Trumpcare Megathread: It's dead (for now)

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Does anyone know enough about the policy specifics here to answer a pretty stupid question, ideally via PM?

Go ahead and pm me and I'll at least try to answer.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

If Trump wants to give Dems the house, and reduce the republican senate majority to 51-49 (Rs gain MO, lose NV, AZ), then I invite him to stop the CSRs.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Insurance companies will have no choice but to massively raise rates, which also means the Feds will pay a lot more in APTC subsidies.

Yep, which is why this would be such a stupid and short sighted move.

Remember that Trump's goal is to let ObamaCare implode to force lawmakers to repeal and replace it. Stopping CSRs aligns perfectly with that goal.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

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https://twitter.com/aslavitt/status/892475702511112198

Intentionally imploding the insurance market for political purposes is James Buchanan logic.

Yes, but at this point that tweet is doing nothing more than communicating a rumor from an anonymous source. I doubt that Trump will actually go through with this given that everyone else in Washington is telling him not to.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

The senate stands adjourned until September 5.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

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So, basically, about two million people die from lack of insurance over the course of 2018 and 2019, but it actually saves lives afterwards. If this were to be paired with $194 billion in tax increases for millionaires and/or spending cuts (I don't tolerate increasing the deficit), maybe I could support it.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

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Well, yes, if they wanted to do it as part of Fiscal 2017. But after they pass a budget for Fiscal 2018, they could use reconciliation under that budget to get ObamaCare repeal. Of course, this would mean they couldn't use reconciliation for tax reform until Fiscal 2019.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

The public is interested in a replacement for ObamaCare that is actually a (somewhat) satisfactory replacement. I imagine something like the Hickenlooper/Kasich plan or maybe the Cassidy/Collins plan would poll fairly well. What they're not interested in is a plan that kills up to 32 million people. But since republicans are only offering a replacement that kills up to 32 million people, people are rallying behind the Status Quo, as a sort of "better than the alternative" sort of thing.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Is there a CBO score for Graham/Cassidy?

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Is it actually dead?

Maybe. I wouldn't completely rule out Paul, or even Murkowski, eventually getting to yes.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

A few points of importance from here: http://www.politico.com/story/2017/09/17/obamacare-senate-republicans-repeal-242821

- McConnell will only bring up Graham-Cassidy if there are 50+ definite votes for the legislation. This means there will be no telling people "Just vote for the motion to begin debate and you can vote no on final passage later.", no late night whipping on CSPAN2, and no uncertainty during the process. If it's certain McConnell has 50+ votes, he'll bring it up, otherwise, it won't receive a second of discussion in the full senate.

- No vote this week due to the CBO needing more time to score it and the senate's limited schedule. If a vote happens, it will be during the week of September 25-30.

- If it passes the senate, the house must pass it as is or not at all, due to the extremely limited timetable.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

A few points of importance from here: http://www.politico.com/story/2017/09/17/obamacare-senate-republicans-repeal-242821

- McConnell will only bring up Graham-Cassidy if there are 50+ definite votes for the legislation. This means there will be no telling people "Just vote for the motion to begin debate and you can vote no on final passage later.", no late night whipping on CSPAN2, and no uncertainty during the process. If it's certain McConnell has 50+ votes, he'll bring it up, otherwise, it won't receive a second of discussion in the full senate.

- No vote this week due to the CBO needing more time to score it and the senate's limited schedule. If a vote happens, it will be during the week of September 25-30.

- If it passes the senate, the house must pass it as is or not at all, due to the extremely limited timetable.

So, this is a dead of night thing?

Basically, it's McConnell saying "get the votes on your own, I'm not helping aside from letting the vote occur if 50 senators want it."

So apparently Rand Paul and Susan Collins are already no votes? If true, I dont see Murkowski supporting this either.

Collins has said she's undecided, but it's unlikely she'd ultimately vote to defund Planned Parenthood.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Likelihood of this passing?

