2016 Presidential Predictions (General) (user search)
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  2016 Presidential Predictions (General) (search mode)
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Latest 2016 Predictions (Highest Scores)
User Map Prof Date Ver. Pickup Rep Dem Ind #C
Dav64 (R-NC)MapProfile 11-07 1 R +54 260 (+54) 278 (-54) 0 (0) 0
TexasDemocrat (G-TX)MapProfile 11-07 2 R +54 260 (+54) 278 (-54) 0 (0) 0
Mark Warner 08 (I-AUT)MapProfile 11-07 1 R +60 266 (+60) 272 (-60) 0 (0) 0
JonathanSwift (R-GA)MapProfile 11-07 32 R +119 325 (+119) 213 (-119) 0 (0) 0
Sheliak6 (I-GA)Map 11-07 20 R +74 280 (+74) 258 (-74) 0 (0) 0
dfwlibertylover (D-TX)MapProfile 11-07 4 R +54 260 (+54) 278 (-54) 0 (0) 0
AHDuke99 (R-SC)MapProfile 11-07 1 R +25 231 (+25) 307 (-25) 0 (0) 0
dmurphy1984 (R-NY)Map 11-07 1 R +54 260 (+54) 278 (-54) 0 (0) 0
Averroes (I-VT)MapProfile 11-08 21 R +39 245 (+39) 293 (-39) 0 (0) 0
Byrhtferth (I-GBR)MapProfile 10-05 1 R +60 266 (+60) 272 (-60) 0 (0) 0
Latest 2016 Predictions (Most Recent Entries)
User Map Prof Date Ver. Pickup Rep Dem Ind #C
Ruby2014 (I-OH)MapProfile 11-08 11 R +144 350 (+144) 188 (-144) 0 (0) 0
HagridOfTheDeep (D-BC)MapProfile 11-08 29 D +10 196 (-10) 342 (+10) 0 (0) 0
kyc0705 (D-NJ)MapProfile 11-08 7 R +9 215 (+9) 323 (-9) 0 (0) 0
skolodji (D-CA)MapProfile 11-08 3 D +10 196 (-10) 342 (+10) 0 (0) 0
Ryne (R-WA)MapProfile 11-08 9 R +84 290 (+84) 248 (-84) 0 (0) 0
sbane1 (I-TX)Map 11-08 2 D +20 186 (-20) 352 (+20) 0 (0) 0
Clinton1996 (D-GA)MapProfile 11-08 3 D +10 196 (-10) 342 (+10) 0 (0) 0
Shadowlord88 (D-KY)MapProfile 11-08 3 D +9 197 (-9) 341 (+9) 0 (0) 0
Beaver2 (D-VA)MapProfile 11-08 5 R +9 215 (+9) 323 (-9) 0 (0) 0
ahfink (O-IL)Map 11-08 1 R +59 265 (+59) 273 (-59) 0 (0) 0
Latest 2016 Predictions (Most Recent Comments)
User Map Prof Date Ver. Pickup Rep Dem Ind #C
deleteduser (I-WV)
by man_of_honor885 on 2018-11-06 @ 06:32:28		Map 11-07 290 R +10 216 (+10) 322 (-10) 0 (0) 12
Spenstar3D (D-NY)
by boatfullogoats on 2018-10-08 @ 03:19:40		MapProfile 11-07 1 R +70 276 (+70) 262 (-70) 0 (0) 1
RobLewis (R-AZ)
by boatfullogoats on 2018-10-08 @ 03:18:15		MapProfile 10-05 1 R +106 312 (+106) 226 (-106) 0 (0) 2
slick67 (R-SC)
by KnuxMaster368 on 2018-09-13 @ 11:03:34		MapProfile 10-21 1 R +101 307 (+101) 231 (-101) 0 (0) 1
Simfan34 (I-NY)
by firstdegreburns on 2017-10-24 @ 19:55:03		MapProfile 12-14 2 D +178 11 (-195) 510 (+178) 17 (+17) 1
norlion (R-FL)
by jaichind on 2016-12-05 @ 07:50:32		Map 12-02 1 R +93 299 (+93) 239 (-93) 0 (0) 3
Abe_Washington (R-NY)
by Abe_Washington on 2016-11-18 @ 12:00:43		Map 07-30 4 R +139 345 (+139) 193 (-139) 0 (0) 2
colin (I-ON)
by colin on 2016-11-16 @ 08:36:08		MapProfile 11-07 9 R +60 266 (+60) 272 (-60) 0 (0) 1
wingindy (I-IN)
by deleteduser on 2016-11-12 @ 20:22:34		Map 07-25 11 R +94 300 (+94) 238 (-94) 0 (0) 6
ReaganClinton16 (D-CT)
by ReaganClinton16 on 2016-11-09 @ 18:23:58		MapProfile 11-08 14 R +9 215 (+9) 323 (-9) 0 (0) 1
Latest Discussion Topics
Author Topic: 2016 Presidential Predictions (General)  (Read 88892 times)
Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon
Dwarven Dragon
Atlas Politician
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,984
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -0.52

P P P
« Reply #25 on: October 12, 2016, 09:39:10 AM »
ME-2: Lean R ---> Toss-Up
ME-AL: Toss-Up ---> Lean D
OH: Toss-Up ---> Lean D
MI: Lean D ---> Safe D

Clinton landslide incoming!
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Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon
Dwarven Dragon
Atlas Politician
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,984
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -0.52

