Rating the Gubernatorial Races

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Current Overall Prediction: PA, AR, IL, ME, and FL all flip (D+1)

Approximate odds of flipping (excluding races safe for the incumbent party):

1. PA (Chance of flipping: 97%) (Corbett should really just concede today)
2. AR (Chance of flipping: 67%)
3. IL (Chance of flipping: 60%)
4. ME (Chance of flipping: 54%)
5. FL (Chance of flipping: 51%)
6. CT (Chance of flipping: 48%)
7. WI (Chance of flipping: 48%)
8. MI (Chance of flipping: 46%)
9. CO (Chance of flipping: 45%)
10. MA (Chance of flipping: 40%)
11. GA (Chance of flipping: 37%)
12. AZ (Chance of flipping: 35%)
13. SC (Chance of flipping: 35%)
14. OH (Chance of flipping: 30%)
15. NM (Chance of flipping: 12%)
16. RI  (Chance of flipping: 12%)
17. IA (Chance of flipping: 10%)
18. MD (Chance of flipping: 10%)
19. MN (Chance of flipping: 7%)

A note about KS, NE, and HI: All of these probably have about a 15-20% chance of flipping, but I don't permit myself to further change the ratings of races I rated safe at an earlier point in the cycle, so all three will remain at Safe D/R.