Nate is a true FF. Do you remember in 2012 when all the bloviating Washington pundits were saying the race was too close to call ? Or that it was a complete toss up ?
They were flat out wrong, sure the election in the swing states was close, but Obama ended up winning all of the swing states minus NC, as Nate predicted. Nate had Obama's chance at over 80 % most of the election cycle. After Obama had that bad first debate, the belt way media screamed about the Romney surge and how he could win the race. Even after that debate, Nate still had Obama at around a 73 % chance of winning.
Also Nate completely nailed 2008 with his demographic analysis of the electorate. The whole Starbucks v Walmart comparison was a fascinating one. You could probably nail the 2008 election using that map.
While it's true that he's done well in presidential election years, his performance was weaker in 2010 on some levels, and in 2014 he was decidedly average. Plus, he's proved terrible in predicting anything that isn't politics. He's hardly the "god" of predicting that some people think he is. Plus his whole "I can never be wrong because I only give probabilities!" shtick just comes off as rude and elitist.