Trumpcare Megathread: It's dead (for now)

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

To be clear, is TONIGHT at midnight, "THE" big vote on Trumpcare?

Maybe. We've heard Midnight and We've also heard 3 AM. We'll just have to see.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

with reconciliation, this bill won't be "permanent", right? And at rate, it can only get 50 votes max.

The Waivers, Individual Mandate Repeal, and HSA changes are permanent I believe. The rest eventually expires.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Question: On the Amendment (Heller Amdt. No. 502 )

Statement of Purpose: To strike the sunset of the repeal of the tax on employee health insurance premiums and health plan benefits.

Vote Result: Amendment Agreed to

YEAs ---52
Alexander (R-TN)
Barrasso (R-WY)
Blunt (R-MO)
Boozman (R-AR)
Burr (R-NC)
Capito (R-WV)
Cassidy (R-LA)
Cochran (R-MS)
Collins (R-ME)
Cornyn (R-TX)
Cortez Masto (D-NV)
Cotton (R-AR)
Crapo (R-ID)
Cruz (R-TX)
Daines (R-MT)
Enzi (R-WY)
Ernst (R-IA)
Fischer (R-NE)
Flake (R-AZ)
Gardner (R-CO)
Graham (R-SC)
Grassley (R-IA)
Hatch (R-UT)
Heinrich (D-NM)
Heller (R-NV)
Hoeven (R-ND)
Inhofe (R-OK)
Isakson (R-GA)
Johnson (R-WI)
Kennedy (R-LA)
Lankford (R-OK)
Lee (R-UT)
McCain (R-AZ)
McConnell (R-KY)
Moran (R-KS)
Murkowski (R-AK)
Paul (R-KY)
Perdue (R-GA)
Portman (R-OH)
Risch (R-ID)
Roberts (R-KS)
Rounds (R-SD)
Rubio (R-FL)
Scott (R-SC)
Shelby (R-AL)
Strange (R-AL)
Sullivan (R-AK)
Thune (R-SD)
Tillis (R-NC)
Toomey (R-PA)
Wicker (R-MS)
Young (R-IN)

NAYs ---48
Baldwin (D-WI)
Bennet (D-CO)
Blumenthal (D-CT)
Booker (D-NJ)
Brown (D-OH)
Cantwell (D-WA)
Cardin (D-MD)
Carper (D-DE)
Casey (D-PA)
Coons (D-DE)
Corker (R-TN)
Donnelly (D-IN)
Duckworth (D-IL)
Durbin (D-IL)
Feinstein (D-CA)
Franken (D-MN)
Gillibrand (D-NY)
Harris (D-CA)
Hassan (D-NH)
Heitkamp (D-ND)
Hirono (D-HI)
Kaine (D-VA)
King (I-ME)
Klobuchar (D-MN)
Leahy (D-VT)
Manchin (D-WV)
Markey (D-MA)
McCaskill (D-MO)
Menendez (D-NJ)
Merkley (D-OR)
Murphy (D-CT)
Murray (D-WA)
Nelson (D-FL)
Peters (D-MI)
Reed (D-RI)
Sanders (I-VT)
Sasse (R-NE)
Schatz (D-HI)
Schumer (D-NY)
Shaheen (D-NH)
Stabenow (D-MI)
Tester (D-MT)
Udall (D-NM)
Van Hollen (D-MD)
Warner (D-VA)
Warren (D-MA)
Whitehouse (D-RI)
Wyden (D-OR)

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

That was Cadillac tax?

Yes

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

So, the skinny repeal preserves 95% of ObamaCare, doesn't get rid of the Medicaid expansion, or the exchanges or like, 95% of things ObamaCare does.

But it raises premiums 20% and kicks off 16 million people because of higher premiums. Do I have that right?

Yes. And most Republican senators  seem to be aware of that and will vote yes anyway

They're making a short term political calculation that will royally screw them in future elections.

The thing is I don't even get what the short-term benefits are from this.

They get to campaign on having "repealed" ObamaCare and defunded PP.

I Also take this opportunity, if by some small chance a senator is reading this, to express my complete opposition to Skinny Repeal, which will kill 16 million people.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

So, the skinny repeal preserves 95% of ObamaCare, doesn't get rid of the Medicaid expansion, or the exchanges or like, 95% of things ObamaCare does.

But it raises premiums 20% and kicks off 16 million people because of higher premiums. Do I have that right?

Yes. And most Republican senators  seem to be aware of that and will vote yes anyway

They're making a short term political calculation that will royally screw them in future elections.

The thing is I don't even get what the short-term benefits are from this.

They'll get to say that they won and that they were able to do what everyone in the media establishment thought was impossible. They'll also get to say that they kept a major campaign promise, and they'll blame any of the catastrophic consequences of their bill on the Democrats.

Which the public won't blame Dems for tho. Cuz that's not how politics works

How politics works is whoever can dominate the narrative wins. And democrats should aim to dominate the narrative by pointing out repeatedly that Skinny Repeal will kill 16 million people.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

^ They are debating. No vote yet.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

HAPPENING NOW: VOTE ON MURRAY MOTION TO RETURN TO COMMITTEE

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

This isn't the vote IIRC, it comes after this right?

Yes

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Murray Motion ahead 38-24 so far, but no defections yet.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Murray Motion ahead 47-46. Still Party Line so far.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Murray Motion fails 48-52. Party Line Vote.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Is this McCain's excuse if he votes yes?
"These good senators convinced me in the final minutes"

Probably. This is why I endorsed Kirkpatrick for '16 Senate. McCain's days of being a moderate ended soon after Obama was elected.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Wasn't Capito going to vote no? What happened there?

No one knows. She said to a reporter that she isn't revealing her vote beforehand to make it "more fun".

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Pence has left the chamber.

That either means they are stuck at 49 or believe they have 51.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Pence has left the chamber.

That either means they are stuck at 49 or believe they have 51.

How in the world could they have 51?

Every R but Collins

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

I want to believe this will fail, but this bill has risen from the dead so many times that I just have no confidence that it will fail. McCain, please prove me wrong. Heller, please prove me wrong. Capito, please prove me wrong. Murkowski, please prove me wrong. Collins, please prove me wrong. God, please prove me wrong.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Please, God, please, let skinny repeal fail. McCain, Murkowski, Collins, Heller, please have some sense. Please do not allow this bill, which will kill 16 million people, to pass.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

So do they just pull the vote at this point?

If they somehow actually don't have the votes, either that or McConnell lets it fail anyways to bring closure to the issue and declare it dead, and ObamaCare the law of the land, for good.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Where can this be tracked live?

https://www.c-span.org/video/?431873-1/us-senate-skinny-repeal-vote-looms-health-care-debate&live

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

It was a reporter's notebook that fell and hit Sen. Scott in the head.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

SKINNY VOTE STARTING

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Some sort of brief clapping just happened.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Collins, Murkowski, McCain all voted no!!!!!!

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Officially Fails, 49-51. PRAISE THE LORD!!!!!!