PA-2016/Quinnipiac: Sen. Toomey (R) up 10 vs. Sestak (user search)
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  PA-2016/Quinnipiac: Sen. Toomey (R) up 10 vs. Sestak (search mode)
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Author Topic: PA-2016/Quinnipiac: Sen. Toomey (R) up 10 vs. Sestak  (Read 8133 times)
Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon
Dwarven Dragon
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Posts: 31,980
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Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -0.52

P P P
« on: February 10, 2015, 09:00:12 AM »

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Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon
Dwarven Dragon
Atlas Politician
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,980
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -0.52

P P P
« Reply #1 on: February 10, 2015, 04:12:04 PM »

What was that magic number, again? 42%? If so, the lovely Senator Casey is in some serious trouble especially considering how long he has been around for people to start liking him. Tongue
The magic number PBrower states is 44%.

The thing that makes his theory really preposterous, is that under it, 44-43 approval, 44-35 approval, and 44-50 approval all mean the same thing. This is because it's based on just the approval number and not the margin between that and the disapproval number. Which is just silly and stupid beyond belief.
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Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon
Dwarven Dragon
Atlas Politician
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,980
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -0.52

P P P
« Reply #2 on: February 10, 2015, 04:37:08 PM »

From a look at his thread, it seems PBrower has decided to ignore this poll, as he still has Toomey in the 20% shading. The usual "I only believe polls that I like" practice is present.
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Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon
Dwarven Dragon
Atlas Politician
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,980
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -0.52

P P P
« Reply #3 on: February 11, 2015, 11:39:48 AM »

Quinnipiac rightly overshadowed it but it should still be noted that PPP released a poll yesterday, too, showing Toomey up 6% from his most recent approval rating in a PPP poll.

So pbrower really has to give it up with the "BUT 28%!!!" routine.

I DID!

I said that it could be an outlier. But Senator Toomey could be very close to his ceiling. Pennsylvania is a tough state for right-wing Republicans. 
But are you now admitting that Toomey might survive? Or are you still sticking to your ridiculous "Toomey has a 0% chance of winning, NO MATTER WHAT!!!" assertion that you made when the 28% poll came out?
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Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon
Dwarven Dragon
Atlas Politician
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,980
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -0.52

P P P
« Reply #4 on: February 11, 2015, 05:15:54 PM »

Quinnipiac rightly overshadowed it but it should still be noted that PPP released a poll yesterday, too, showing Toomey up 6% from his most recent approval rating in a PPP poll.

So pbrower really has to give it up with the "BUT 28%!!!" routine.

I DID!

I said that it could be an outlier. But Senator Toomey could be very close to his ceiling. Pennsylvania is a tough state for right-wing Republicans. 
But are you now admitting that Toomey might survive? Or are you still sticking to your ridiculous "Toomey has a 0% chance of winning, NO MATTER WHAT!!!" assertion that you made when the 28% poll came out?

0%? Did I ever say 0%? I would not give "0%" for the chance of Mali winning a medal at the 2018 Winter Olympic Games... yet. 0% involves reversal of time, alteration of history, people dead for a year rising from the dead...    The prediction was not so ridiculous when Toomey had a 28% approval rating.

Let's go on a trip down memory lane, shall we?(these are all things you've said. wording is yours, bolding is mine):

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To be sure, having an approval rating at 28% twenty-two months before the election isn't quite as bad as having a 27% approval rating nine months before the election... but not even Barack Obama can campaign his way out of that level of disapproval.

I call it here: Republicans are going to cut their losses with Senator Toomey very fast. He's a bad fit for Pennsylvania, barely getting elected in the wave election of 2010, the sort who loses in a high-participation Presidential election.  They probably have a better chance of picking up an open Senate seat in California than they have of holding onto this one. 

I'm not calling a Democratic wave yet. [/quote]

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I can't find the post right now, but I also remember you saying somewhere that you considered PA-SEN safe D and NC-SEN likely D.

So while you may not have said 0% outright, you certainly were strongly implying it.
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