50%. It'll be up to Murkowski in the end. She LOVES planned parenthood, but does she really want to be known to republicans as the Senator who sabotaged ObamaCare repeal until at least fiscal 2019? It's a difficult question to answer.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

While I don't expect McCain to ultimately vote against Lindsey Graham, he's clearly trying to make his decision look agonizing: http://www.politico.com/story/2017/09/18/john-mccain-obamacare-repeal-vote-242853

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Does Rand Paul really want to go down in history as the Man Who Saved Obamacare?

The only hope is for Chuck and Nancy to offer something to Trump to make him veto this.

Paul's been clear that if it's a choice between "ObamaCare Lite" (what he sees Cassidy-Graham as) or making no changes to ObamaCare at all, he prefers making no changes at all. If he votes Yes on Cassidy-Graham, it would be because of some last-minute change to the bill.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

We'll know this bill is going down if Cornyn announces it has 50 votes and the vote will be held by the end of the week.

Given that Congress has left for the week and doesn't meet again until Monday, it'd be hard to have a vote this week.

Vote, if it happens, will be sometime between Wednesday the 27th and Friday the 29th.

The senate has not even adjourned Today's session (as of 7 ET): https://mobile.twitter.com/senategopfloor?lang=en

The reason why there isn't going to be a vote this week is because they're confirming nominations for the week. They do get Thurs/Fri off for the Jewish Holiday, but will be in session through tomorrow.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Earliest possible moment for next week's vote is Tuesday, as Monday is reserved for confirming an NLRB nomination.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Grassley's right that not repealing ObamaCare is a net negative for republicans - every vote they gain for not actually killing 16-32 million people comes at the cost of two or three republican base votes staying home because they don't like that Republicans broke a signature campaign promise. The problem is that repealing ObamaCare is also a net negative for republicans - every vote they gain from the increased energy repeal would give to the republican base comes at the cost of two or three voters who voted for Trump because they wanted NAFTA repealed, but don't like the idea of losing their health care. Since Republicans lose either way, they should do the morally and ethically better thing - which is to drop repeal of ObamaCare and instead focus on stabilizing and improving it.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

It would be hilarious if Murkowski votes Yes but the bill still fails.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

I don't think that most of the GOP senators are pure evil, they just honestly don't know how many thousands of lives have directly been saved by the ACA. If it hasn't directly impacted a friend or family member, and you automatically distrust anything Democrats say about it, how would you ever learn what a godsend it's been to millions?

IF they are to plea to ignorance, how exactly do you explain away the fact that they did their darnest to push the previous bill, which was analyzed to cut over 20 million Americans off healthcare??

It seems that they believe the CBO is a bunch of liberals.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Jeff Flake on Stephen Colbert tonight. Look for Flake to be hammered on his current support of Cassidy-Graham.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

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[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

So the whip count right now appears to be this:

Definite No: 50
All Dems, Collins, Paul
Lean No: 1
McCain
Toss-Up: 2
Murkowski
Capito
Probably yes but could surprise: 2
Ernst (http://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/2017/09/21/joni-ernst-leaning-yes-graham-cassidy-health-care-bill/686388001/)
Portman
Definite Yes (for now): 45
All other Repubs

Obviously not a good situation for McConnell.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

And enter some ultra-liberal writer trying to get someone to run to a court on a fruitless quest: http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2017/09/repealing-obamacare-for-49-states-probably-unconstitutional.html

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

I applaud Senator John McCain for standing up to his own party for a second time and again doing what is right for the american people. No matter what our President may say, McCain always was and always will be a true american hero. While he might have dabbled with the tea party for a year or three, McCain has now clearly returned to his moderate roots.

All Hail ObamaCare!!!!


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So the whip count right now appears to be this:

Definite No: 50
All Dems, Collins, Paul
Lean No: 1
McCain
Toss-Up: 2
Murkowski
Capito
Probably yes but could surprise: 2
Ernst (http://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/2017/09/21/joni-ernst-leaning-yes-graham-cassidy-health-care-bill/686388001/)
Portman
Definite Yes (for now): 45
All other Repubs

Obviously not a good situation for McConnell.

I would move McCain to toss-up and Murkowski to lean no.

Looks like I was right to have McCain in that Lean No category