If he can effectively articulate a case against top down government and runs on prison and criminal justice reform as well as school choice, he could make inroads, but no Republican will crack 25%.
One problem Romney had was that he didn't do any minority outreach whatsoever. If any candidate this time around goes out of their way to speak to minority voters, they should do better than Mitt.
No republican will even come close to 25% of the black vote.
Generic R should get to about 10% (2004 levels), but depending on the candidate and the national climate, I could see it ranging anywhere from 6 (Romney's total) to 15%. Due to Obama's absence from the presidential ticket, the republican candidate in 2016 will do better than Romney did among blacks, absent a 2008-style democratic wave.
