Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon
Dwarven Dragon
Atlas Politician
Atlas Superstar
Posts: 31,980
Political Matrix E: -1.42, S: -0.52
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« on: October 04, 2016, 10:25:27 PM » |
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Look at the similarities of the early debates:
1st Debate, 2012: Obama was very close to having the race completely locked up, perhaps even getting his 2008 margin all over again. The debate happens, he loses by a wide margin, and Romney gets a significant bounce.
VP Debate, 2012: Biden and Ryan both perform well, but Biden is viewed as the slightly better debater. Romney's bounce comes to a halt and even recedes slightly.
1st Debate, 2016: Trump was very close to becoming the favorite. The debate happens, he loses by a wide margin, and Clinton rebounds.
VP Debate, 2016: Kaine and Pence both perform well, but Pence is viewed as the slightly better debater. If Clinton's bounce halts/recedes slightly, this will be a repeat of 2012, just with the opposite party benefiting.
In the 2nd and 3rd debates in 2012, Obama came back with a vengeance, won convincingly in both debates, and won the election fairly comfortably.
This could mean that in the 2nd and 3rd debates in 2016, Trump comes back with a vengeance, wins convincingly in both debates, and wins the election. Since everyone knows Trump is stupid on FP, the media might "sympathy swing" that debate to him even if it's a narrow Clinton win.
Honestly tonight has made me start to worry again.
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