P P P
« Reply #26 on: October 12, 2016, 12:25:31 PM »


Utah: Lean R ---> Toss-Up
Idaho: Safe R ---> Lean R

Just how big is this landslide going to be?
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Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon
Dwarven Dragon
Atlas Politician
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,984
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -0.52

P P P
« Reply #27 on: October 13, 2016, 05:30:09 PM »
NC: Toss-Up to Lean D
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Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon
Dwarven Dragon
Atlas Politician
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,984
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -0.52

P P P
« Reply #28 on: October 17, 2016, 01:35:11 PM »
OH back to Toss-Up, ND/SD lock in for Trump
Logged
Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon
Dwarven Dragon
Atlas Politician
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,984
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -0.52

P P P
« Reply #29 on: October 19, 2016, 10:37:58 PM »
Post-Debate: Clinton locks in Nevada, Colorado, Minnesota
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Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon
Dwarven Dragon
Atlas Politician
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,984
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -0.52

P P P
« Reply #30 on: October 24, 2016, 12:39:16 PM »
NC: Lean D -> Toss-Up
GA: Lean R -> Toss-Up
Logged
Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon
Dwarven Dragon
Atlas Politician
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,984
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -0.52

P P P
« Reply #31 on: October 27, 2016, 10:24:01 PM »
ID locks in.
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Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon
Dwarven Dragon
Atlas Politician
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,984
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -0.52

P P P
« Reply #32 on: October 28, 2016, 07:40:50 PM »
Moving NV back out of Safe, but I would still consider it a pretty big upset if Trump won it.
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Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon
Dwarven Dragon
Atlas Politician
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,984
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -0.52

P P P
« Reply #33 on: October 29, 2016, 11:57:59 PM »
Well, this is a change I never imagined I'd be making:

AK: Lean R -> Toss-Up
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Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon
Dwarven Dragon
Atlas Politician
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,984
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -0.52

P P P
« Reply #34 on: October 30, 2016, 07:04:15 PM »
Trump is probably getting a minor bounce, but Clinton still has 278 EVs at least leaning towards her, and one of these changes is actually in her favor:

FL: Lean D -> Toss-Up
ME-AL: Lean D -> Safe D
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Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon
Dwarven Dragon
Atlas Politician
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,984
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -0.52

P P P
« Reply #35 on: October 31, 2016, 10:21:38 AM »
« Edited: October 31, 2016, 12:17:06 PM by Dwarven Dragon »
GA moves back to Lean R

Also locking in IN
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Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon
Dwarven Dragon
Atlas Politician
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,984
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -0.52

P P P
« Reply #36 on: November 02, 2016, 09:40:48 PM »
The polling averages combined with the 538 odds obligate me to put NV back in the Toss-Up category (Trump actually leads in the 538 now-cast of NV). However, Hillary is still a very clear favorite in the election, as there is no indication whatsoever that Trump has caught up in WI, PA, NH, or NM. Trump needs one of those states to actually win.

In less surprising news, I have decided to lock in MO, MT, and SC.
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Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon
Dwarven Dragon
Atlas Politician
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,984
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -0.52

P P P
« Reply #37 on: November 03, 2016, 01:15:21 PM »
« Edited: November 03, 2016, 04:04:01 PM by Dwarven Dragon »
When it is all said and done, I believe Trump will carry the state of Utah.

Edit: And Arizona.
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Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon
Dwarven Dragon
Atlas Politician
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,984
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -0.52

P P P
« Reply #38 on: November 04, 2016, 04:50:54 PM »
Putting a thumb on the scale for Trump in Iowa, Ohio, and NE-2. Still a long way to go for him though - he needs to take both North Carolina and Florida - I would put NC in Clinton's column if the election were being held today. He then needs to dislodge one of the lean Dem states and potentially supplement it.

If he takes PA - no supplement needed
If he takes WI - needs Nevada, or Alaska+ME-2, or Alaska alone if he's willing to settle for 269-269
If he takes NM - needs Nevada and Alaska
If he takes NH - needs Nevada and Alaska for 269-269, ME-2 as well for 270.
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Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon
Dwarven Dragon
Atlas Politician
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,984
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -0.52

P P P
« Reply #39 on: November 07, 2016, 02:06:35 PM »
Well, I know I said I wasn't going to do it on IRC last night, but ultimately with the data from republican-leaning Quinnipiac University, the National poll from Monmouth, and the current 538 now-cast, I am going to put all of North Carolina, Nevada, and Florida in Clinton's column.

Alaska had a Clinton +3 poll recently that made dems very excited, but it hasn't been backed up by anything, and at the end of the day, Alaska has only voted for one Democrat since its inception as a state - LBJ in 1964. Hillary is not winning by an LBJ-esque margin, and it just seems that on a night where he is winning in GA, AZ, UT, OH, IA, and NE-2, Trump losing in Alaska would be very weird. It may happen, sure, but I just can't predict it.

ME-2 is obviously very close, but I have to make a pick at this point. Ultimately, considering the fact that Clinton may get a mini-mini-surge from Comey's 2nd non-indictment, the fact that Maine hasn't split its electoral votes before, and the fact that Clinton leads or ties in three of the top four polls on 538 by weight, I am giving this one to Clinton. But I wouldn't be surprised by a Trump upset.

My final prediction shows Clinton winning by a margin of 323 EVs to 215 EVs. This does not take into account the possibility of faithless electors throughout the nation.
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