A Republican incumbent at 45% in a blue state, with most undecideds being closeted Hassan supporters? Terrible poll for Ayotte, even though I think she won't lose by more than 3 or 4 points. Still Safe D for now.
She's at 47%. In no other state would a candidate at 47% be considered to have no chance of winning. It's only fair that this goes to Toss-Up (granted I only had it at Lean D, but still)
Unless Ayotte breaks 50% in the polls (not happening), Hassan will win. She's outspending her by aa lot, has a strong ground game and NH is a blue state so most undecideds are likely Democrats. People are getting fooled by those NH polls showing a close race, like in 2012 and 2014. Keep holding out hope but don't be surprised when Ayotte loses on election day.
There is a libertarian candidate on the ballot, so Ayotte might not need 50%, and please, this isn't Massachusetts, undecideds aren't going to break 100% Hassan.