2018 Senate Rankings

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Out of an abundance of caution because of the polling we have seen, I am moving Texas out of the Safe Category. I fully expect that Republicans will come home and that the race will return to the Safe Category by election day, but at this point in time I am not confident enough to keep it there. So Texas moves to Likely R.

Also moving out of the Safe Category is New Mexico. This moves to Likely D due to the candidacy of Gary Johnson.

Safe D (17): VT, MD, DE, CT, RI, MA, NY, WA, HI, CA, MN-Regular, ME, VA, MN-Special, MI, PA, WI
Likely D (2): NJ, NM
Lean D (4):  NV (D+1), AZ (D+2), OH, WV
Toss-Up (5): ND, TN, FL, MO, MT
Lean R (1): IN (D+1)
Likely R (2): MS-Special, TX
Safe R (4): MS-Regular, NE, WY, UT

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Out of an abundance of caution because of the polling we have seen, I am moving Texas out of the Safe Category. I fully expect that Republicans will come home and that the race will return to the Safe Category by election day, but at this point in time I am not confident enough to keep it there. So Texas moves to Likely R.

Also moving out of the Safe Category is New Mexico. This moves to Likely D due to the candidacy of Gary Johnson.

Safe D (17): VT, MD, DE, CT, RI, MA, NY, WA, HI, CA, MN-Regular, ME, VA, MN-Special, MI, PA, WI
Likely D (2): NJ, NM
Lean D (4):  NV (D+1), AZ (D+2), OH, WV
Toss-Up (5): ND, TN, FL, MO, MT
Lean R (1): IN (D+1)
Likely R (2): MS-Special, TX
Safe R (4): MS-Regular, NE, WY, UT

"TX-SEN Likely R while OH is Lean D"

My ratings treat each state as an independent contest and where I rank one contest does not determine where I rate any other contest. I believe that ratings are more accurate when each state is treated independently and one does not consider whether a random selection of 2 or 3 ratings "makes sense together" or not.

On Ohio specifically, while Brown is undoubtedly favored, I remain hesitant to make him too much of a favorite given how violently Ohio swung to the right in 2016.

On Texas, I will note for the record that I am a blue texas skeptic and will remain so until dems do well there on election day.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Arizona moves to Toss-Up since McSally was nominated.

Safe D (17): VT, MD, DE, CT, RI, MA, NY, WA, HI, CA, MN-Regular, ME, VA, MN-Special, MI, PA, WI
Likely D (2): NJ, NM
Lean D (3):  NV (D+1), OH, WV
Toss-Up (6): ND, TN, FL, MO, MT, AZ
Lean R (1): IN (EVEN)
Likely R (2): MS-Special, TX
Safe R (4): MS-Regular, NE, WY, UT

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Due to the polling from Trafalgar and Marist, IN moves from Lean R to Toss-Up:

Safe D (17): VT, MD, DE, CT, RI, MA, NY, WA, HI, CA, MN-Regular, ME, VA, MN-Special, MI, PA, WI
Likely D (2): NJ, NM
Lean D (3):  NV (D+1), OH, WV
Toss-Up (7): ND, TN, FL, MO, MT, AZ, IN
Lean R (0)
Likely R (2): MS-Special, TX
Safe R (4): MS-Regular, NE, WY, UT

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Some changes now that the Kavanaugh drama is over:

North Dakota moves from Toss-Up to Lean R. This is more because of the polling then because Heitkamp voted No, but in the event she voted Aye, I would leave it at Toss-Up just to see if that caused her to surge. Now that she has voted No, the change is made.

West Virginia moves from Lean D to Likely D. In the event that Manchin had voted No, Morrisey might have surged - the nomination is very popular in WV, and likely popular among the sorts of voters Manchin needs. At the very least, it would have given the Morrisey campaign fresh ad material. With Manchin voting Aye, he has fresh claims of bipartisanship and has effectively neutralized a major political issue. This race might not even be close at this point.

Also, I had been hesitant to list Sherrod Brown as too big of a favorite because Ohio swung so violently to the right in 2016, but at this point in the cycle, I am comfortable with shifting the race from Lean D to Likely D.

Safe D (17): VT, MD, DE, CT, RI, MA, NY, WA, HI, CA, MN-Regular, ME, VA, MN-Special, MI, PA, WI
Likely D (4): NJ, NM, OH, WV
Lean D (1):  NV (D+1)
Toss-Up (6): TN, FL, MO, MT, AZ, IN
Lean R (1): ND (EVEN)
Likely R (2): MS-Special, TX
Safe R (4): MS-Regular, NE, WY, UT

Overall, Republicans retain a clear edge in the battle for the Senate. The senate stands at 49-45 R with 6 Toss-Ups, meaning that Republicans need to win just one of the Toss-Ups while the Dems would need to sweep all six. If there is movement out of the Lean/Likely categories (away from Safe), it will probably favor Republicans - Heller continues to poll far better than he should, Menendez continues to have underwhelming numbers, and it's difficult to completely trust OH and WV to vote D. On the other hand, Heitkamp appears to be in a slump, and voting against Kavanaugh isn't going to help her recover, MS-Special will go to a lower-turnout December runoff, which will favor Republicans regardless of whether it determines senate control, and TX is really only plausible on the most amazing of election nights.

