NY-11 Special Election Thread

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Has anyone polled this race yet?

BTW, Per the AP results page for this election, there's also a state assembly special election being held on the same day as the house race, in the 43rd assembly district.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Does anyone expect Gentile to get within 15 points? within 10?

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Results for Tonight: http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2015/by_state/NY_Page_0505.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS

Polls closing in seven hours and 25 minutes.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

2 precincts are in, Gentile is leading with 16 votes to Donovan's 11!  Lane has 1 vote.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Not anymore. 14% of the vote is now in, Donovan leading 60-39. However, the difference is less than 500 votes. Looks like turnout was pretty low.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

6% in for State Assembly District 43:

Richardson (WF): 53%
Patterson (I): 20%
Davis (I): 15%
Raitport (R): 12%

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

49% in, Donovan leading 58-40 but still no call. Difference of 2,000 and change.

24% in for State Assembly:

Richardson (WF): 63%
Patterson (I): 28%
Davis (I): 5%
Raitport (R): 4%

Richardson is leading Davis by ~400 votes.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

With 72% reporting, Donovan has won the NY-11 Special Election, 58 percent to 41 percent, a margin of about 4,140 votes!

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

43% in for State Assembly:

Richardson (WF): 57%
Patterson (I): 26%
Raitport (R): 12%
Davis (I): 4%

Richardson is leading by nearly 1,000 votes.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Donovan moves up to 60-39 with 86% reporting.


73% in for State Assembly:

Richardson (WF): 52%
Patterson (I): 26%
Raitport (R): 19%
Davis (I): 4%

Richardson is leading by over 1,500 votes, this one looks over, but no call yet.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

State Assembly District 43 is called for Richardson, who leads Patterson 48-25 with 78% reporting! Raitport is at 24% and Davis is at 3%.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Final Results:

NY-11 Special:

Donovan (R) - 23,409; 59%
Gentile (D) - 15,808; 40%
Lane (G) - 527; 1%

State Assembly District 43:

Richardson (WF) - 4,176; 51%
Patterson (I) - 2,030; 25%
Raitport (R) - 1,691; 21%
Davis (I) - 308; 4%

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

That turnout is pathetic. Special elections really need to be banned.

All because Democrats can't figure out how to get their voters to fill out an oval on a piece of paper? Just suspend democracy for 2 years for congressional vacancies or allow a bureaucrat to appoint? Not likely.

Apparently Republicans can't either, considering Donovan got ~30,000 less votes than Grimm, in an election that was already extremely low turnout to begin with.

Yeah, but they still can do it better then Democrats. I can only laugh at Democratic voter's complete impotence in specials. And without Obama motivating minority vote in 2016 - not sure that Democratic base (which is the same minorities now, with white voters more and more deserting party) will bother to turn out next year..

Minorities heavily turned out for bores like Gore and Kerry, so they definitely will for Hillary.

The Turnout that Obama got isn't even comparable to what Gore/Kerry got.

Hillary may be able to match the Hispanic turnout, but I don't think she can hold the republican nominee to 27% of the hispanic vote like Obama did, because I think the republicans are smart enough to not talk about self deportation again. The republican nominee almost certainly will get 30%, maybe 35%, perhaps even 40% of the hispanic vote.

Black Turnout isn't going to match 2012 in 2016. Not Happening. Also, black support, without a black on the ticket, should go back to 89-91% as opposed to the 93% that Obama got, barring a terrible republican nominee.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

So is that turnout about 10%?

let's see here...

New York State Population is ~19,750,000, and there are 29 congressional districts. Districts are supposed to be equal population, so one congressional district should be about 1/29 of the state population, which is ~681,035 people. 39,746 votes were cast last night (23,409 for Donovan, 15,808 for Gentile, and 527 for lane per http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2015/by_state/NY_Page_0505.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS .)

per http://datacenter.kidscount.org/data/tables/99-total-population-by-child-and-adult-populations?loc=1&loct=2#detailed/2/34/false/36,868,867,133,38/39,40,41/416,417, kids make up about 22% of new york's population. 531,207 is 78% of 681,035 Take 39,746/531,207, and we get 7.48% Turnout. Pathetic.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

So is that turnout about 10%?

let's see here...

New York State Population is ~19,750,000, and there are 29 congressional districts. Districts are supposed to be equal population, so one congressional district should be about 1/29 of the state population, which is ~681,035 people. 39,746 votes were cast last night (23,409 for Donovan, 15,808 for Gentile, and 527 for lane per http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2015/by_state/NY_Page_0505.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS .)

So, take 39,746/681,035, and we get 5.84% Turnout. Utterly Pathetic.

WTF? That's not how you calculate turnout. You do realize babies aren't allowed to vote, right? Stop making dumb posts you moderate bigot.

post edited, but quit following me around.