Illinois 18 Special Election Thread

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

The Primaries for the Special Election to fill the 18th congressional district seat in Illinois, left vacant after the resignation of Republican Congressman Aaron Schock due to allegations of improper spending of campaign funds and pending ethics investigations, will be held on July 7th. The General Election is on September 10th.

Schock won reelection 75-25 percent in 2014, Mitt Romney carried the district 61-37 percent in 2012, and the district's Cook PVI is R+11. Because of these factors, most prognosticators expect the seat to remain in republican hands.

Democratic Candidates

Adam Lopez - Member of the Springfield School Board and a representative of Country Financial

Rob Mellon - Teacher and Army Veteran. Lost the 2014 IL-18 Democratic Nomination to Farmer Darrel Miller.

Republican Candidates

Mike Flynn - Political Strategist

Darin LaHood - State Senator and Son of Former U.S. Rep. Ray LaHood (R, IL-18, '95-'09)

Donald Reints - Former Corrections Officer

My Prediction

LaHood - 64%
Flynn - 20%
Reints - 16%

Lopez - 56%
Mellon - 44%

I will withhold a GE prediction for now.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

5 hours and 20 minutes until polls close.

Results:

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2015/by_state/IL_Page_0707.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS

http://dd.aoshq.com/results/illinois-18/ (ignore the numbers there right now, it's just test data until polls close)

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Per AOSHQDD:

LaHood 1289, Flynn 79, Rients 17 for some early meaningless numbers.

Mellon 76, Lopez 52 for the Democrats

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

LaHood 1554, Flynn 131, Rients 28

Mellon 107, Lopez 58


Still just early vote.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

2% of the vote is in:

LaHood leading Flynn 87-11-2

Mellon leading Lopez 57-43

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

14% of the vote is now in:

LaHood leading Flynn 76-22-2. Flynn leading in Adams and Cass Counties, LaHood leading everywhere else.

Mellon leading Lopez 53-47

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

32% in:

LaHood leading Flynn 69-29-2

Mellon leading Lopez 60-40

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

My Prediction

Lopez - 56%
Mellon - 44%

?

Also, why do AoShHQDD and AP always show different numbers?

That was only a prediction, based on the fact that Mellon lost last year's primary.

The two sites get results by different means.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

43% in:

LaHood leading Flynn 71-27-2. Flynn will win at least 1 county, possibly 2 or 3.

This seems over on both sides, but no call yet from AP.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

76% in:

LaHood leading Flynn 69-28-3

Mellon leading Lopez 60-40

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Quite obvious Lahood will have an easy win for the seat.

Yep. The only question is if Mellon can do better than Zinn did in Mississippi last month.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

92% in:

LaHood leading Flynn 69-28-3. Flynn has won Adams County and it is still Too Close To Call in McLean County. LaHood won everywhere else.

Mellon leading Lopez 61-39.

Still no call on the democratic side from AP.

Also, the turnout on the democratic side is beyond terrible.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Final Results:

LaHood 31,361 ; 69%
Flynn 12,560 ; 28%
Rients 1,233 ; 3%

Mellon 4,599 ; 61%
Lopez 2,999 ; 39%

-----------

The general is on September 10th.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Mellon and LaHood will be debating tonight and tomorrow night: http://www.whig.com/story/29858713/lahood-mellon-to-debate-twice-this-week

Brief look at both candidates:

http://www.cinewsnow.com/news/local/Time-to-meet-18th-Congressional-District-Candidate-Darin-LaHood---322898161.html
http://www.cinewsnow.com/news/local/We-take-a-look-at-18th-District-Congressional-Candidate-Rob-Mellon-322770191.html

The GE is 2 weeks from tomorrow

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

The general is the day after Tomorrow. I'm predicting a 66-34 LaHood victory.

Anyone think Mellon will win?

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Results Page: http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2015/by_state/IL_Page_0910.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS

Nothing in yet

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Early vote coming in:

U.S. House - District 18 - Special General
Central West
1 of 780 Precincts Reporting - 0%
Name    Party   Votes     Vote %
LaHood, Darin   GOP   740   73%
Mellon, Rob   Dem   275   27%

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

This is looking like a total drubbing. LaHood outperforming Romney by 10 points.

U.S. House - District 18 - Special General
Central West
6 of 780 Precincts Reporting - 1%
Name   Party   Votes   Vote %
LaHood, Darin   GOP   1,039   71%
Mellon, Rob   Dem   434   29%

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Depressing Turnout is delaying AP's call on the race. But the winner looks obvious:

U.S. House - District 18 - Special General
Central West
42 of 780 Precincts Reporting - 5%
Name   Party   Votes   Vote %
LaHood, Darin   GOP   2,677   71%
Mellon, Rob   Dem   1,069   29%

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Tightening slightly. Still no call.

U.S. House - District 18 - Special General
Central West
118 of 780 Precincts Reporting - 15%
Name   Party   Votes   Vote %
LaHood, Darin   GOP   5,631   68%
Mellon, Rob   Dem   2,691   32%

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Called for LaHood

U.S. House - District 18 - Special General
Central West
365 of 780 Precincts Reporting - 47%
Name    Party   Votes   Vote %
LaHood, Darin   GOP   15,782   68%
Mellon, Rob   Dem   7,576   32%

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Final Results in. LaHood outperforms Romney by 8%.

U.S. House - District 18 - Special General
Central West
780 of 780 Precincts Reporting - 100%
Name   Party   Votes   Vote %
   LaHood, Darin   GOP   34,907   69%
Mellon, Rob   Dem   15,840   31%