New Mexico also remains out of the Safe Category. While Rich has refused to drop out, four of the last five polls show Johnson in second place, and three of the five show Johnson within 10 points of Heinrich. No one can truly say whether Johnson will surge to a narrow victory, whether he is the next Tom Tancredo (is the clear dominant opposition, but the small "detractor vote" ultimately dooms him), or whether he is the next Larry Pressler (Inspiring poll numbers, but gets only 15-20% on election day, placing 3rd.). This race will be interesting to watch, and in the event Johnson wins, watch for major campaigning from both sides to add Mr. Johnson to their caucus.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

<snip>

If Johnson wins, he'll form a Libertarian caucus...which Rand Paul will promptly join, as will Justin Amash when he wins the 2020 Senate race in Michigan.

LOLOLOL...But to take this seriously, I'm pretty sure this isn't even possible, unless Johnson would serve on half of all senate committees and Rand the other half, which would be a heck of a workload. It would add a new layer to the beginning of a hearing though: "I now turn to the Ranking Libertarian for his opening statement".

Also Peters will win re-election, kthxbye.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Based on the NYT/Siena poll, TN moves from Toss-Up to Likely R. Blackburn's lead is well outside of the extreme of the sampling error, and while other recent polls have not been as wide, they have showed Blackburn ahead.

Safe D (17): VT, MD, DE, CT, RI, MA, NY, WA, HI, CA, MN-Regular, ME, VA, MN-Special, MI, PA, WI
Likely D (4): NJ, NM, OH, WV
Lean D (1):  NV (D+1)
Toss-Up (5): FL, MO, MT, AZ, IN
Lean R (1): ND (EVEN)
Likely R (3): MS-Special, TX, TN
Safe R (4): MS-Regular, NE, WY, UT

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Time to make another (presumably) final pick. I predict that the incumbent Senator Joe Donnelly (D) will survive in Indiana. There is certainly lots of evidence on both sides in this race, and I'm not here to ding anyone who is betting on Braun. But ultimately, I've always had a good feeling about Donnelly, even when I had the race at Lean R for state electoral history reasons, and when polling is inconclusive as it is here, I've learned over the years that it's best I trust my gut. And it's telling me to bet on Donnelly.

For now, I will continue to mull over Arizona and Missouri, though if I had to choose today, I'd pick Sinema in AZ and Hawley in MO.

Safe D (17): VT, MD, DE, CT, RI, MA, NY, WA, HI, CA, MN-Regular, ME, VA, MN-Special, MI, PA, WI
Likely D (4): NJ, NM, OH, WV
Lean D (4):  NV (D+1), MT, FL, IN
Toss-Up (2): MO, AZ
Lean R (1): ND (EVEN)
Likely R (3): MS-Special, TX, TN
Safe R (4): MS-Regular, NE, WY, UT

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

New Mexico moves off the board into the Safe D category, and Arizona moves into Lean D - thanks Trafalgar for giving me confidence on this final pick.

I'll decide who to bet on in Missouri, the truest coin flip contest of this cycle, tomorrow.

Safe D (18): VT, MD, DE, CT, RI, MA, NY, WA, HI, CA, MN-Regular, ME, VA, MN-Special, MI, PA, WI, NM
Likely D (3): NJ, OH, WV
Lean D (5):  NV (D+1), MT, FL, IN, AZ (D+2)
Toss-Up (1): MO
Lean R (1): ND (EVEN)
Likely R (3): MS-Special, TX, TN
Safe R (4): MS-Regular, NE, WY, UT

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

I can barely believe I'm doing this, this was a race I had at Likely R when the cycle began, and I'm going against Sabato's final pick here, but let's face it, Missouri has surprised us all this cycle. Special State Legislative Elections held in February and June featured Dems massively outperforming expectations. The incumbent governor was forced into resignation. And quite frankly, Republican Senate Candidate Josh Hawley has done what he could to hand this race over to the Dems. I'm ultimately putting a lot of faith and trust in Marist here, but hey, it's time to be bold.

Missouri moves to Lean D.

Safe D (18): VT, MD, DE, CT, RI, MA, NY, WA, HI, CA, MN-Regular, ME, VA, MN-Special, MI, PA, WI, NM
Likely D (3): NJ, OH, WV
Lean D (6):  NV (D+1), MT, FL, IN, AZ (D+2), MO
Lean R (1): ND (D+1)
Likely R (3): MS-Special, TX, TN
Safe R (4): MS-Regular, NE, WY, UT

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Lean R (1): ND (EVEN)

Should have D+1 here.

Original has been corrected. Thanks.