Missouri 2016: Hillary Clinton down 3-4 points in internal polls

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Missouri voted 13 points to the right of the nation in 2012. Even if we disregard 2012 due to Obama conceding the state early on, we still have the fact that Missouri went from voting 5 points to the left of the nation in 92 to 7 points to the right of the nation in 08 without ever backtracking during that time period. There is no reason to believe that missouri has stopped trending republican, but it is possible that there will be something of a reversion to the mean from 2012 due to increased democratic campaigning in the state - so Missouri may vote only 9 or 10 points to the right of the nation in 2016 - but that's still republican enough that it isn't going for Clinton outside of a landslide in which she also wins every Obama 2012 state including CO, plus NC, GA, and probably AZ.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

When looking at the margin of victory, Missouri has always been overrated as the bellwether state of the nation; it pretty much got lucky picking the overall winner so many times.

Missouri was genuinely competitive during all of the non-landslides of 1960-2004. Now, after two misses in the same direction, and a consistent 20 year republican trend, it has been pretty much accepted now that Missouri's days of being a bellwether are over. If Hillary Clinton wins MO, it will be because she has absolutely crushed the republican nominee.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

I told you that Missouri will be a swing state again. Missouri will decide this election.

I can personally guarantee that Missouri will not decide the election.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Basically, the Republican nominee has to collapse for Missouri to be in play for the Democratic nominee.

Sure, Obama conceded Missouri early so that the Democratic Senator could be re-elected... Missouri going for Hillary Clinton implies that she has a near-landslide.

Akin's "legitimate rape" gaffe was in August - Obama conceded Missouri before that. Before that gaffe, McCaskill appeared doomed.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Presidential campaigns can only spend so much money in Ohio and Florida.

Obama spent essentially nothing in Missouri. Hillary Clinton will do the same if she has any intelligence at all.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Hillary could contest this state. You guys act like this is Pennsylvania or Michigan for Republicans.

What's the difference?

Hillary can actually win here. Republican nominees have been trying for ages to win Pennsylvania and Michigan. Hasn't happened since their last landslide victory. Missouri, on the other hand, has been won by Democratic nominees in non-landslides, and nearly went for Obama in 2008. It was competitive in 2000 and 2004 as well. In my lifetime, Pennsylvania has never been competitive, despite the GOP thinking it is.

Pennsylvania was closer than Missouri in 2004.