PA-PPP: Wolf up 25

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Keep in mind that professional political prognosticators often don't change the rating the same day new polling data is released.  If this results in a rating change (i.e. Cook and CNN moving it out of Toss-Up), such change may not happen until 3 or 4 days from now. Prognasticators have other commitments, and typically each site is a team effort, not a solo thing, so it takes time to get opinions from the whole team on whether a rating change is merited or not.

Fortunately or Unfortunately, I don't need that amount of time. Both the Rasmussen Poll and the PPP poll find an even greater advantage for Wolf than Quinnipiac found back in February (Quinnipiac found a 19 point advantage), and while Corbett is an incumbent, that doesn't matter when you only have a 27% approval rating and you're a republican in a purple-blue state. It's time to upgrade Wolf's chances.

PA-Gov: Rating Changed from 'Leaning Democratic' to 'Strongly Leaning Democratic'.

If Corbett's still trailing by this much in Mid-July, I'll be moving this to Safe D, but for now, he still has 5 months to turn things around, so Strong Lean sounds good for right now.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Most important question of the day: If Wolf wins by 20%+ and gives Dems a trifecta in PA next year, can they legally redraw the congressional map?

Not until the census is taken again in 2020.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

What's the most an incumbent governor has ever lost by?

Lief, his loss would be historic!!! No PA governor has ever been defeated.

Actually, no. While it has not happened in modern times, incumbent governors of PA have been defeated before.

1820: Incumbent William Findlay was defeated by Joseph Hiester.
1835: Incumbent George Wolf was defeated by Joseph Ritner.
1838: Incumbent Joseph Ritner was defeated by David Porter.
1851: Incumbent William F. Johnston was defeated by William Bigler.
1854: Incumbent William Bigler was defeated by James Pollock.

It is also worth noting that from 1874-1968, PA governors were not allowed to serve consecutive terms, so while part of the reason we haven't seen an incumbent defeated since 1854 is because PA has had governors who were seen as good by the people of PA, the other part of the reason that the last time an incumbent was defeated was back in 1854 was indeed because of the fact that defeating an incumbent was impossible for nearly a century in PA because incumbents could not legally run for consecutive terms.

So, in short, Corbett's loss wouldn't be historic. It would be historic if we only look back 159 years, but if we look back further, we can find a total of 5 instances where incumbent governors of PA were defeated when they attempted to run for re-election.