votes   %   
D-James A. Thompson   31,346   48%   
    
L-Chris Rockhold   1,079   2%   
    
R-Ron Estes   32,319   50%   
    

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

United States House of Representatives 004
Precincts Reporting: 426 of 620
Candidate   Votes   %   
D-James A. Thompson   37,955   47%   
    
L-Chris Rockhold   1,396   2%   
    
R-Ron Estes   41,695   51%   
    

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

U.S. House - District 4 - Special General
South Central
481 of 620 Precincts Reporting - 78%
Name   Party   Votes   Vote %
Estes, Ron   GOP   46,176   52%
Thompson, James   Dem   40,305   46%
Rockhold, Chris   Lib   1,534   2%


All but 9 precincts of the remaining vote are in Sedgwick, so maybe not completely over.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

The SOS is on hold, but AP is still updating.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Given the trend in Sedgwick (only Thompson+7 now), and the Estes win in Harvey (all in now), I am ready to call this.

U.S. House - District 4 - Special General
South Central
513 of 620 Precincts Reporting - 83%
Name   Party   Votes   Vote %
Estes, Ron   GOP   50,066   52% WINNER
Thompson, James   Dem   44,006   46%
Rockhold, Chris   Lib   1,655   2%

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

U.S. House - District 4 - Special General
South Central
619 of 620 Precincts Reporting - 99%
Name   Party   Votes   Vote %
   Estes, Ron   GOP   60,945   53%
Thompson, James   Dem   51,467   45%
Rockhold, Chris   Lib   1,971   2%

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

FINAL:

U.S. House - District 4 - Special General
South Central
620 of 620 Precincts Reporting - 100%
Name   Party   Votes   Vote %
   Estes, Ron   GOP   63,505   53%
Thompson, James   Dem   55,310   46%
Rockhold, Chris   Lib   2,082   2%

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Well, the lead was fun while it lasted. Updating OP with next week's stuff.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Is there anywhere that has precinct-by-precinct results yet?

Here's Sedgwick, anyway:

2017


2016 President


Swing


Turnout as Percent of 2016 President

At least the republican-swinging precincts give me something to blame for Thompson's loss.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

While national Dems can't be NRA shills and keep the  base, they definitely​ should come out as supporters of the Heller Decision and quit supporting the magazine limits and assault weapons stuff. Don't just drop the issue, actually say your position has changed. And on Background checks and the like, show your support for it regularly, not just when there's been a crisis and you can find 50 crying parents on every corner to attend your big speech.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

While national Dems can't be NRA shills and keep the  base, they definitely​ should come out as supporters of the Heller Decision and quit supporting the magazine limits and assault weapons stuff. Don't just drop the issue, actually say your position has changed. And on Background checks and the like, show your support for it regularly, not just when there's been a crisis and you can find 50 crying parents on every corner to attend your big speech.

the absurd thing is ofc, that there are majorities .....crude one sometimes...for the changes democrats propose, but this is just not mattering at all in the political world of the US.

meaning: it is necessary to adapt your politics to be also directed AGAINST a majority to increase your majority, cause the people who are for more gun control are voting for you anyway.

Well, it's a majority made up of like 95% support in NYC and 20% support or less in places like NY-21 and KS-3. It's not a majority conducive to winning a large house majority in the foreseeable future.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

While national Dems can't be NRA shills and keep the  base, they definitely​ should come out as supporters of the Heller Decision and quit supporting the magazine limits and assault weapons stuff. Don't just drop the issue, actually say your position has changed. And on Background checks and the like, show your support for it regularly, not just when there's been a crisis and you can find 50 crying parents on every corner to attend your big speech.

the absurd thing is ofc, that there are majorities .....crude one sometimes...for the changes democrats propose, but this is just not mattering at all in the political world of the US.

meaning: it is necessary to adapt your politics to be also directed AGAINST a majority to increase your majority, cause the people who are for more gun control are voting for you anyway.

Well, it's a majority made up of like 95% support in NYC and 20% support or less in places like NY-21 and KS-3. It's not a majority conducive to winning a large house majority in the foreseeable future.

you are absolutely effing correct and since this topic is much easier for me to swallow than abortions and seems to be even more polarizing, i kind of agree with what you have proposed.

it's just mind-biggling for an middle-european, to say the least, that it's a winning strategy.

Abortion is very polarizing in a straight opinion poll, but at the same time, it's something that a strong majority of women never have, so it's not really all that personal for a lot of people - out of sight, out of mind. And then you get people like me, that definitely care about stopping Abortion, but don't want to be a single issue voter on the issue, because holding the country hostage over one issue just doesn't​ seem right. So unless you're Hillary-level stupid and go around supporting partial birth, Abortion doesn't really take up the minds of swing voters.

But with guns, it's very personal - most Americans, even a lot of mainline Dems, own a gun or know someone who does. It's very personal because suddenly your own property is at risk - you can't just not think about it. And if you're pro life as well, now you have two counts against the Dem. So it's pretty easy to see how this issue can much more easily occupy the minds of swing votes.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

The republican Ohio district that has the best prospects of a dem beating the incumbent, based on the pundits, seems to be the 14th (Joyce). While that district wouldn't flip in any normal scenario, in a year where Virginia 1 is flipping along with a ton of Texas seats and Georgia 12 flips back, I'd expect it to flip as well.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

For results coverage tonight, please follow the main GA-6 thread. I will still post here when I am ready to make a final call on the race, but otherwise coverage will be on the main GA-6 thread.